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Kevin Blake's verdict for Saturday's big race at Newmarket
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July Cup looks wide-open and could throw up surprise winner
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O'Brien outsider is the one to back at 40/141.00
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The Al Basti Equiworld Dubai July Cup (16:35) is well established as one of the premier Group 1 sprints of the British Flat season.
It should be said from the outset that the current crop of top-level sprinters in Europe do not look to be a particularly strong bunch, but that makes for wide-open contests at the highest level and encourages the connections of some non-typical contenders to throw them into the mix to see if they can compete.
That is very much the case with this year's renewal of the race and it makes for a fascinating puzzle to decipher.
July Cup is sharper test of speed than Royal Ascot
Now, I say it every year when previewing this race, but it is worth repeating. Such is the positioning of this race in the calendar, it always features a lot of horses that have competed at Royal Ascot. When weighing up the likelihood of Ascot form being replicated on the July Course at Newmarket, it should always be considered just how different a test of speed each track represents.
This is summarised by the standard time for six furlongs at Ascot being 1:12.5 compared to the standard time of 1:10.2 for the six furlongs on the July Course. The 2.3 seconds over six furlongs equates to approximately 16 lengths, which converts to 48lb in terms of ratings at the trip. In short, the July Cup represents a substantially sharper test of speed than the Commonwealth Cup or the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot, so that should be very much considered when assessing whether form from those two races is likely to be bettered, replicated or not replicated this Saturday.
Tough ask for Notable Speech
This is certainly a factor worth considering when weighing up the prospects of Notable Speech proving effective in his first try at sprinting. The four-year-old has only ever run over a mile in his career, but he has always been a pacey miler, exhibiting particularly fast stride frequencies for a miler and having put down some extremely fast closing sectionals in his career.
He is most definitely worth a try at six furlongs at the highest level and I wouldn't be at all surprised if he proves fully effective over the trip in the fullness of time, but his connections have set him a particularly tough task by picking the July Cup for his first attempt at the trip given how much emphasis this course and distance places on speed. He might well get away with it, but I find it easy to pass over him at his current price and will watch with interest.
In terms of the pace picture of the race, Night Raider (1) looks to be the best quality pace in the race and is the only out-and-out front runner on show. Spy Chief (14) is less experienced, but did run well when making the running in the Jersey Stakes last time. Whether he has enough speed to make the running in this sharper test remains to be seen. Inisherin (12) usually races prominently (including in this race last year) and can be expected to be prominent in first-time cheekpieces.
Take a swing at O'Brien outsider at big price
To me, this has the look of a July Cup to have a swing at one at a big price, so that is what I'm going to do. The Aidan O'Brien-trained Ides Of March is a horse I've been fond of for a while and indeed, he was my selection in the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot off the back of two likeable runs in trials for the race. He proved very disappointing at Royal Ascot, but it was an odd race in which plenty of fancied runners ran well below form.
While it can be dangerous to file a run into the "too bad to be true" category without a viable reason for doing so, it can be justified when the price on their next run is so big that is compensates for that lack of explanation. That is very much the case with Ides Of March who is currently one of the outsiders of the entire field. Given that his form is closely matched with Whistlejacket who is amongst the market leaders, it really doesn't take that much of a leap of faith to see the case for Ides Of March being overpriced.
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