-
Art Power a worthy favourite but hardly value at 2/13.00
-
West and Kirrane can gain Dream Deauville success
-
Secret Angel has each-way appeal
Art Power will go off pretty short for the Arc Prix Maurice de Gheest at 15:25.
Yet there is a major negative on his CV that makes me think 2/13.00 is too short.
Tim Easterby's six-year-old has won four races in the last three years - two Group 2s and 2 Group 3s, all of them at the Curragh.
Put another way, he has run in 18 races elsewhere in that time and lost the lot.
At the end of last year, he was favourite for races at Donny, Newcastle and Wolverhampton. The best he could do was a third, and that in a Listed race.
He was impressive back at the Curragh last time, drawing four lengths clear of Go Athletico, Moss Tucker and Ladies Church in the Group 2 Sapphire Stakes, but he has not won two in a row since the summer of 2020.
I can't deny he is in form, but I can't bring myself to tip him at his price.
Who will beat Art Power? Well, it's pretty open, and a case can be made for most of his rivals.
Fort Payne won a Group 3 at Longchamp in May, with his stablemate King Gold two lengths back in third and the favourite, Egot, fourth.
But when they met again at the end of June over the same course and distance, it was King Gold who came home first with Fort Payne, fifth, and Egot, sixth.
The form of the three Frenchies, then, is a bit tangled up, but so too is the form of the seven from England.
Going for Rohaan 10/111.00 is not as random as it seems given he was only beaten a length by Highfield Princess in it 12 months ago.
He then came an honourable third in the Betfair Sprint Cup at Haydock, and fourth in the Qipco Champions Sprint.
Rohaan has yet to get his act together this season but I'm giving him one last chance to prove he is no has-been.
Saint Lawrence 22/123.00 won the Wokingham at Royal Ascot on his first start for Archie Watson. That should entitle him to be half his overnight odds but he has a poor record on soft.
Karl Burke's Spycatcher 4/15.00 won the Prix de Ris-Orange by three lengths here last month. As one of the three Group winners last time out - Art Power and King Gold being the others - he is a must for any shortlist.
Andrew Black, who started Betfair 20-odd years ago, will fancy his home-bred Brad The Brief 22/123.00, as he is a Group winner on heavy in France. That was in 2020, but he did win a Group 2 last May at the Curragh.
Sandrine 15/28.50 has a Group win at Ascot on heavy as a two-year-old on her CV and won the Group 2 Lennox Stakes at Goodwood 12 months ago.
Like Art Power and Rohaan, she was in the last four home in the Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot in June.
It's one of those races where nothing stands out, and I'd keep stakes to an absolute minimum.
I reckon the best bet of the day is Live In The Dream 7/42.75 in the first race on the card - the Prix du Cercle at 12:58 over five furlongs.
In contrast to the Group 1 feature, Adam West's runner ticks every box. His four runs this year are his best to date.
They were all over the minimum trip, with his usual rider Sean Kirrane making all in a Pontefract handicap on soft before going down by half a length on soft in a Group 3 at Newmarket.
Live In The Dream's most recent race, in May, was the Betfred Temple Stakes, a Group 2 in which he was a close third behind Dramatised and Equilateral.
This is a Listed race, so two steps down in class. Kirrane keeping the ride is an important factor in making the four-year-old my bet of the day. I'd sooner that than use a French jockey who doesn't know his mount.
Batwan 6/17.00 was second to Spycatcher in the Group 3 Prix de Ris-Orange on soft here last month.
He ticks the same boxes as my nap, other than distance. He has not won over five for over three years.
Top weight Coeur De Pierre 7/24.50 was fifth in this race in 2020 and won it 12 months ago. He is the only recent winner of a Group race, having won a Group 3 at Chantilly on soft last October, but his form this year hasn't come within 10lb of his best.
I'd conclude that at seven we have seen the best of him.
Tudor Bem 9/110.00 gives 100 per cent every time and is best on soft. His strike rate of 10 wins from 66 starts is uninspiring, though, and he was half a length behind Forza Capitano 9/110.00 when they last met at Longchamp in May, and three-quarters of a length behind Zudu Spirit 9/110.00 in the Prix Hampton last month.
The Frankel colt Faleh 16/117.00 comes into the race on the back of a career-best victory in a handicap at Vichy. He would be the first three-year-old winner of the race and needs to improve again to make the first three.
Adam West also runs Violets Star in the Prix Moonlight Cloud at 13:33, a Listed race for three-year-olds over six furlongs.
She has had just one run at Thirsk, though, when second at 150/1 in a novices' event in June. Promising as that was, she is impossible to fancy against the likes of Secret Angel 17/29.50, a course and distance winner on soft as a two-year-old.
Clifford Lee's mount's form hasn't dipped this season either. She was third to Mammas Girl and Fairy Cross in a Guineas trial at Newmarket, then first home of her age group when fourth in the Group 3 Chartwell Fillies' Stakes at Lingfield.
She was outpaced on her return to six furlongs at York on good last time but the softer going should help her cause. She will need to break better than of late to gain her second win at Deauville but she should be placed.
Jane Chapple-Hyam's Mill Stream 3/14.00 has only raced on good and good to firm but deserves his place in the line-up given his good efforts in valuable heritage handicaps at York and Newmarket.
He is at the top of his game, best at six furlongs and is one of his rider Marco Ghiani's favourite mounts.
I can see Marco easing Mill Stream down if he doesn't like the going, but equally it would be no surprise to see him in the winner's enclosure come 13:40.
A French filly I like is Spirit Gal 17/29.50 whose owner transferred her from Willie Browne in Ireland to Andre Fabre after she ran way below her best in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies' Turf at Keeneland last autumn.
She has been campaigned over seven and eight furlongs by Fabre this year and could get her mojo back over six.
Deauville - 14:50 - No bet
The only British runner in the Prix Daphnis at 14:50 is Archie Watson's Brave Emperor, a rare ride at Deauville for Luke Morris.
He has a 3lb penalty for his Group 3 success in Germany in April, since when he has come third in Sweden and been hopelessly outclassed at Royal Ascot.
That latest run was his first over 10 furlongs, and he reverts to a mile here.
His current mark of 106 gives him an undeniable chance but Mr Moliere has been getting better with each race.
A mile specialist, he was second to Colombier at Longchamp in May and then had half a length in hand of Padishakh when winning the Tattersalls Prix de Saint-Patrick at Chantilly, a Listed event.
With Cawdor coming third to the classy pair Breizh Sky and Good Guess in the Group 3 Prix Paul de Moussac, and more than half the field rated within 5lb of each other it looks too close to call and is best watched.