Jamie Lynch's QEII Preview: A Planned Approach

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Dawn Approach can take the QEII.

"Dawn Approach is back 'on script' on Saturday, and, top performer that he is, he won't fluff his lines..."

Fail to plan and you plan to fail. There's a truth to that saying, but sometimes temptation gets in the way of a plan, especially in horseracing, as Jamie Lynch explains while examining the story so far for one of the headline acts on Champions Day...

Travis mumbles to himself in the mirror.

That was the only direction in the script, and it was all De Niro's improvisation that gave us one of, if not the most, iconic lines in film history: 'You talking to me?'

Similarly unscripted were Hannibal Lecter's sinister hiss and Chief Brody's 'You're gonna need a bigger boat,' while the unforgettable scene where Indiana Jones nonchalantly shoots the flashy swordsman only came about because Harrison Ford was too full of diarrhea on the day to film the intended extravagant swordfight.

It's a two-way street, though, as deviations from a script can equally have negative consequences, especially in sport, where plans go out the window all the more frequently than form-books. Only last weekend, in bush-league racing, namely F1, Mark Webber was visibly peeved by his two-stop strategy being changed to three mid-race, potentially costing him a brief starring role in the Vettel Show.

Decisions made for him rather than by him, Webber was and is effectively the racehorse, his expression of talent to some degree beholden to the management. Impromptu variations in a gameplan, such as Webber's rerouting, bring complications that test the best, for better or for worse, but invariably challenging, because more - sometimes much more - is being asked compared to the original, simpler script...

'It will only be his class and temperament that will enable him to get ten furlongs; I think the horse will probably achieve enough at a mile to keep everyone happy.'

Jim Bolger, quoted last winter, back then seemed a man with a plan for Dawn Approach. Who better to use as a paradigm than the horse for all ages, Frankel, whose trainer Sir Henry Cecil kept to his plan and kept his head when all around were losing theirs, clamouring for Frankel to, literally and figuratively, go the extra yard, at the risk of Frankel's destiny. The intuitive genius of Cecil was the reason Frankel lit up British Champions Day, not once but twice.  

As a three-year-old, Frankel contested the Guineas, the St James's Palace, the Sussex, then the QEII. On Saturday, Dawn Approach will complete the same set, but in a roundabout way, his extra stops perhaps unscheduled and certainly unsuccessful.

The turn that took us all by surprise, at least at the time, was the St James's Palace, unexpected because of what happened to Dawn Approach at Epsom, but I would argue (obviously not with Mr Bolger) that the Derby, rather than Royal Ascot, was actually the Plan 'B', in the context of the original script.
     
Giant's Causeway was known as the 'Iron Horse' with good reason, never out of the first two in nine consecutive Group 1s in his classic season, but even he didn't attempt two within twelve days as was insisted of Dawn Approach, in a different country again, in France, and he duly ran as if his plan was more of a rest.    

For me, the twice Dawn Approach has slipped up is the twice he's gone off-piste, but when following the F-Plan of the tried-and-trusted schedule for a three-year-old miler he's brought his A-Game every time, meeting Toronado every time, beating Toronado every time, bar the last time, though even then running to a Timeform rating of 132.

It wasn't until his final start, when running away with the Champion Stakes, that Dawn Approach's sire, New Approach, hit the heights of 132. The lesson there, if there is one, is that Jim Bolger is a past master at getting one to peak for a designated day, because New Approach himself hadn't nor wasn't an easy ride, but in the six-week break ahead of Newmarket (where the Champion Stakes was then) Bolger reprogrammed New Approach; leaner, meaner, different demeanour. Bolger's had ten weeks to work on a new Dawn, though the old Dawn will do.

Bar the Prix Jacques le Marios, when the local euros were prophetically piled onto Moonlight Cloud, Dawn Approach has never been bigger odds than 11/8 in any race all year, yet he's available at 2/1 for the QEII, and that's betting without Toronad-foe. Instead comes Toronad-quo, namely Olympic Glory, but the Marois was something of a hall of mirrors in making Olympic Glory look bigger than he is and Dawn Approach unflatteringly smaller.              

This year's Prix du Moulin was a hollow Group 1, Stephane Pasquier stealing it for Maxios through enterprise, but even so Olympic Glory was laboured, adding some weight to the belief that his Deauville performance wasn't so much monumental as ornamental, and I doubt it was in his script that he'd need a prompt, in the shape of headgear, for the QEII.

More of a danger to Dawn Approach than Olympic Glory is Soft Falling Rain, who's earnt his place with relentless progress as well as relentless galloping in winning a Group 2 with a Group 1 effort, but testing ground isn't part of his plan. The original plan for Top Notch Tonto was that he'd be running on Champions Day, in the seven-furlong 0-80 at Catterick, but here he is at the top table following a makeover by Brian Ellison that makes Gok Wan look like Brian Ellison. An honourable fifth, possibly fourth if it's wet enough, is the best Top Notch Tonto can hope for, but his transformation has been one of the stories of the season.

'To achieve great things, two things are needed,' said Leonard Bernstein: 'A plan, and not quite enough time.' Six months, the rough length of the Flat season, isn't quite enough time for a racehorse to achieve greatness through conventional campaigning, hence why Dawn Approach, in the best interest of the horse's legacy, was set the kingmaking challenges of Epsom and France, perhaps sacrificing the plan for the dream. But Dawn Approach is back 'on script' on Saturday, and, top performer that he is, he won't fluff his lines.

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