Masters Snooker Betting: One player to back from each quarter

• Tough defence for Robertson

• Allen under-rated for back-to-back majors

• Selby looks back to his best

The second major championship of the season is upon us and with it, what effectively amounts to the highest calibre last-16 line up of the season. Neil Robertson defends the title, but is still chasing a first title of this season.

Sadly, the field at Alexandra Palace is slightly weaker than usual, due to the depressing news that Zhao Xintong and Yan Bingtao are suspended while claims of match fixing are investigated. Their places are taken by the very able David Gilbert and Hossein Vafaei.

Robertson unappealing at favourite's odds

Despite that failure to win recently, Robertson starts favourite. He was in superb form towards the end of 2022 and lost absolutely nothing in defeat to Mark Selby in the English Open semis. Nevertheless, he's very opposable as favourite for a number of reasons.

First, defending any title is never easy. Robertson has only previously successfully defended three titles and failed in all five defences of majors. Second, the price. Around 4/1 is plenty short enough to beat four top-class opponents.

Resurgent Murphy dangerous at big odds

Third, I'm very wary of his first opponent. Shaun Murphy's career has looked under threat in recent years, due to injury and even motivation. However he looked somewhat resurgent towards the end of 2022, playing some great snooker to beat Judd Trump in the previous major and notching several good wins at the English Open, before being downed by a trademark, remarkable Selby comeback.

The Masters often proves a stage where previously out-of-form top-16 players suddenly return to form. The Christmas break may help in that regard. Thus Murphy, whose record against the Aussie is competitive, could be good value for an upset. Can he go all the way and win the title at 25/1? I suspect that's a bridge too far.

Back Wilson for another big run in a major

Consequently, a player who has cost this column fortunes in recent years (especially majors) gets yet another gig. Kyren Wilson starts out against Stuart Bingham in what will be their fourth major match-up in three years. He lost two of those but has been in far superior form of late.

Perhaps Bingham returns to form on this stage, where he won the title three years ago. However there has been very little evidence of it this term and, 2020 aside, his record in the event is distinctly ordinary. At 16/1, Wilson rates a solid each-way bet.

Improved Allen still under-rated

In the second quarter, Mark Allen takes on Barry Hawkins while Judd Trump faces Ryan Day. On this season's evidence, Allen should be favourite and the leaner, vastly improved Northern Irishman yet again looks under-rated in the betting.

Winning two majors in a row is tough at any time, but Allen's form is impossible to argue with. He's won the Northern Ireland Open with plenty to spare, the UK Championship from a big deficit in the final, and lost the British Masters final. He was only thwarted in the English Open semis by a marvellous Luca Brecel performance.

Granted, he lost to Trump 6-1 in the Champion of Champions but he still leads their overall head-to-head 12-11, and that record was built before Allen lost five stone, when he was clearly the inferior player. Judd's game, meanwhile, remains under a cloud. He's making far too many unforced errors.

Tournament specialist Hawkins respected

A quick note about Hawkins. He has become a tournament specialist, reaching the final twice in his last six attempts and only missing a third by a deciding frame in 2017. He's had a very poor season to date but could plausibly find some form at short notice, on a stage he loves. 40/1 offers a tempting each-way alternative to Allen.

The circumstances behind Vafaei's debut may be unfortunate, but I'm glad to see the Iranian on a major stage. It won't be his last. The open question is whether he will immediately take to the single table format, against Selby, who ended 2022 with an overdue win at the English Open.

Selby to shine again from fair draw

I'm in no doubt that Selby is back and that he is the one to beat in the third section. Either John Higgins or Jack Lisowski will present a tough quarter-final hurdle but the Jester is entitled to start strong favourite against either. Selby invariably gets stronger as tournaments progress, making 9.08/1 about him landing a fourth Masters title a very fair offer.

One of snooker's golden rules is to back Ronnie O'Sullivan in this event. Granted, it hasn't landed in six renewals but a bet each time at this year's odds of 5.85/1 would have yielded an overall profit, and he is the all-time record-holder with seven titles.

Brecel now a legitimate majors contender

I wouldn't put anyone off taking those odds. Whether Ronnie plays Mark Williams or David Gilbert in the quarter-finals, he'll boast a dominant head-to-head record. To do so, however, in addition to the above three selections, would be too expensive for the column. So I'll take an outsider instead.

Luca Brecel can beat Ronnie in the first round. He is almost as naturally talented as the Rocket and very much on the up. The Belgian has reached a major final already at last year's UK Championship and was in stellar form prior to Christmas, reaching the English Open final. I'd make him favourite against Gilbert and roughly even money versus Williams, should he pull off the initial upset.

*Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty