Jamie Lynch's Betfair Chase Preview: A different National Hunt flat race

It's by no means his defining quote as a football pundit, but it still tickles that Big Ron said 'Well, either side could win it, or it could be a draw'. No surprises for Ron. Not then, anyway. Part of the power of sport is its capacity to surprise, and a couple of surprising draws - or perhaps not so surprising in hindsight - are case histories for the central issue in Saturday's starry Betfair Chase. 

In the 2011 World Cup, England somehow managed to equal home-advantaged India's score of 338 in one of the best cricket matches of all time. And far, far away, in Greece, Dundee United grabbed an improbable 1-1 draw with AEK Athens in a 2010 Europa League qualifier. What links them is that an advantage was swung by an environmental change of circumstance.

Eden Gardens, the original venue for the cricket clash, wasn't ready in time, meaning the fixture was transferred to the fantastically-named M Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bangalore, where the more batting-friendly pitch played to England's then strength; while in Greece, with greater impact, the over-zealousness of some locals resulted in an unconditional ban on home supporters, thus turning the Greek Theatre into a Scottish sanctuary, a 35,000-seater stadium populated only by 500 Dundonians. In both instances, if not exactly false advertising, the rules of the game were revised, different from convention, and the outcome was influenced by the change in dynamic.

And so to the Betfair Chase, where the rules of the game are revised, different from a conventional Betfair Chase, and the outcome will be influenced by the change in dynamic. To whose benefit is the question? The short answer is Bobs Worth. Now for the long version. 

Think India rather than Greece for the reason behind the race modification. The fact the hurdles track isn't yet ready after drainage work has led to a game of racecourse Twister, where the divining spinner has paired up "hurdles" with "chase course" and "fences" with "Flat course", and the impact is significant as far as the Betfair Chase goes.

An acknowledgement has been made with an extra furlong added to the race's advertised distance, but the ramifications stretch far beyond that, stretch being the operative word, as running the Betfair Chase on the wider circumference of the Flat course, which is all the more galloping and testing in nature than the inner loop of the chase track, on rain-softened ground that is already sodden from being watered all summer, completely changes the race dynamics, and it's now all about one word: stamina. That and, for want of a better expression, 'being hard'. 

Bobs Worth has made his name and fame on being hard. What he lacks in apostrophes he makes up for in hardness, and we're not talking Danny Dyer hardness, we're talking McHardness, as in Richie McCaw hardness, or Lenny McLean hardness, or Tony McCoy hardness. Bobs McWorth. 

It's not only his hardness that is underrated. Rather like Kevin Costner was presented as the star of Robin Hood: Prince of Thieves, Bobs Worth's promotional poster has at the top, in big letters, 'UNBEATEN LEFT-HANDED'. But Morgan Freeman is 'unbeaten at Cheltenham and Newbury' and Alan Rickman is 'unbeaten beyond three miles'. Those are the real gems in the production, especially so in reference to this weekend's refurbished Betfair Chase at Haydock, which, on the outer track, will be much more a Cheltenham or Newbury in character than if the race was at its traditional inner-loop home. And then there's his stamina, all of which we probably haven't yet seen, but it has already got him a Hennessy and a Gold Cup. 

It was a soft-ground Gold Cup in which Silviniaco Conti was trading at just 9/4 on Betfair when falling three out, though the way Bobs Worth came home, powered by three-parts stamina and one-part hardness, suggests that 9/4 about Silviniaco Conti was optimistic in retrospect. 

Silviniaco Conti, stealthily if not criminally, stole an advantage into the home straight in last year's Betfair Chase, an ideal move in a small field on the inner track, but it's a case of same race, different circumstances this time - very different - and I'm not sure he wants a slog, likewise Cue Card, likewise Dynaste for that matter. Each has a touch of the Flat-track bully about them, but not on this Flat track. 

The suspicion is that Bobs Worth would stay extreme distances, the knowledge is that Tidal Bay does, remembering the three-and-three quarter mile Whitbread that marked the start of his new career as a trier. Sipping the same stuff that the wizard gave the lion in Oz has worked wonders for Tidal Bay, too, and, at around 2.89/5 on Betfair, he's a good bet for a place, likely to be just getting interested as the dubious stayers are coming up for air and certain to be played that way. 

While we've mentioned Silviniaco Conti and Tidal Bay, spare a thought for Ruby Walsh, for whom this weekend must be like Brad Pitt stumbling across an old episode of Friends while flicking through the channels. Angelina is a stunner, but he and Jen had some great times.

In centuries to come, when the Time Team boys unearth an ancient parchment with a list of big-race winners, the final time will be the only clue that something was afoot with the 2013 renewal of the Betfair Chase. In the present, we know exactly what's afoot, namely a completely different, stiffer test than the race norm, courtesy of the offbeat track, which puts the emphasis on stamina and hardness, the bywords for Bobs Worth. 

Recommendation:
Back Bobs Worth to win the Betfair Chase

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