Horse Racing Tips: Katie Midwinter's best bets on Thursday including 40/1 Chester May Festival fancy

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Bet of the day - Chester, 13:30 - Back Ruby's Profit E/W @ 7/18.00

Four-year-old filly Ruby's Profit caught the eye when beaten only a length at Bath recently, and should be capable of putting in another bold bid from the same mark of 87. She's only 3lb higher than when beaten a length by Redorange at this meeting last year, and is 6lb lower than when third in the the three-year-old Dash at Epsom.

Last season, the daughter of Profitable was also able to be competitive at Goodwood, and was far from disgraced behind Adrestia at Royal Ascot. She has shown consistency generally and is on a workable mark from which she can put in a bold bid here, with previous course form in her favour.

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Chester, 13:30 - Back Vintage Clarets E/W @ 40/141.00

Richard and Peter Fahey-trained Vintage Clarets could represent value at a big price considering he's on a workable mark of 89 under 5lb claiming Ethan Tindall, and has course-and-distance form in his favour. He hasn't been seen to best effect in his latest runs but proved he still retains ability with a number of promising outings last season, and is currently 5lb lower than his last winning mark. 

The experienced performer is 7lb lower rated than when narrowly denied by Azure Angel in a Southwell handicap in September, and shouldn't be discounted despite being one of the outsiders of the field, on a workable mark having run well at the course in the past.

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Dee Stakes - Chester, 14:35 - Back Shayem E/W @ 12/113.00

Whilst the Listed Dee Stakes is a competitive race and Aidan O'Brien-trained Constitution River is likely to be tough to beat, one of Karl Burke's pair of representatives Shayem may be overlooked in the market and could be one to note each-way.

The King Of Change colt shaped with promise as a juvenile last term, winning on debut at Haydock before finishing third to subsequent dominant 2,000 Guineas winner Bow Echo and Publish, when ahead of four promising rivals including, three of whom are rated over 100, in the Ascendant Stakes.

Shayem won both of his final two starts last year, including when beating Rochfortbridge, who has previously inflicted defeat upon Thesecretadversary, in Listed company at Pontefract. He was tried on the dirt in Riyadh over the winter, failing to make an impression, and wasn't at his best on his Turf return when last seen, but it's too early to give up on the colt and he may have taken a step forward from his recent return to action.

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Ormonde Stakes - Chester, 15:05 - Back Real Dream E/W @ 40/141.00

Seven-year-old gelding Real Dream is a big price considering some of the form he has shown in recent seasons. He may represent value at the odds for Ian Williams and shouldn't be discounted, holding each-way claims if turning up at his best.

The son of Lope De Vega was only narrowly denied in a Riyadh Group Two in his penultimate start, only three-quarters-of-a-length behind Sons And Lovers when finishing well. He was fifth to subsequent Breeders' Cup winner Ethical Diamond in the Ebor last season when outrunning odds of 25/126.00, having been narrowly denied in Listed company earlier in the term, too. Whilst he wasn't seen to best effect on his British return at Kempton in March, Real Dream is capable of better and is no stranger to outrunning his odds.

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Chester, 15:40 - Back Moonfall E/W @ 6/17.00

Starman gelding Moonfall has a wide draw to contend with but is an intriguing contender for George Boughey under Ryan Moore on his return to action this season. This is his first run following a gelding operation on handicap debut, and he could be well treated from his opening mark of 90.

Moonfall shaped with promise in novice company last term, finishing second to now 105-rated Military Code, twice placed in Listed company since, before chasing home now 96-rated Rising Power and 90-rated Sovereign Spell at Newmarket. He then beat now 93-rated New Monarch, a promising colt who has enhanced the form, in a Newbury contest, getting off the mark at the third time of asking to win by two-lengths.

Unable to make a successful step up into Grade Two company, he could be better suited by this challenge now in handicap company and warrants consideration. If able to get off to a good start from the stalls, and if ready to go after an absence, Moonfall could pose a threat, unexposed and capable of showing further improvement.

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Chester, 15:40 - Back I'm Just Ken E/W @ 14/115.00

I'm Just Ken is another runner in the race who faces a stiff task from the stalls, but he could also be well treated from a mark of 78 on handicap debut for Hugo Palmer, a trainer to note on the Roodee.

The son of Havana Grey has shaped with potential in three starts to date, learning with experience and putting in creditable efforts behind New Monarch and Langstone, in respective novice contests. He has race fitness on his side and is unexposed coming into the race, likely to have learnt plenty in his previous runs which could allow him to fare better in handicap company.

The £78,000 purchase has already caught the eye against some promising rivals, and could have plenty of further progression to come in only his fourth start. He could prove better than his opening mark suggests and shouldn't be discounted if able to break well under Cam Hardie.

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Redcar, 17:50 - Back Run This Way E/W @ 7/18.00

Equipped with first-time blinkers, course-and-distance winner Run This Way holds solid claims in familiar surroundings having had the benefit of a recent run at Thirsk in her favour. She's now 18lb lower rated than her last winning mark but has shown she still retains ability in some of her recent runs, including last autumn when beaten only a length-and-three-quarters from a mark of 54. 

Currently rated 48, the Paul Midgley-trained mare, who makes her 51st start, is on a lenient mark and has course form in her favour as she seeks a seventh career win. The addition of headgear could spark improvement and she may be worth keeping onside under David Nolan.

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Wexford, 18:08 - Back Cappucino E/W @ 12/113.00

Likeable gelding Cappucino is still bidding to get off the mark over the larger obstacles for Liz Doyle, but came close in novice company at Tramore in his penultimate start and may be worth keeping the faith in following a pulled up effort at Thurles.

He should be reasonably treated from a mark of 112 considering his hurdling form and the promising start he has made to chasing, putting in a good account of himself at Punchestown in November, too, and can bounce back from his latest disappointing run when sent off at odds of 9/25.50.

Cappucino could reward the faith under regular rider Sean Flanagan as he seeks a third career win and is a horse to note.

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Southwell, 19:30 - Back The Cutest E/W @ 33/134.00

Although she remains a 12-race maiden, No Nay Never mare The Cutest has caught the eye in a few of her races and the step up to 7f could allow her to fare better. Her dam, Morpho Blue, a daughter of Mastercraftsman, won over a mile and the extra distance may suit as things may have been happening too quickly for her over the sprinting trips.

When last seen, the Derek Shaw-trained contender was far from disgraced at odds of 80/181.00 behind Von Krolock at Wolverhampton. From a low mark, she could be able to make the frame and it may be worth keeping the faith in her.

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Now read Sam Turner's Chester tips here

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