Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett: UFC 324 betting odds and specials

• Gaethje vs Pimblett is for the interim UFC lightweight championship

• American Gaethje has lost three of his last seven bouts

• England's Pimblett is unbeaten in the UFC

• Click here for more UFC Betting markets this weekend

Justin Gaethje v Paddy Pimblett
T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
Sunday 04:30 (UK Time)

All eyes are on the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas in the early hours of Sunday morning for the latest offering from the Ultimate Fighting Championship. Paddy Pimblett challenges Justin Gaethje for the interim UFC lightweight championship in a clash you can follow on TV and live streaming apps.

Betfair offers odds on the winner of Gaethje v Pimblett, as well as a long list of specials. Bettors can predict the winning round, method of victory, total rounds, and more. There's something for everyone, but which gladiator will win and which bet offers the best odds?

Here I take a look at the recent form of both men, analyse the betting odds, and settle on my final prediction as I guide you through everything you need to know ahead of Saturday night (early Sunday morning for UK viewers).

Gaethje recent form fails to convince

Gaethje is a 37-year-old fighting out of Denver, Colorado. Known as Highlight, he's one of the top-ranked fighters in the lightweight division and would race through the pecking order with a win over Pimblett. Gaethje boasts more experience than his opponent, has been on the UFC's books for longer, and knows this is a great opportunity to improve his record.

Despite his qualities, Gaethje's recent form does little to inspire confidence in bettors. The American beat Rafael Fiziev over three rounds on UFC 313 last time out, impressing to bank a Fight of the Night bonus in Las Vegas. It's worth noting that the win over Fiziev happened last March, and Gaethje's recent record shows he's lost three of his previous seven bouts.

You can back Gaethje to win at 7/42.75 on the Betfair Sportsbook. The Method of Victory has a submission win at 25/126.00, with a points verdict trading at an eye-catching 5/16.00. With his last win coming on the scorecards, Gaethje, using his experience to impress the scoring judges, is sure to be a popular pick this weekend, especially with players who love finding the value.

Pimblett enters unbeaten in the UFC

Pimblett famously swapped competing in the Cage Warriors professional MMA promotion for the UFC in 2021. Since making the leap, the fighter from Liverpool hasn't looked back. He has featured seven times, securing seven wins. Taking a closer look at these results, we note that the Englishman scored three first-round wins. Fancy another? It's available to back at 7/24.50.

Pimblett was last in action on UFC 314 in Miami last April. He defeated Michael Chandler that evening, forcing a stoppage in the third round following a barrage of heavy strikes. That win proved the Brit is as dangerous on his feet as he is with his back to the mat. To stand any chance of extending his winning form, Paddy knows he must be at his best again.

Neither of Pimblett's last two fights travelled the scheduled three-round distance. He beat King Green by submission in Manchester before scoring that win over Chandler in Florida. Another victory is available at 4/9 on the Betfair app when gambling with the sportsbook. A KO/TKO win is 4/15.00, with the submission judged a more likely outcome at the 13/102.30 offered.

Baddy is a great bet

Pimblett faces the most important night of his career so far. Win in style, and the 31-year-old can look forward to many more. Victory would gain him temporary care of the UFC lightweight strap, opening the door to some money-spinning fights in 2026.

It certainly won't come easy against such an experienced and respected opponent, but I'm backing Paddy, though at 4/91.44 in the Match Result market, those odds don't reflect just how dangerous Gaethje will be when we get going in Vegas. So at a more attractive price we move into the Method  of Victory market where I'm backing Pimblett to win by submission. Interestingly, Paddy has already had three wins by sub in the UFC, including in the opening round against Green.

Need a little more convincing? The form shows that two of Justin's previous three losses have come by submission, including a round-one submission to Charles Oliveira at UFC 274. That's good enough for us, and the odds give us plenty to work with on Sunday morning.

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