- Waterville a colt with improvement in him
- Further rain would be good news for The Revenant
- Recent rain also a plus for Emily
- Big ask in Champion Stakes against Baaeed
Big jump in class but we're hopeful
Trueshan is clearly the horse to beat in here if returning to his best but his run at Doncaster last time gives us all a bit of hope. And if he underperforms, then several of us will fancy their chances of taking advantage.
Waterville is a horse we had high hopes for earlier in the season but he has taken time to blossom and he has steadily progressed of late, and staying is clearly his game.
He obviously did very well to win the Irish Cesarewitch from a very unpromising position turning in and is a colt with improvement in him, but it is a big jump going from winning a handicap off a mark 99 to meeting proven Group 1 horses and a Classic winner in Eldar Eldarov. But we are hopeful of a good showing, nevertheless.
Quality and pace to feature down at 6f
She won her Group 1 over 7f this season, but we are looking forward to seeing what she can do back at 6f. She won the Cheveley Park over the trip at two, handles a bit of ease very well, and gets weight all round as the only 3yo filly in the race.
She will have to raise her game after a slightly below-par effort in the Foret last time but she has the quality and pace to be a player here in a big-field and wide-open race. I'm happy enough with her draw in 12.
Each-way claims at least with recent rain in her favour
Another very open and competitive race but we were obviously delighted with her fifth in the St Leger and she probably ran to a similar level of form at Longchamp last time.
Improvement is clearly needed here, but she has an each-way chance and hopefully an outside shot of a winning one too if she can progress again, with Wednesday night's rain in her favour. Her draw in 13 could have been better, I guess.
Softer the better for former race winner
We all know about this horse, and that is the softer the better for him. He certainly has the history in this race to make you confident of a bold show, finishing runner-up in 2019, winning it in 2020 and then running to form when fourth to Baaeed last year.
I also think he bumped into a very good colt when second at Longchamp last time, a race in which he would have gone closer with a smoother run - he had to come wide - so I quite like his chances, as much as you have to respect the claims of Inspiral and Modern Games.
Obviously, further rain increases his winning claims, as he does want it soft, although his fourth last year came on officially good to soft ground, I suppose.
Very big ask against Baaeed and Adayar
We may all be playing for third place with Baaeed and Adayar in the field - and Bay Bridge should not be forgotten, as he wasn't right last time, will love the ground and comes here capable of a big run - but we were delighted with Stone Age's fifth in the Irish Champion Stakes last time and hopefully he can come forward again here.
He is clearly a very good horse on his day, as he showed at Leopardstown earlier in the season too, but he is mixing it at the top table here and this is clearly a very big ask for him.
Will come good one day but recent rain a worry
One day it will all land right for him in a big handicap like this, but he is best on a sound surface and any more rain would be an obvious worry. He clearly didn't run his race when we last saw him at Pontefract in July, but he is fine now and his fourth in the Hunt Cup off a 1lb higher mark than this proves he can be competitive here if conditions improve for him. And the first-time visor will hopefully help, too.
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