Royal Ascot

Royal Ascot Day 4 Lay Tips: Lysander's odds make no sense at all

Royal Ascot
The stands' rail has been the place to be the first part of the week

''Queen Olly's position in the betting owes a lot to her good draw but Meditate and Mawj look a good deal classier. At around 3.4 for a place, it is worth taking the risk that Rossa Ryan's mount won't make the first three.''

Patrick Weaver has four more lay bets for the fourth day of Royal Ascot...

William Haggas runners have continued to attract support this week - even when it is undeserved. It is as if there is a Haggas factor, along the lines of the Frankie factor after he went through the card at Ascot 26 years ago.

I can't get my head around his Lysander being as short as 4.84/1 for the King Edward VII Stakes at 17:35.

An impressive winner at Newcastle before going down by a length at Goodwood, he is currently rated 10lb behind the Derby fifth Changingoftheguard and is 2lb adrift of Dark Moon Rising, fourth in the Dante on his latest start.

And they are not the only two on our side if we lay Lysander win and place.

Ottoman Fleet has been working well on the Newmarket gallops since overcoming a slow start to win a 10-furlong Listed from the favourite Zain Sarinda and Savvy Victory.

Both should stay the extra quarter-mile comfortably, but of course you don't know until after the race.

Zain Sarinda had previously finished alongside Grand Alliance when the pair were second and third in a Derby trial at Epsom in April, so you could conclude that Lysander should be no longer odds than that trio. As it is, he is a quarter the price of Grand Alliance.

I'll be laying Tom Marquand's mount win and place in the hope that we get a truly-run race.

Heredia may not be ahead of the handicapper

The Richard Hannon-trained filly Heredia is plenty short enough at 6.05/1 having been backed all week to win the Sandringham Stakes at 17:00. There are 29 runners, and she has yet to race over a mile.

A winner of all her three starts, she comes on from York where she beat Espressoo a head. The runner-up meets the winner on 2lb better terms, yet is 26.025/1. In theory there should not be anything between them, yet they are 20 points apart.

If I was backing a seven-furlong winner stepping up to a mile I would sooner back Golden Spice 27.026/1. She is 2-2 on turf, having won handicaps at Newmarket and Leicester last month.

Fresh Hope, Crenelle, Persist, Cigamia, Discretion, and Lullaby are all winners over a mile. The first-named is worth a close look as Hayley Turner and Charlie Fellowes have won two of the last three runnings of this handicap.

Given the strength of the opposition, Heredia isn't entitled to be as short as she is and looks a place lay 2.47/5.

Queen needs to find another gear to win

Half the runners in the Albany Stakes at 14:30 have yet to taste defeat.

That's nine out of 18 with the market headed by Meditate, Mawj and Queen Olly. The next five five in the betting are also unbeaten: Fully Wet, Sydneyarms Chelsea, Cathy Come Home, Powerdress and Lady Bullet.

The two that did not look Royal Ascot material on their debuts are Queen Olly 10.09/1 and Sydneyarms Chelsea 15.014/1.

There was nothing wrong with their maiden successes. It is just that they didn't look as if they can trouble the likes of Meditate 3.711/4, a Group 3 winner at Naas, or Mawj 4.216/5, who beat subsequent winner Believing 26.025/1 four lengths at Newmarket.

Queen Olly's position in the betting owes a lot to her good draw but Meditate and Mawj look a good deal classier. At around 3.412/5 for a place, it is worth taking the risk that Rossa Ryan's mount won't make the first three.

Lay Ruthin in running

In the closing sprint, the Palace Of Holyroodhouse Handicap at 18:10, I suggest laying Ruthin win and place in-running.

I do this kind of lay regularly when the favourite I am opposing is a front runner.

Ruthin is around 8.415/2 and a risky play at those odds. She has tried to make all the running in her three races, though, and there is no reason to suppose there will be a change of tactics given her early speed.

She has twice led from start to finish at Keeneland, but at Royal Ascot last year, when favourite for the Windsor Castle, she was headed inside the final furlong and finished seventh.

Nothing has gone right for her rider Irad Ortiz Jnr this week and he may find his mount swallowed up, just as Frankie Dettori did 12 months ago.

She could go odds-on in the second half of this sprint but I will be looking to lay her at 3.02/1 and at 1.68/13 for a place, in case she doesn't get as low as those numbers.

Timeform's 1-2-3 is Latin Lover, Love Me Like A Rock and Korker and they are not far wrong when it comes to valuable sprint handicaps.

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