Masters Snooker Day 5 Tips: Take heed of these head-to-head records

• O'Sullivan to dominate Williams again

• Back three or more centuries

• Lisowski to brush aside Vafaei

Heading into the quarter-finals, Ronnie O'Sullivan is red-hot favourite to land what would be an eighth Masters title. At 3.02/1, his odds have almost halved since the start of the tournament and he actually traded down to 2.6413/8 yesterday when it looked for all the world that Judd Trump was to be eliminated.

Nevertheless, given how poorly his principal remaining rival played, O'Sullivan backers are entitled to be oozing confidence.

Oh how foolish it was to disobey one of snooker's golden rules - to back the greatest player of all-time in his best major championship, with his preferred single table format, in his home city.

O'Sullivan has bossed Williams for decades

Another golden rule of snooker is to believe head-to-head records. They are meaningful, especially the more matches the pair have played against one another. When it comes to O'Sullivan versus Mark Williams, we are presented by one of the most revealing and shocking set of figures.

They both turned professional in 1992, and have been at the top of the game ever since. Granted, Ronnie has been more consistent but don't take anything away from Mark's extraordinary career. Yet O'Sullivan leads their head-to-head by a stunning 33-8 margin, and by 270-191 in frames.

I can't explain why. Perhaps his respect for Williams is so great that Ronnie is always ultra-focused. But that wouldn't explain very dissimilar head-to-heads against John Higgins, or Mark Selby. Perhaps the snooker craft that Williams employs so well against lesser opponents, and enables him to win when playing badly, is negated against O'Sullivan.

Take the enhanced centuries odds

Whatever the reason, the numbers are stark and therefore, despite the Welshman looking every inch a title contender in his own right, I can only see one winner in this match. Try a 6-3, 6-4 correct score combo and add the latter to the daily double.

Another very appealing bet in this match is an #OddsBoost. Three or more centuries in the match is enhanced to 5/2, which strikes me as very generous given the potential quality of this match.

Daily double (pays £22.75 to a £0.5 stake)

Ronnie O'Sullivan to win 6-4

Jack Lisowski to win 6-2

The evening match presents similar dynamics. In seven previous encounters, Jack Lisowski leads Hossein Vafaei 6-1, and 32-17 in frames. Again, this doesn't reflect their general standing. There really hasn't been that much between their standards.

Lisowski set for another strong major bid

Lisowski beat Vafaei in the previous major, in a repeat of their 2021 UK Championship match-up. Just as with Williams, my instincts are very positive about Vafaei, but the numbers are too clear to ignore. Plus Jack's standard in recent majors has been up there with the very best.

Here, let's take 4/5 about Lisowski winning the -1.5 Frame Handicap. This bet landed in both major encounters and in five of their seven in total, including the three played over the shorter, best-of-seven distance.

Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty