Longchamp Racing Tips: Moon to shine in Sunday's Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

• German star can justify €120,000 supplementary fee

• Darnation tipped to take the Prix Marcel Boussac

• Sauterne each-way value against odds-on Kinross

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Longchamp - 15:05 - Back Fantastic Moon and Feed The Flame

When I first looked at the Arc on Monday morning, I concluded that Feed The Flame and Mr Hollywood would be my choices. Both had run well in defeat in races won by Fantastic Moon, which for some reason was not entered.

Disappointed that the German Derby and Prix Niel winner wasn't in the likely line-up or betting, I then found out his owners were considering supplementing him for €120,000 rather than run him at the Breeders' Cup meeting. By Wednesday it was confirmed Fantastic Moon would run, so the 11/112.00 shot logically had to be my Arc choice.

Why Fantastic Moon 11/112.00? He is unbeaten over 12 furlongs including a Grade 1, his latest win from Feed The Flame was a career-best and over the course and distance of the Arc.

Contrast that with the 5/23.50 favourite, Ace Impact. The French Derby winner is five from five, but hasn't raced over the distance, did not run his best race last time and has never run at Longchamp.

Hukum 6/17.00 has to go on any shortlist having won the King George. One of two Grade 1 wins over a mile and a half this year, the only box he doesn't tick is course experience.

Last year's Irish Derby winner, Westover 13/27.50, was only a head behind Hukum at Ascot in July. He is tough and resolute and had won the Group 1 Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud before that. I would be surprised if he won the Arc, but would expect him to make the first six, for sure.

Continuous 11/26.50 won the St Leger and a Leger winner has yet to win the Arc. He won a Group 2 at the York Ebor meeting but was comfortably beaten by King Of Steel over 12 furlongs at Royal Ascot, which is enough for him to get the thumbs-down from me.

Feed The Flame 8/19.00 is a course and distance winner, and his trainer Pascal Bary believes his colt can avenge his recent defeat by Fabulous Moon as he was not as sharp as hoped in the Arc trial.

Bay Bridge's recent win on the all-weather at Kempton was his first start over a mile and four. A Group 1 winner over 10 furlongs, he is unproven on turf over the Arc trip; 11/112.00 looks plenty short enough.

The Japanese runner Through Seven Seas 11/112.00 has not won a Gr1 back home, but in his latest race was only beaten a neck by Equinox - one of the best horses in Japan and winner of the Dubai Sheema Classic in March.

Westover was three lengths back in Dubai so, using Equinox as a yardstick, Through Seven Seas comes out a better horse than Westover or Hukum, yet is five points longer.

The in-form Free Wind 20/121.00 has won a Group 2 and a Group 3 over 12 furlongs in 2022, but those were filles-only races and this will be a tough test for her.

Onesto is the only one of the others with a Group 1 win over 12 furlongs at Longchamp on its CV. He was only 10th when 11/1 for last year's Arc, though, and is 28/129.00 this time round.

Best of the outsiders, in my book, would be Mr Hollywood 33/134.00. He was only a couple of lengths behind Fantastic Moon in the German Derby and has since come within a neck of winning the Group 1 Preis von Baden, recognised as the best German Arc trial.

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Longchamp - 13:15 - No bet

Three of the four unbeaten colts in the line-up - Beauvatier, Henry Adams, Jayarebe and Native American - are going to lose their 100 per cent record. Maybe all four will!

Beauvatier finished a length ahead of Zabiari at Deauville, and a similar distance ahead of Evade over seven in a Group 3 here at Longchamp.

Zabiari has since won a Group 3 over a mile here, though, and will be supported by many to get his revenge on Beauvatier.

Henry Adams won a Group 3 at Leopardstown and maybe has more potential than his stablemate Unquestionable, placed in Ireland's top juvenile races over six furlongs at the Curragh since winning a maiden over that trip on his second start there.

Richard Hannon's Rosallion was a disappointment last time at Doncaster where he was odds-on for a Group 2.

