Saturday Horse Racing Tips: Katie Midwinter's best bets from 9/4 to 16/1

Katie Midwinter has six tips from Ayr, Newbury, the Curragh, Nottingham and Brighton

Horse Racing tipster Katie Midwinter has six selections to consider at Ayr, Newbury, the Curragh, Nottingham and Brighton on the Betfair Sportsbook this Saturday...

  • Katie Midwinter has six selections across the cards on Saturday

  • Spanish Harlem can finally land a big pot in the Scottish National

  • Richard Hannon-trained runner is bet of the day at Brighton


Timeform Superboost

The all-conquering Willie Mullins sends over a plethora of raiders to Ayr today as he bids to retain his Trainers Championship crown, including a much fancied runner in the Scottish Champion Hurdle at 14:15.

Ethical Diamond is the runner in question and he's finished first and fourth in his last two starts, and today you can back him at the super-boosted price of 1/12.00 (from 1/21.50) to finish in the top four again. To take advantage, just click on the odds in the below bet banner to go directly to the pre-loaded betslip.

*Please Note:  This superboost has been provided by the Betfair Sportsbook and not by any of our tipsters or writers.


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13:43 Ayr - Back Theformismighty E/W @ 14/115.00

Dan Skelton-trained Theformismighty steps up in trip to three miles for the first time under Rules on only his sixth start over fences.

The unexposed point winner has shown glimpses of form this term including when beating Kaituna River convincingly by ten-lengths at Southwell in December when equipped with first-time cheekpieces, and when narrowly beaten by New Order at Wetherby in February.

Whilst he may have struggled with consistency during his novice chasing campaign, the eight-year-old has the potential to show further improvement on his previous efforts and he may not have reached the peak of his ability yet on a rating of 128. 

The step up in distance could allow Theformismighty to thrive as he has been seen staying on strongly over shorter trips. His dam Mimi Equal is out of Grade Two winner Maid Equal, who proved her stamina capabilities over an extended 3m2f and produced Total Assests, a winner over four miles.

Considering he is yet to be fully exposed in handicaps, is still lightly raced and is untried over this distance for the yard, Theformismighty is an intriguing contender who appears to represent value at a price of 14/115.00 under Harry Skelton.


14:00 Newbury - Back Duty First E/W @ 14/115.00

In this competitive Group Three contest, Archie Watson-trained Duty First makes each-way appeal at generous odds of 14/115.00 under Hollie Doyle.

The daughter of Showcasing, who fetched 370,000gns at Tatts October Book 1 as a yearling, is out of Dream Dana, a 6f winning half-sister to Listed winner Yaa Wayl and Lidanski, dam of Prix de l'Abbaye winner Wizz Kid and Listed winning Mustaheel. There's plenty of class in her pedigree and in four starts as a juvenile she shaped with plenty of potential.

On debut at Newmarket in July, Duty First finished a respectable fourth behind hugely exciting Classic contender Desert Flower before being well supported into 10/111.91 favourite on her following outing, beating the field convincingly to shed her maiden tag. 

Upped into Group Three company on her subsequent start, Duty First put in a bold effort to finish second to Anshoda, who had previous form behind Celestial Orbit in Listed company when ahead of Flaming Stone, in the Prestige Fillies' Stakes at Goodwood. Merrily was in third that day and went on to claim Group Three success in the Oh So Sharp Stakes at Newmarket later in the season, achieving a rating of 107 in the process.

Considering that form has been significantly franked, and it was a race run in softer conditions in which an emphasis on speed was less prominent, Duty First may be overlooked in the current mark at double-figure odds. She has displayed plenty of speed previously in an Ayr novice event, and this quicker surface should suit.

On her final start as a juvenile, Duty First again performed with some credit when third in the Group Two Rockfel Stakes, but was less impressive than in her previous couple of outings in softer conditions once again. She showed greenness and her inexperience at times during that race, too, but should have matured plenty over the winter and has the scope to progress beyond a rating of 96.


15:25 Curragh - Back One Look @ 4/15.00

Gleneagles filly One Look burst onto the scene with a hugely impressive six-length victory in the valuable Goffs Million at the Curragh on debut as a juvenile before backing up that effort with a Cork success on reappearance last term as well as claiming Listed honours at Killarney.

She was also able to finish second to now 114-rated Wingspan, who was subsequently second to Kalpana at Group One level, in the Listed Hurry Harriet Stakes at Gowran Park, before also placing second at Group Three level when behind Je Zous at the same venue.

