Sectional Debrief: Kempton, Wednesday December 4

After the fireworks of Monday's Kempton meeting, at which a potential Group horse was unearthed, it was business as usual on Wednesday. On a surface which was a bit quicker than normal (about 8 lb faster than two days previously), there were no real standout efforts on the clock.
 

Only the final race, won by New Rich, resulted in an overall time close to what might be expected of the horses' abilities, though Hedge End ran sectionals earlier on that saw her overall time upgraded to a figure in line with her form. The latter race is an interesting one: while the clear leader Aspirant went too quickly, it was not by much and the principals still did well to make as much late ground as they did. Last-to-first Hedge End was not flattered: if anything, the opposite.
 
Most of the other races were steadily- or slowly-run. Ride of the night, on which Sean Levey and Graham Lee both excelled with hat-tricks, was arguably that of Martin Harley aboard Halfsin, who turned in in front and had enough in reserve to post a 35.25s sectional. Presburg did quite well in fourth in Halfsin's race, but not enough to make the Sectional Debrief list.

Halfsin's time is poor, and so are those of Lady Crossmar and This Is Me in victory: some of the form on show may not stand up especially well.

The best contender for a horse "to oppose" may, however, be One Last Dream, who finished second to Ivor's Princess in the 7f handicap. Sectionals show that One Last Dream ran closest to par, and quite a bit more efficiently than the horses on either side of him, who came home quickly. 

With little else to excite, this seems a good opportunity to dispel a myth being bandied about on the internet. Contrary to what some have stated, Timeform does take the wind into account in all of its time analysis, including sectionals. 

Even with detailed readings from the Met Office and from course representatives to assist, there is, of course, a degree of estimation involved with such things, as the effect of wind can be very specific to a time and a place. Such estimation does not invalidate the entire exercise of time and sectional analysis, any more than does estimation of the precise state of the ground, of the abilities of the horses, or of a multitude of other uncertain factors involved. 

Horseracing analysis is not an exercise in grim determinism, whereby it is a simple question of establishing every relevant factor with pinpoint precision and knowing the results of races before they occur. It is an exercise in dealing with incomplete information in an uncertain environment and making reasonable estimates and assumptions. 

"Reasonable" estimates and assumptions are, in effect, USEFUL estimates and assumptions. No model can possibly be unerringly accurate - the laws of the Universe dictate that besides anything else - but it can have utility. That is what is being attempted with sectional analysis: it is left to the reader to decide whether that is being achieved. 

"To oppose":
One Last Dream  

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