Wednesday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin says 14/1 King's Crown tempting at Chester

• Ryan Moore ride worthy favourite in Oaks

• Hadrianus has edge over Vase rivals

• King's Crown tempting at 14/1

The Chester May meeting has come around again and, with it, the usual punting trade-off.

Take an artificially short price about a well-drawn horse, or get ably compensated (or maybe not) if siding with one berthed out wide.

The decision, as they say in in the voiceover to one programme whose names escapes me, is yours.

Unfortunately, it oftens pays to side with the former approach, which is counter-intuitive to my way of betting, but maybe the prospect of soft/heavy ground at Chester on Wednesday afternoon will change that dynamic.

Rain all the way

The going is currently good to soft - surprisingly so as it was given as that description before they had another 6.5mm on Monday - but, as with the Guineas meeting at Newmarket, it looks like rain all the way this week (we could get 17mm Tuesday to Thursday, maybe more, maybe less), which is bad news for the local lasses and their frocks.

And the male no-sock merchants.

What Jer going to do about Dilemma?

14:05 - Tote £100K Guaranteed Placepot Every Day Handicap (3) (Class 3)

We can move swiftly on from the 11-runner Lily Agnes Stakes at 13:30 - unexposed youngsters, two newcomers, in bad ground in a bunfight around that track is not for me - and we have the classic Chester dilemma horse in Jer Batt in the 6f handicap at 14:05.

He destroyed a field in an apprentice handicap off this mark at Musselburgh in a good time at the end of last month (he escapes a penalty due to the nature of that race) and he would have been around a 6/4 poke here if being drawn low. But, as it is, this forward-goer has to negotiate trap 12 of 12.

The first firm up on Monday made him a 3/1 poke (the Sportsbook are 10/3). If he gets a good position early doors, he could easily be trading at evens after a furlong, so much does he have in hand, but he could just as easily be double-figures if he has to play serious catch-up.

Course winner Democracy Dilemma is the obvious alternative but he is hardly drawn in eight, either.

This handicap has no bet written all over it.

O'Brien will sulk if Moore mount doesn't win

14:40 - Weatherbys Digital Solutions Cheshire Oaks (Listed) (1) (Class 1)

Aidan O'Brien had four in the Cheshire Oaks at the five-day stage and he relies on Savethelastdance - ridden by Betfair ambassador Ryan Moore - for a race he has won in four of the last seven years.

And this looked a filly potentially destined for top honours (like her Group 1 winning parents) when winning over 1m2f at Leopardstown on her return.

She went off at 20/1 there (Betfair SP of 30.0) after an underwhelming debut at Thurles at two last October but she was very impressive when winning decisively from the front form a pair of good subsequent winners. Little wonder the bookmakers are taking no chances with the Galileo filly for the Oaks, quoting her as the 6/1 favourite.

I find it hard to be dogmatic in a field of similarly unexposed 3yo fillies (well, a few of these anyway) but O'Brien will surely be sulking big-style if his filly doesn't win this.

She is priced accordingly though - she has come in from an opening 1.991/1 on the Betfair Exchange, and all the 10/11 in the marketplace has been taken - and I am not inclined to play her at those odds. Ralph Beckett's Luckin Brew, the 11/2 second favourite, could be her main rival.

Hadrianus could be equipped to win Vase

15:15 - Boodles Chester Vase Stakes (Group 3) (1) (Class 1)

I can't see a betting angle in the Chester Vase at 15:15 as quite obviously Arrest is the form horse on his Group 1 second to Dubai Mile (a promising fifth in the Guineas) in France last season, a race in which Adelaide River was a six-length third.

The prices are pretty much as you would expect but recent Epsom second Hadrianus has the benefit of a run over his two main market rivals.

He is probably not a bad price at around 5/1 on the Betfair Exchange as a result, without necessarily prompting a tip and a bet, as I am not totally sold on his stamina in the likely ground (he was also entered in the Dee Stakes over 1m2f at the meeting).

King's Crown is worth a second look

15:45 - Camden Pale Handicap (3) (Class 3)

That leaves a 14-runner 6f handicap at 15:45 as the other ITV race on the card.

How's yer luck?!

I have zero inclination to tip for tipping sake on a contest I have no intention of betting in - it promises to be real bumper car action in the ground - so I had a serious look at the other terrestrial race on Wednesday.

Step forward the 2m5f handicap chase at Newton Abbot. Or so I thought.

I had written a lengthy case for Fern Hill and I was just about to file when news came through on Tuesday morning that Newton Abbot had been abandoned due to waterlogged track.

It is the 9th of May, right?

So I went back and had another look at the Chester ITV races to see if I had missed anything.

I thought I could have been a bit too dismissive of the 6f handicap at 15:45, so I centred on that race, and the only horse I may have discarded a touch too early was King's Crown.

I passed him over because he was actually taken out at this meeting last year because of the good to soft ground (Timeform called it soft, though he was drawn six of seven that day, I guess) so I assumed he would be a non-runner again.

And it isn't hard to see him meeting plenty of trouble from his midfield draw in eight.

However, he did run very well on his return when fifth at Newmarket and the handicapper dropped him 1lb for it, which is generous considering the second and third came out and won at the Guineas meeting.

And you can maybe mark up that run as well as he raced prominently, and the first three home all came from off the pace. A mark of 82 looks very exploitable, then.

It would have been very easy for me to tip him at 15.014/1 on the Betfair Exchange now, or 12s each-way, four places, with the Sportsbook - and he did run okay on soft ground on his debut - and simply see him being a non-runner on the day.

But the worst-case scenario is connections letting him run on unsuitably heavy ground to get his mark down a pound or two, and I'd have done my money in cold blood. And publishing your p and l makes you very protective of wasted bets (and your money).

No, it's a no bet card and I am making no excuses or apologies for it.

Back tomorrow.