The exciting Paddy Twomey-trained filly has shown to possess the ability required to be competitive in this sphere and there could be more to come from her. She has won well on her first start of the season twice in the past, which bodes well for her chances on reappearance here, and the yard have started this campaign in great order, currently performing at a 38 percent strike-rate. 

Although this is a competitive Group Three contest, One Look appears to hold leading claims under Billy Lee and could prove tough to beat.


15:35 Ayr - Back Spanish Harlem E/W @ 12/113.00

Imposing gelding Spanish Harlem has threatened to land a big prize for his trainer Willie Mullins and conditions could be right for him to do so here.

The €360,000 purchase finished third to Inothewayurthinkin on debut for Closutton at Gowran Park, sent off as 11/82.38 favourite when behind the future Gold Cup winning gelding. He was then second to both Three Card Brag and Riaan, respectively, but he shaped as though chasing would be much more suitable and he was sent over fences as a five-year-old at the beginning of last season.

In eight starts over the larger obstacles, the son of Spanish Moon is yet to claim success, however, things haven't quite fallen right for him and he has shaped with potential. The seven-year-old finished a respectable sixth behind stablemate Macdermott in this contest last year from a 4lb higher mark, and achieved fourth-place in a competitive Listed handicap at Punchestown when last seen from a mark of 136 which is unchanged.

This sounder surface should see him to better effect and the return to a marathon trip is likely to suit. He lacks a change of gear and a turn of foot, but he is a strong galloper who is able to maintain his run late on. Whilst this often leaves him vulnerable to a quicker horse, it could work in his favour late on should others begin to tire over extreme distances.

This is only his second season as a chaser and he could be capable of showing further improvement. With an extra year of experience in his favour this time around, Spanish Harlem can improve on last year's creditable effort from a lower mark at odds of 12/113.00.


16:40 Nottingham - Back Mr Cool @ 9/43.25

Charlie Johnston-trained Mr Cool is attempting to break his maiden at the twelfth time of asking in this 6f trip under Billy Loughnane.

From a mark of 72, he could finally achieve a first career success now returning to handicap company having been narrowly beaten in maiden when last seen. Should he be able to take a step forward from his first run following a gelding operation and a 122-day break, the son of Kodiac should be able to pose a threat over this 6f trip.

Last term, Mr Cool was highly tried and put in a number of promising efforts. He was only narrowly beaten by now 85-rated Cyclonite on handicap debut at Newcastle, before finishing a creditable second to Force And Valour, since upped into Group Three level in Meydan and recently placed third in a 7f handicap behind 97-rated No Retreat, at Thirsk.

Mr Cool also finished third to subsequent Listed winner Candy, now rated 99, when upped in class at Ayr last September, when ahead of promising 82-rated Our Mighty Mo, and there is enough substance to some of his form to suggest he should be able to land his first win soon.

This could be a nice opportunity for Mr Cool to enter the winners' enclosure having had the benefit of a recent run, and a price of 9/43.25 makes appeal.


17:30 Brighton - Back Lexington Knight @ 7/18.00

Course-and-distance winner Lexington Knight returns to the scene of his previous success from a 5lb lower mark from a rating of 72, with Joe Leavy claiming 3lb in the saddle as opposed to the 5lb claimed when victorious here last summer.

The Richard Hannon-trained seven-year-old makes appeal at the weights and should be able to improve on his recent efforts on his return to the Turf.

The son of Night Of Thunder has put in a number of promising efforts on the all-weather over the winter months, and was able to finish a four-length fifth at odds of 25/126.00 from a mark of 82 in a competitive Racing League contest in August. Considering he has been able to pose a threat from a higher mark in the past, he should be ready to strike from his current rating, appearing well-handicapped.

A strong pace to aim at over this intermediate trip would set the race up perfectly for Lexington Knight, however, he's also able to make his own running if required and use his stamina to great effect late on.

With plenty in his favour here, Lexington Knight makes the most appeal at a price of 7/18.00.


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Recommended bets

Back Theformismighty E/W in 13:43 Ayr @ 14/115.00

Back Duty First E/W in 14:00 Newbury @ 14/115.00

Back One Look in 15:25 Curragh @ 4/15.00

Back Spanish Harlem E/W in 15:35 Ayr @ 12/113.00

Back Mr Cool in 16:40 Nottingham @ 9/43.25

Back Lexington Knight in 17:30 Brighton @ 7/18.00

Katie Midwinter

Katie Midwinter is a horse racing enthusiast and regular tipster on betting.betfair.com

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