Kentucky Derby Tips: Mark Milligan siding with a 28/1 shot each-way

• Mark fancies a big-priced one in the Kentucky Derby

• Ex-Gosden filly can win earlier on the card

• Appleby to continue his good Stateside run

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Saturday sees the 150th running of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs, without doubt one of the fiercest tests of mettle for three-year-olds anywhere in the world.

The 'Run for the Roses' will see a field of 20 line up on the Louisville dirt, and it looks sure to be fast and furious with plenty of front-running types in opposition.

We have an intriguing proposition regarding the market leaders too, with last year's top US juvenile Fierceness one of those that tends to be forwardly placed, while the Coolmore-owned Sierra Leone is a deep closer who will be grinding down the home straight.

Throw in a pair of Japanese challengers - one of whom looks to have particularly strong prospects - and everything is set for a cracker of a race.

Fierceness has no easy task from wide draw

Todd Pletcher's Fierceness has been something of an all-or-nothing performer in his career to date.

A wide-margin winner on debut, he then blew out trying Grade 1 company on his next start but rebounded to take the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita in November.

His reappearance effort at Gulfstream is probably best forgiven after he got slammed hard from both sides at the start, and he left that effort well behind when romping home in the Florida Derby last time.

That was an exceptional performance on the clock and he could simply be a cut above his peers, but his task isn't an easy one from stall 17 with plenty of pace to his inside.

Sierra Leone will need some luck

Chad Brown's Sierra Leone has been getting better with each start and should probably be unbeaten, his one defeat coming when still exhibiting signs of greenness when beaten a nose in Grade 2 company at Aqueduct on just his second start.

He's a big, powerful type who cost a packet ($2.3m) and is very much bred for this task, looking better the further he's gone, and likely to benefit from the 1m 2f trip that he encounters here.

His task is also a tricky one, though, a deep closer who's drawn in stall 2 meaning he's going to need plenty of luck to negotiate a decent passage.

It's probably not in doubt that Fierceness and Sierra Leone have the best form to date, but with both likely to need their fair share of good fortune, it makes sense to swerve them at relatively short prices.

Can Japan to finally claim the prize?

Japan's Forever Young is unbeaten in five starts and hopes will be high that he can give that nation the Kentucky Derby win that they desperately crave.

He's also an honest type who keeps grinding away and seem relatively versatile tactically, though whether his form quite measures up the best of the US three-year-olds remains to be seen.

While respecting the chances of the trio mentioned so far, I think it's worth taking a shot against them each-way, particularly with the Sportsbook paying four places.

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Back Domestic Product each-way, four places, @ 28/129.00 in 23:57 Churchill

If Chad Brown is to win the Kentucky Derby for the first time most people will assume it to be with Sierra Leone, though he has another runner in the race who appears to be going under the radar.

Domestic Product has attracted the services of one of the best riders in the USA in Irad Ortiz and has form that closely ties in with Fierceness from the Holy Bull a couple of starts ago.

The son of Practical Joke won the Tampa Bay Derby last time, showing plenty of determination to come out on top in a race run at just a steady tempo.

And that last point is an important one.

Plenty will dismiss his chances simply because his speed figures look slow, but his last two races just haven't been conducive to recording big figures.

This is a horse who could thrive in a big field with a strong pace in front of him - he's also quite versatile tactically and is unlikely to get too far behind.

It's also worth noting that Irad Ortiz could have landed on plenty of other horses in this field but ends up here - and it's not often you get to back this top trainer/jockey combo at 28/129.00.

Domestic Product may not be quite good enough in the final shake down but we're getting a big enough price to compensate.

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Back Coppice @ 7/24.50 in 18:56 Churchill

There are some cracking supporting races on the Churchill Downs card, with Charlie Appleby targeting several of them, while Frankie Dettori is also in action.

The Grade 2 Churchill Distaff Mile Stakes (18:56) sees Dettori teaming up with Chad Brown on the ex-John & Thady Gosden filly Coppice, and she looks to have an excellent chance of kicking off her Stateside career with a win.

A winner three times in the UK last season, she also ran some solid races in defeat against some of the best fillies around, including when fifth to Nashwa in the Falmouth and fourth to Inspiral in the Sun Chariot on final start.

She also appears to be training really well in the US based on the video footage I've seen, with the only slight doubt over chances being her rather wide draw in stall 11.

However, Dettori is a past master at getting good early positions from tricky draws, so I'm not overly concerned by that, and she could simply be a cut above this opposition.

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Back Naval Power @ 9/43.25 in 22:27 Churchill

Another runner who can outclass the locals is the Charlie Appleby-trained Naval Power in the 1m 1f Grade 1 Turf Classic (22:27).

This is again one who's drawn a touch wide, but he also has the services of Frankie Dettori in the saddle, and I expect him to be simply too good for this bunch.

Naval Power has clearly had his share of problems having missed most of last season, but he came back in emphatic fashion at Meydan in February before finding only his top-class stablemate Master of The Seas too good in Grade 1 company at Keeneland last time.

If anything, the step back up in trip from a mile last time should show him in an even better light and I'll have a long face if he's beaten.

Naval Power looks the best bet on the card for me and merits NAP status.

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