Tour de France Betting Tips: Mathieu van der Poel at 7/1 to come alive on Stage 18

• Wout van Aert (6.86/1) valid favourite but will have distracting team duties

• Mathieu van der Poel (8.07/1) can make up for disappointment on Stage 9

• Stevie Williams (50.049/1) has an outside chance on second attempt

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What's the stage like?

An attritional 179km that sees riders hit with a series of moderate climbs, with five category three tests and a long drag up to the finish town of Barcelonnette. It's another stage that breakaway hopefuls will have circled as having potential for solo glory, but it's worth noting that the route is similar to that used on Stage 4 of the 2020 Tour, where Primoz Roglic outsprinted Tadej Pogacar to take the stage win.

Today's finish is slightly easier than in 2020, but with nearly three weeks of fatigue in the legs, few riders will have the appetite to suffer in a breakaway.

Who are the favourites?

Wout van Aert (6.86/1) and Matthieu van der Poel (8.07/1) are the obvious favourites for this stage that feels like a one-day race.

Van Aert - although inconsistent - has shown the better form in the Tour so far, and probably deserves slight favouritism. His role as super-domestique to Jonas Vingegaard presents a risk, though, as just how much freedom he has to pursue individual glory is doubted, especially since his team leader's second place came under assault on Stage 17.

Van der Poel is favoured, then. He might have underwhelmed on Stage 9 - which seemed made for him - but, lead-out duties aside, he has kept a low profile since, presumably with this stage in mind.

Who are the most likely outsiders?

Magnus Cort Nielson (15.014/1), Ben Healy (20.019/1) and Oier Lazkano (30.029/1) are all possibles, but they would all need an underperformance from the favourites to feature, and are not value for the stage win.

Recommended bet Stevie Williams (50.049/1) made a valiant effort for glory on Stage 17, but was outgunned by better climbers, but it's worth having a speculative interest in the Welshman again, who will prefer this slightly easier route.

How will it affect the overall markets?

The Points Classification got marginally more interesting after Biniam Girmay's crash on Stage 16, but otherwise the focus here will again be on whether Remco Evenepoel can disrupt the podium positions in the General Classification.

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