The Britannia and the King George V Stakes: How to tackle Thursday's big Royal Ascot handicaps

Thursday will be the longest day of the year. That conjures up visions of druids welcoming the sun at Stonehenge and on Glastonbury Tor, and of barbeques that go on even after the sun has finally called it a day.

Unfortunately, by all accounts, the Weather Gods seem intent on raining on the parade, with heavy downpours and even thunder storms forecast for much of southern Britain.

A marked change of going from a drying "good" at the beginning of the meeting could throw a spanner in quite a few works. It would be understandable if punters chose to be cautious.

It is not as if they have things easy on day three of the Royal meeting, either. In among some reasonably "solvable" races are two frighteningly difficult handicaps, the Britannia Stakes (due off at 16:25 BST) and the King George V Stakes (due off at 17:35 BST).

It would appear that I am on "frighteningly difficult handicap" duty this week.

The Britannia Stakes for three-year-olds over a mile is likely to have a full complement of 30 runners (three reserves have also been declared). As mentioned in my Royal Hunt Cup blog, maximum fields on the straight course at Ascot since it was relaid then reopened in 2006 have shown a bias towards horses drawn high (once allowance has been made for a change in stalls numbering in March 2011).

Additionally, while the effect is nowhere near as strong as with the draw, the evidence is that horses with high marks have underperformed in this particular race in recent years. That is taking all such horses and gauging how well they won or badly they lost and not just cherry-picking the winners.

Crunching the numbers led me to siding with two of the contenders, Lord ofthe Shadows (drawn 26, which should become 25 after defections) and Frog Hollow (drawn 31, which should become 29).

Lord ofthe Shadows is well-in at his best and has come down the handicap despite signs of a return to form. He is due to be ridden by the very capable apprentice Sean Levey. Frog Hollow looks just about as well-handicapped as any on his form on soft going and has blinkers on for the first time.

You should get a decent price on them both.

You should also get a decent price about my fancy in the King George V Stakes, run over a mile and a half, despite there being "only" 19 runners (plus three reserves).

Fennell Bay can hardly be said to have sneaked under the radar, given that he is penalised for a win last time and will be having his twelfth start. But there is good reason to think he may still have untapped potential.

This will be his first run at a mile and a half, despite coming from quite a stoutly-bred family. His half-sister Rising Cross was second in the Oaks and won the staying Park Hill Stakes. Trainer Mark Johnston is a past master at getting improvement out of tough sorts by stepping them up in distance in this manner.

Fennell Bay also has a good "profile", if you like that sort of thing, as, despite his successes, he still figures off a lowish mark and he gets to run from a high draw.

That second piece of information may seem counter-intuitive, given the distance of the race and that low numbers are nearest the inside rail, but the evidence in favour of horses drawn high over those drawn low is surprisingly strong in this race.

There is a run of nearly four furlongs (much of it downhill) to the first turn and horses on the inner may well get crowded as those from further out come across.

This is not a race to get heavily involved in, but Fennell Bay, the mount of Joe Fanning, looks like giving punters a good run for their money.

Recommendations
1 pt win Lord ofthe Shadows and Frog Hollow (both in Britannia Stakes), 1 pt win Fennell Bay (King George V Stakes), all at Royal Ascot on Thursday.
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