Handicappers' Corner: When the going gets tough!

Twenty-eight of the thirty jumps meetings staged since New Year's Eve have been run "officially" on soft or heavy going, though "unraceable" would arguably have been a more accurate description for the conditions at several of these; the waterlogged scenes at Cheltenham on New Year's Day, for example, were apparently no worse than "soft"!

"Heavy" has been by far the most-used description during this period and was the going for all four jumps meeting last weekend, which resulted in plenty of head-scratchers for those trying to accurately allot ratings for the horses on show. In fairness, Timeform handicappers do get some help in this regard (the firm works out the pounds-per-length to use on a race result by using a formula which takes into account both the stopwatch and underfoot conditions) but the fact remains that very testing ground still tends to result in exaggerated finishing margins which can be hard to assess.

Saturday's Grade 1 Clarence House Chase at Ascot was a prime example of this. Third-placed Kauto Stone (c157?) ended up being beaten twenty-six lengths and running some 22 lb below his best recent Timeform rating, yet he shaped for much of the way as if back in form and almost certainly warrants being rated much closer in regards to runner-up Hidden Cyclone (c159) than the fifteen-length margin that was between them on the day.

In addition, the fourth- and fifth-placed horses, Days Hotel (c156) and Oiseau de Nuit (c156), ended up running well below their current Timeform figures (26 lb and 35 lb respectively), yet didn't shape so badly as that would suggest for 90% of the race and almost certainly remain in form, particularly if returned to more suitable company next time.

All of which makes it very difficult to get a concrete rating on impressive winner Sire de Grugy (c170+), hence the decision to retain the "+" symbol on his figure given that he could clearly be rated even higher if one took a literal view of the beatings he meted out to some of the names already mentioned. What isn't in doubt, however, is that Sire de Grugy is firmly established as a top-class chaser; he's now won eight of his eleven starts over fences and only the temporarily-sidelined Sprinter Sacre (c192p), plus possibly Cue Card (c180) if dropped in trip, are rated above him now in the two-mile division.

If anything, the Grade 2 Altcar Novices' Chase at Haydock on Saturday was an even more difficult race to assess, with Taquin de Seuil (c148p) running out a wide-margin winner from three rivals who clearly failed to give their running, most notably second favourite O'Faolains Boy (c135p), who was pulled up as if amiss shortly after halfway. It's probably worth noting that all three Rebecca Curtis-trained runners seen out this weekend performed well below expectations.

In truth, Taquin de Seuil has largely contested muddling races this season, including his two meetings with Oscar Whisky (c146p). The score is one-one between the pair, but he's continually shaped like an above-average novice and the percentage call is to award him a lofty rating despite misgivings about the reliability of some of his form. 

Another novice making a name for himself is Wychwoods Brook (c141p), who provided the highlight of a red letter day for his trainer Evan Williams, who saddled an across-the-card five-timer on Saturday, when springing a 16/1 surprise in the Peter Marsh Chase later on Haydock's card.
 
Despite those unflattering odds, plus the fact he and third-placed Merry King (c139) were racing from out of the weights, this was one result which actually made plenty of sense, with runner-up Vintage Star (c143) and fourth-placed Katenko (c157) almost certainly running up to their best in a tight finish. It was a second win from three completed starts over fences for the stoutly-bred Wychwoods Brook, who relished the step-up in trip and is probably open to further improvement granted a similar emphasis on stamina.

If Evan Williams grabbed the training honours on Saturday, then Noel Fehily was very much the jockey to follow thanks to his 88.5/1 treble at Ascot, the third leg of which came courtesy of Bury Parade (c155), who got back on track after blotting his copybook by refusing to race at Exeter last time. There was no sign of a repeat on Saturday and Bury Parade impressed with a strong-travelling display, eventually beating stable-companion Grandioso (c150) by five lengths, the pair pulling clear of the remainder in what was an admittedly weak race for the money.

Fehily had teamed up with Paul Nicholls thirty-five minutes earlier to land another sizeable pot, when Irish Saint (h153) ran out an eleven-length winner of the valuable limited handicap Holloways Hurdle from Imperial Leader (h128). It was a career-best effort from Irish Saint, though he'd often promised to reach such heights during his juvenile campaign and will take all the beating under a penalty if allowed to take his chance in next month's Betfair Hurdle at Newbury.

Another who holds a Betfair Hurdle entry is Melodic Rendezvous (h159p), who regained the winning thread after a rare flop in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle when landing the Champion Hurdle Trial at Haydock and can now boast an impressive strike rate of five wins from seven starts over hurdles. Whether a four-and-a-half length defeat of Ptit Zig (h158) represents Champion Hurdle form is another matter, however, as he was receiving 4 lb from the runner-up. That said, Melodic Rendezvous had more in hand than the bare result might suggest (which tends to be his style), whilst there was an excuse for that aforementioned flop at Newcastle (pulled muscle), so he's certainly well worth another try in top Grade 1 company. Let's just hope the ground isn't still heavy by then!