Horse Racing Tips: Katie Midwinter's best bets on Monday includes 16/1 Ayr fancy

• Katie Midwinter has four selections on Monday

• Thunderstorm Katie could finally strike in Ayr handicap

• Maiden hurdler has enough class to prevail at Cartmel

Ayr, 14:30 - Back Thunderstorm Katie E/W @ 16/117.00

Muhaarar filly Thunderstorm Katie has proven frustrating to follow since joining Jim Goldie, still a 12-race maiden, but has shaped with promise on occasion and recently underwent wind surgery which could allow her to show improvement.

In her first run for her current yard having moved stables from Brian Toomey's, Thunderstorm Katie was again making her first appearance following a wind operation and was able to finish an eye-catching fourth in a Newcastle handicap, beaten only two-and-a-quarter-lengths when sent off at odds of 28/129.00 from a mark of 48. She wasn't beaten far in her following run at Musselburgh, but couldn't improve in two following runs on the all-weather before a 134-day break.

This term, she has caught the eye again in defeat, running on strongly in the closing stages once the race has been lost. She is on a low mark of 44 now, dropped 2lb from her previous runs this season, and has her regular rider, 3lb claimer Amie Waugh, in the saddle once again as she seeks a first career success.

The yard is currently in form and this could be the chance for Thunderstorm Katie to return to form, too, if she can put in a competitive effort at odds of 16/117.00.

Cartmel, 15:12 - Back At Vimeiro E/W @ 15/28.50

Four-year-old gelding At Vimeiro once fetched 650,000gns as a Tatts Book 1 yearling before embarking on a racing career with Jane Chapple-Hyam.

The son of Sea The Stars failed to make an impression during his debut campaign as a juvenile, struggling to compete in maiden and novice events as well as when upped in class in the Royal Lodge Stakes, and he was subsequently upped in trip the following term, able to fare better on occasion but failing to live up to his price tag.

An 11-race maiden, At Vimeiro was able to finally shed his maiden tag when further upped in trip to an extended two miles in a Southwell handicap, landing his first career success from a rating of 70 by half-a-length. Having changed hands since, he now resides with Ben Haslam and shaped with promise during his hurdling debut before unseating at the last flight over this course-and-distance.

Although he'll need to avoid any catastrophic errors here, he is entitled to improve with jumping experience and appears a horse to keep on side based on that previous effort. He is bred to have class and, although he failed to show the best of his ability on the Flat for his previous trainer, he could prove effective over obstacles and has the ability to win a race of this nature if he is able to hurdle effectively in his second start in this sphere.

Beverley, 19:20 - Back Urban Sprawl @ 6/17.00

Charlie Johnston-trained Urban Sprawl is one to note in this class, capable of putting in a competitive effort despite not being seen to best effect when last seen at Ascot. He has been dropped 1lb for that fifth-place finish, and is now only 3lb above his last winning mark on a rating of 84.

Earlier this season, the five-year-old gelding put in creditable efforts at both Newmarket and York respectively, finishing fourth in big field, competitive handicaps on both occasions, including when defying odds of 50/151.00 on the Rowley Mile.

Considering he is able to hold his own at a higher level in tough company, Urban Sprawl makes appeal in calmer waters here, and is on a workable mark under Joe Fanning.

Whilst he is yet to strike at Beverley during his career so far, Urban Sprawl could make it third time lucky at the track as he bids for an eighth career success.

Ballinrobe, 20:00 - Back Itsalonglongroad E/W @ 13/27.50

Experienced eleven-year-old Itsalonglongroad makes his 107th start in this 1m5f handicap, seeking a fifth win on the Flat.

Proven at the course previously, the son of Lawman finished second in this race last year when on a 4lb lower mark under returning rider Paddy Harnett, who claims 2lb in the saddle. He put in a bold bid from the front twelve months ago when beaten only by convincing winner Rocky Blue, rallying late on to finish a length clear of third-placed Tannery Park.

Later that year, the Charles Coakley-trained gelding was able to win over fences at the venue, and has been in good form recently over obstacles as well as on his return to Flat racing, finishing third in a mile-and-a-half Tramore handicap when last seen. 

Versatile in regards to the ground, Itsalonglongroad is effective in varied conditions and should be able to make his presence felt in this field as he attempts to go one better than in last year's renewal.

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