Tour de France Betting Tips: Wout van Aert big odds at 11/1 for Stage 8

• Jasper Philipsen (7.613/2) and Arnaud De Lie (6.411/2) too short

• Wout van Aert (12.011/1) is favoured among punchier riders

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What's the stage like?

The finish to this 183km test features a dead-straight, slightly rising road, which should bring a wider group of sprinters into the mix for victory. The challenge will be whether they can survive what comes before to be able to contest that sprint. Five short, steep, categorised climbs in the first half of the stage are joined by a multitude of other uncategorised lumps and bumps meaning this is likely to be the most volatile stage so far.

Who are the favourites?

Arnaud De Lie (6.411/2) and Jasper Philipsen (7.613/2) have both shown an aptitude in the past on tougher sprint finishes, and both seem to be in form, having been peppering the stage standings in this year's Tour with close-ups and near-misses.

To my eyes, though, the market is misunderstanding the difficulty of this stage, and those odds look on the short side for two riders that may struggle to be close enough to the front of affairs to contest the finish.

Who are the most likely outsiders?

Better bets are to be found among the next riders in the market, particularly Wout van Aert (12.011/1), Biniam Girmay (12.011/1) and Mads Pedersen (12.011/1).

Of those, Pedersen looks least attractive. It's unclear how much his Stage 5 crash took out of him, and whilst he's certainly capable of winning this, I would want more certainty as to his form before taking those odds.

Girmay's Stage 3 win showed the excellent form he brings into the Tour, and it would be no surprise to see him taking another on a course that will suit him better.

The choice, though, is Wout van Aert (12.011/1). He defied his own doubts about the form he was in when "winning" the sprint on Stage 1, and had Philipsen not baulked him on Stage 6, he would likely have won there. A stage designed for van Aert, he's worth a heavy bet.

How will it affect the overall markets?

A day for the Yellow Jersey contenders to be wary and alert, as although time gaps in the General Classification are unlikely, the course is not straightforward and could bring with it some drama.

Of chief interest, though, will be the close race for the Points Classification.

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