It would be wrong to diss Native American, who was a willing winner of both his races. A 9/110.00 shot, he could well be placed.

Jayarebe's Newmarket win was a surprise to punters, if not his trainer Brian Meehan, who has always thought a lot of him. It's difficult to evaluate that victory but the second and third have won since. His Sportsbook odds of 12/113.00 are about right.

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Longchamp - 13.50 - Back Darnation

Karl Burke's Darnation 9/43.25 appeals in the Prix Marcel Boussac at 13:50.

She has done everything you would look for. She's won a Group 2 over the trip at Doncaster on soft; and ran right away from her field in the Prestige Stakes over seven on soft at Glorious Goodwood befor that.

Freville is the only course and distance winner in the line-up. As that win last time out was in a trial for this race, you would expect her to go close, despite being 12/113.00 in the Sportsbook.

Les Pavots 9/110.00 is a classy Gr2 winner on heavy stepping up a furlong.

Opera Singer's 9/43.25 Group success in Ireland came over a mile on good going, so there are no worries about her stamina.

Rose Bloom 9/110.00 would be another to consider, on the basis that you can only beat what you are up against and she has won her conditions races stylishly.

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Longchamp - 15.50 - Back Muskoka

The French 1,000 Guineas and Oaks winner, Blue Rose Cen, is 9/43.25 favourite to get back on the winning trail in the Prix de l'Opera at 15:50.

The first loss came in the Nassau at Good wood, where she had no luck in running, getting stuck on the far rail. The second defeat was here in the Prix Vermeille when she failed to stay 12 furlongs.

You can take the view that she has gone off the boil, and oppose her. Alternatively you may think she is back over her best trip at a track where she has won four times over a mile and is going to be hard to beat.

Al Husn 7/18.00 won the Nassau, so this is an obvious race for her. Any enthusiasm has to tempered by the fact that she was ninth of 10, three lengths behind Stay Alert, in her only subsequent race - the Yorkshire Oaks.

Jannah Rose 6/17.00 was unplaced in the French Oaks, for which she was second favourite, but has won her other three races including the Group 1 Prix Saint-Alary over course and distance in which Crown Princesse 20/121.00 was a close third.

Lumiere Rock 7/18.00 was only beaten a head by Jannah Rose in the Prix Alex Head at Deauville last time out, so is worth her place in the line-up.

We have a tendency to underrate German form, so maybe their Oaks winner Muskoka 16/117.00 is better than has been made out.

She is certainly tough, and on a line through Sea The Lady Muskoka is the equal of Jannah Rose.

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I'll dodge the Prix de l'Abbaye at 16:25, as I rarely tip one that makes the first three, let alone wins.

As a rule you want to be drawn low which is not good if you fancy the favourite Highfield Princess 3/14.00, drawn in stall 14.

She looks far too short, given she has been beaten in her last two races.

Longchamp - 17.00 - Back Sauterne

The Prix de la Foret at 17:00 is much more my thing.

Kinross [Evens] rightly heads the betting, having won the race when favourite 12 months ago.

He won the two Group 2 races over seven furlongs staged in the UK this summer - at Glorious Goodwood and York - and is impossible to fault.

Fang 12/113.00 has won the Group 3 Prix du Pin over course and distance this year and last but was no match for Kinross in this last October, trailing in seventh.

Dabawa, National Service, and Breizh Sky - all 20/121.00 in the Sportsbook - chased him home last time out, and I wouldn't expect them to come out on top this time.

The Sportsbook is right to put Sauterne in as second favourite, but 5/16.00 seems over generous for an in-form course and distance winner.

The three-year-old filly was third in the French 1,000 here, and last time out won the Group 1 Prix du Moulin beating Big Rock, one of the top milers in Europe.

Sauterne is at the top of her game, with a record of 3231 in Group 1 races, the second coming in the Prix Jean Prat over seven on soft at Deauville where Shouldvebeenaring 14/115.00 was four lengths back in seventh.

Kinross is the likely winner but you should never be afraid of one horse.

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