Patrick Weaver anticipates a home win in the final Group 1 of the year in France...
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Ellison, Fry and Fanshawe runners in Prix Royal Oak
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Double Major napped to take prize for France
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The Good Man fancied each-way
It's not often that I preview a Group One in Paris with all three English-trained runners from, shall we say, less fashionable yards.
The Gosdens, O'Briens etc have given the Prix Royal Oak at 14:50 a miss, which gives Brian Ellison, Harry Fry, and James Fanshawe a better chance of their first Group winner of the year on either side of the Channel.
Ellison's Tashkhan 4/15.00 is among the coterie rated 110 or higher and he has a good record at Longchamp. Fourth to Big Call, The Good Man and Moon Wolf in the Prix de Barbeville on very soft in April - inches ahead of Diva Donna and Bubble Gift - he was a distane third to Kyprios in the Group 1 Prix du Cadran 12 months ago.
Most recently beaten under a length with top weight of 10st 2lb in the Cesarewitch, the five-year-old is rightly near the front of the betting.
We've not seen Metier 9/110.00 since he won the Chester Cup off a mark of 97 in May. That was a career-best, taking him to his current of 101. Much as it would be nice to see Saffie Osborne in the winner's enclosure, Metier will need to improve 10lb to make a race of it with the likes of Tashkhan and The Good Man.
James Fanshawe's Novel Legend 20/121.00 has won handicaps over two miles off 81, 85 and 95 this year. Beaten 20 lengths in the Irish Cesarewitch last month, he, too, needs a career-best to be placed in this Group 1.
And so to the home team. Al Nayyir 15/28.50 and Double Major 4/15.00 are the two that are very much on the up.
Al Nayyir got the better of Uxmal, Caius Chorister and Bubble Gift 8/19.00 in a tight finish to the Prix Scaramouche at Saint-Cloud, since when the third has returned to France to win a Group 3.
In August Al Nayyir finished a length and three quarters ahead of Haya Zark 14/115.00 on soft ground over an extended 12 furlongs in the Grand Prix de Deauville - which may or may not be relevant given the Prix Royal Oak is over three furlongs further.
Back in April, Double Major got off the mark on his second start in a 10-furlong maiden on heavy at Toulouse.
It would be exagerrating to say his rise has been meteoric but in August he was beaten a head by Gallerist in a Group 2 here at Longchamp before returning to nab the Group 2 Prix Chaudenay over a mile and seven from Dermot Weld's Harbour Wind.
The Good Man 5/16.00 is the other Group 2 winner in the line-up. That success came in the Prix Maurice de Nieuil here over a mile and six on good to soft and he had previously been placed in Group races over course and distance.
He has run 32 times, yet this is his first Group 1 which would concern me. That stat makes this six-year-old an unlikely winner, but he has made the first three in 22 of those races. At his opening odds of 7/1 he appealed each-way, and still does at 5s . . . only less so.
The five-year-old mare, Diva Donna 8/19.00, has not won since July of last year but ran her best race to date when second to Sea Silk Road in the Group 1 Prix de Royallieu at the Arc meeting here.
She was 97/1, the least fancied of the 14 runners, and it remains to be seen if she can run as well again. Al Nayyir, Skazino and The Good Man finished in front of her at Deauville in the summer, but she has definitely improved since then.
Haya Zark is the only one in the line-up to have won two Group 3s this year. They were both on very soft going but over 10 and 12 furlongs. This mile and seven-plus will be new to him, and a severe test of his stamina.
Skazino 10/111.00 has lost some of the sparkle he had when runner-up in this race in 2021. Al Nayyir had his measure in a Listed at Deauville in July, as did The Good Man in a Group 2 here at Longchamp the same month. He is as willing as he was, it's just that he has lost a winning turn of foot.
Galego Star 50/151.00 is a handicapper that shouldn't be in the line-up. He will likely be double his overnight odds at the off.
Five of the last 10 runnings have been won by horses trained in England, and Tashkhan is well capable of making it six from 11.
Half of those winners were three-year-olds, and I fancy the only one of that age, Double Major, to shade it.