2000 and 1000 Guineas: What the historical sectionals tell us to expect

Electronic sectional timing returns to the Rowley Mile course at Newmarket this coming weekend, thanks to the QIPCO-backed British Champion Series. The sectionals will be provided by TurfTrax, whose equipment triangulates the precise position of each horse several times a second, from which times and speeds are computed.

Recent blogs have attempted to set out some of the advantages and potential of sectional timing, but there is a danger that the information - splendid though it is - will suffer from a lack of context.

Fortunately, there is some "form" to go on where Newmarket is concerned, as TurfTrax provided timing there in the early years of this century.

My records from that period are incomplete, but they still include some of the Guineas from yesteryear, and a revisit may help readers to make sense of the information that will provided this time round.

It should be remembered that Frankel was estimated to have got to halfway in last year's 2000 Guineas in about 47.5 sec (overall time 97.30 sec, good to firm going and into a headwind). That, if true, is comfortably quicker than other Guineas for which we have accurate information, some of them run in circumstances more conducive to fast times.

Historical Guineas Sectionals

In each instance, the runners were slowing at the end of the race. That is to be expected for a number of reasons, not least because the final furlong at Newmarket is against the collar.

Few horses manage to break 12 sec for this final furlong, a notable exception being Haafhd, who zipped through the last two furlongs of a steadily-run Craven Stakes in 2002 in 10.91 sec and 11.87 sec.

Slowing is relative, of course. Strictly speaking, Hawk Wing was slowing at the end of the 2002 Guineas (final furlong in 12.07 sec and penultimate one in 11.31 sec), but he was gaining on all of his rivals and running fast compared to what could be expected.
Ten years on, it now seems academic, but was Hawk Wing unlucky not to win the 2000 Guineas? The sectionals suggest he was the best horse in the race by a length or two.

Horses run faster at shorter distances, of course, and sub-12-second final furlongs, or sub-11-second furlongs before that, are not so rare in sprints.

The speedball Repertory blasted through the second and third furlongs of a five-furlong handicap at the course in 2002 in 10.22 sec and 10.79 sec respectively, the kind of speed even Frankel might not lie up with.

The fastest final furlong I can find at the course was the 11.47 sec of Reel Buddy in winning a listed six-furlong race in 2002.

For those who like their times expressed as speeds, 10.22 sec is 44 mph, 11 sec is 40.9 mph and 12 sec is 37.5 mph.

Whether the runners will go that fast this coming weekend will depend on a number of factors, not least the speed of the surface.

What is clear, however, is that we will not have to guess about such matters in the way that had been the case recently. Long may it continue!

Post-race sectional analysis of the Newmarket Guineas meeting will appear on these pages shortly after the event.