Royal Ascot

Royal Ascot Day 4 Tips: A fantastic five bets for Tony Calvin on Friday

Betfair tipster Tony Calvin
Tony Calvin has five tips for Friday at Royal Ascot

"...the fact that he has run well over that distance on his last two starts, and been inched down 1lb in the weights, is another plus."

Sir Rumi at 25/1 each-way, five places, in 15:40 Royal Ascot

The penultimate day of Royal Ascot sees Tony Calvin strike five bets ranging from 10/1 to 25/1, so read our resident tipster's thoughts for what will hopefully be a fantastic Friday...

Rumi rates a very good bet with lots in his favour

Sir Rumi appeals as the best handicap bet of the Friday at 25/1 each-way, five places, in the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes at 15:40.

You can fully see why Just Fine and Trawlerman head the betting but no way should Sir Rumi be five or six times their price with his profile, especially as his wide draw of 17 is a proven positive in these 1m4f handicaps (Trawlerman is in three and Just Fine is in seven).

Sir Rumi ran well at this meeting last season when a staying-on fifth over 1m2f, a race in which the soft ground and trip didn't probably play to his strengths.

And I don't think 1m6f does either, as I think it is obvious he struggles to get home, so the fact that he has run well over that distance on his last two starts, and been inched down 1lb in the weights, is another plus.

The combination of 1m4f on fast ground here are probably his optimum conditions, and he looks very well handicapped on a strict interpretation of his comeback second in a conditions race over 1m4f at Doncaster, a race in which he split much higher-rated opposition in Raymond Tusk and Calling The Wind.

It's obviously a very deep handicap and, as ever, luck will play a major role but he rates a very good bet with seemingly everything in his favour.

He remains a bet at 16/1+.

Ehraz the one to beat in Commonwealth Cup but the price has long gone

I have no betting opinion in the opening Albany Stakes at 14:30, and the 20-runner Commonwealth Cup at 15:05 presented me with a dilemma.

I have been banging the drum for Ehraz ever since his unfortunate second at Newbury last time - we have had some fun with him and jockey Jim Crowley on the Weighed In podcasts ever since (well I have anyway) - but the problem is that he was 25s in the immediate aftermath of that race.

He has since tumbled down the betting - he is now 6s with the Sportsbook, who are paying four places, at the time of writing - which is understandable in one respect, but difficult to ignore in another as all the main opposition to him have stood their ground.

And, with 20 runners, this is one formidable, tight-knit puzzle to unravel.

I am going to sit this out at the current odds but Ehraz has better claims than most, as a course winner who should have won all day long at Newbury last time, and is a horse who I suspect could make a giant leap forward here.

But you have to be odds-driven - I read all these pro punter columns, but price is the one and only consideration when betting - and walk away when more often than not.

The same with any financial consideration.

Oppose Inspiral with these two

The Coronation Stakes at 16:20 offers a very good betting shape if Inspiral, currently just over a 2/1 chance on the exchange, holds her ground at the top of the market.

I can see her going for a fair old wander in the market, though.

Surely, the returning, unbeaten juvenile has to be taken on after a troubled preparation - I wouldn't back her at 7/2, personally - and my punting focus is on Discoveries and Sandrine.

I made the case for Discoveries on the Racing Only Bettor Royal Ascot Preview show last week - she was actually trading at 40/1+ on the exchange then to small stakes, which obviously made me wonder if she would rock up - and she is very interesting.

There are seemingly some very good vibes around her now, and that was apparently (you only tend to hear about the negatives post-race, unfortunately) not the case going into the 1000 Guineas, a race in which she was a touch underwhelming in seventh.

But she didn't run badly there, only being beaten five lengths into seventh (and maybe not best positioned up the middle, and on the pace) , and her Group 1-winning juvenile form puts her bang into the mix here.

I may be being schmoozed by the fact that Jessie Harrington won this race with her siblings Alpha Centauri and Alpine Star, but I am having a win-only nibble on her at 11.010/1 or bigger on the exchange.

Sandrine is the other filly I have been gnawing away at ante-post for this race, and I am happy to play her at 18.017/1 and greater on the exchange, too. I toyed with playing 14s each way, four places, too.

She won the Albany on heavy ground here last season but her best form has come on quicker ground, notably her Cheveley Park third to Tenebrism and her fifth in the Guineas on her return.

And you have to mark up the latter run, as she was isolated in the middle of the track, which I don't think was ideal at all.

Maybe she will fare best at 7f but if ever she is going to excel at a mile, it will be on fast ground around a bend here, on a track where she has won at.

Take a chance on a lively outsider in Sandringham

I don't have anything worthwhile, tipping-wise, to offer in the King Edward VII Stakes at 17:35 - it wouldn't surprise me if Savvy Victory, who shaped very well last time, massively outran his odds but I struggle to have him over 1m4f, even if the ground will help and he is bred to stay it (mind you, I am odds-on to have a few quid on him I imagine) - so that leaves me with two ridiculously hard handicaps to sort out.

I was tempted by Mashaaer in the Sandringham at 17:00 at a huge price.

And I decided to go with her.

She finished second here on quick ground at two and she appeared to excel when second to With The Moonlight (with Crenelle, one of the market leaders in behind) in the Pretty Polly over 1m2f two starts ago.

That makes her fairly treated here.

However, I don't know what happened afterwards as the trainer was making noises about going the French Oaks, only to rock up in a Bath maiden 19 days later - that is some re-evaluation - in which she was chinned at 4/9.

Time may tell that wasn't as bad as it seems - Thursday may do, actually - as the winner, Schmilsson, made all, is a very well-bred individual and has an outside chance in the King George V Stakes today.

Mashaaer's pedigree is more speed than stamina, so I like the angle of her stepping down to 1m.

There are obvious negatives about her, and the stable's record with first-time cheekpieces (which she wears here) isn't bet-inducing - they are 4 from 34 - but I do think she is overpriced, so I will have a minimum-stakes bet on her on the exchange at 26.025/1 or bigger.

She is 25/1 with the Sportsbook if you want to get filled straight away, and back her each-way, six places.

I suspect you will get a lot more bang for your buck on Friday afternoon, so you may be better off waiting, but that is my base, guide price, as it stands.

Heredia may be a class apart, but we shall see.

Bond to the rescue in Friday finale

I was going to sit out the 5f handicap at 18:10 as sprint handicaps are not profitable escapades for me, but I have to admit Bond Chairman nearly made the column.

He may still do.

Read on.

He is as big as 33s in the marketplace - the Sportsbook are right to duck him at 20s, I feel - and you can see why as he is making his seasonal reappearance here and comes from a stable with a 4% strike rate.

But he finished fourth in the Windsor Castle on fast ground here last season, a mark of 93 is not insufferable on his handicap debut, and he has been gelded since we last saw him.

The fact that he won on his debut is probably neither here nor there, but maybe Bryan Smart can roll back the years and net his fourth Royal Ascot winner.

A look at Smart's recent form isn't as bad as the bare fact would suggest and, after much deliberation, I have decided to throw a dart at him at 26.025/1 or bigger.

Again you may get a fair bit bigger than 25s given his profile, but this is a fair class drop for him off a decent mark.

Good luck, all.

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