Tour de France Tips: Pogacar value at 4/1 on Stage 14

• Jonas Vingegaard (4.3100/30) still has questions about his recovery
• Tadej Pogacar (5.04/1) might be feeling fatigue but should be favourite
• Carapaz (14.013/1) and Yates (10.09/1) might be given necessary freedoms to take stage
• Use Betfair's Safer Gambling during the 2024 Tour de France

What's the stage like?

151km into the high mountains of the Pyrenees. The first half is benign enough, before things ramp up with a trio of monsters: the super-category Tourmalet; the category two Hourquette'Ancizan; and the first summit finish on this year's Tour on the super-category Pla d'Adet, with over 10km of climbing averaging nearly 8%.

This could well be a decisive stage of the Tour, and will certainly see a few fantasists drop out of General Classification contention.

Who are the favourites?

Jonas Vingegaard (4.3100/30) used the Tourmalet to punish his rivals a year ago, and after his performance on Stage 11, has seemed to show an at least partial recovery from that horrific crash in the Tour of the Basque Country.

It's understandable why he's favourite, but Stage 11 was very different to what riders will face here, and a day with this amount of high altitude will be another unknown for Vingegaard. It would be no surprise to see him winning, but those odds aren't value.

The narrative around Tadej Pogacar (5.04/1) is that Stage 11 saw the inevitable beginnings of fatigue setting in after his long season and recent Giro exploits. Perhaps. But assuming the riders go head-to-head on the final climb to grind it out, the value surely lies in the rider with proven recent form.

Who are the most likely outsiders?

Simon Yates (10.09/1) has been very quiet on the Tour to date, will relish a route like this, and might well be given leeway by the General Classification favourites to go into the distance and secure a win.

Favoured, though, is Richard Carapaz (14.013/1), who has been more active in the race so far, and seems to be finding top form. He relishes these high-mountain stages and is sufficiently far down in the General Classification to be given the freedom he needs to take the win.

How will it affect the overall markets?

It is unlikely anything will be finally decided in the General Classification after this stage, but expect the likely narrative of the last week to be more clear by its end.

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