Tony Calvin Antepost Tips: Two more to back on Saturday at 14/1 and 40/1

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TC has antepost tips for Musselburgh and Sandown

In his second antepost preview of this Saturday's ITV races Tony Calvin adds one more to back at Sandown before putting up a bet at a big price north of the border...


I dealt with the Scilly Isles and the 2m7f+ Heroes Handicap Hurdle at Sandown in an earlier column, so I had a good look at the other six ITV contests on Saturday for this column once the grandson had departed.

I won't keep you too long, but I did think two outsiders were worth a small swing.

Read on.

Please.

Sandown Saturday 13:25 and 14:00 - No bet

I thought the pick of the prices in the 2m3f173yd at Sandown at 13:25 could be Mumford's Magic at 20s with the Sportsbook. But only one of the 15 entries is declared elsewhere and Mumford's Magic looks like a horse who could trade bigger on the day, even if he if gets confirmed on Thursday, for all a mark of 110 could be exploitable, down in trip.

Saint Segal probably ought to have won when second at Lingfield last time, so I wouldn't be in a mad rush to oppose him off the same mark at the Sportsbook's 7/24.50 in the 14:00, a race in which four of his rivals could go elsewhere.

The 4s in the wider marketplace (in six places on the ever-important Oddschecker grid) is a point bigger than I would lay myself.

Sandown Saturday 15:45 - Back Certainly Red

The 3m37yd handicap chase at 15:45 has attracted 22 entries but it could cut up a touch with a few double-entries and some others are in Haydock's Grand National Trial on February 17. So I was tempted by the Sportsbook's offer of 14/115.00 each-way, four places, about Certainly Red.

I appreciate he is 16s elsewhere (though as low as 12s in a place) but I thought 14s was very fair.

So do I pull the trigger?

The downside is that he comes here on the back of an underwhelming run at Newbury last time but he was in fair form prior to that. As a result of the latest effort, he can race off a mark of 135 on a track on which he has a pretty good record.

And drying ground (Sandown are actually planning to water the chase track on Wednesday) will suit him, I feel.

He won easily off this mark at Wincanton last February and he has posted some of his better efforts at this course.

He had the speed to win over 2m4f here last January and he was racing from a mark of 142 when a fair seventh in the Bet365 Gold Cup here in April.

In summary, he is worth a small each-way punt at 14/115.00, though of course if you can get two points bigger then do so.

Back Certainly Red e-w @ 14/115.00

Bet now

Musselburgh Saturday 14:45 - Back Collingham

Up at Musselburgh, I had no real lean in the 2m4f+ handicap chase at 13:40, even though the fact that eight of the 12 entries have an alternative engagement could potentially make it a very good betting heat.

Eight of the 15 in the Edinburgh National at 14:15 are double-entered (I am still unsure whether to write doubly-entered, or indeed whether I should hyphenate either option) but I don't have a betting opinion here either.

However, I do in the Scottish County Handicap Hurdle at 14:50, and that is 100pc driven by price.

Mind you, every bet and tip should be.

Back Collingham at 40/141.00 each-way, four places, with the Sportsbook.

Back Collingham e-w @ 40/141.00

Bet now

Nine of his potential 22 rivals could go elsewhere, so that is why I am going each-way.

He has gone backwards since a fair reappearance here in November - in severe reverse in fact, with subsequent runs at Doncaster and at this course last time leaving a fair bit to be desired - but the upside is that he has dropped to a mark of just 119 and we get the 40s quote as a result.

That is 2lb lower than when beating Parisiencore and Kihavah (who could re-oppose here) in this very race last season - and with some level of dominance too, at the line - and hopefully he has been sweetened up for a repeat bid after a mediocre run here on soft ground on New Year's Day.

It should dry up at the track from Thursday onwards (it is currently good to soft, soft in places, with more rain to come on Wednesday) and that will be in his favour.

Look, he will need to seriously up his game here after his two poor recent runs but most of his best form has come at this track off higher marks on good to soft or better ground, and I am happy to take the risk at the odds on offer.

That 40s is not an isolated price, and is available in four places, so I am not cherry-picking. I only play at one set of odds anyway, not across the board.

Good luck.


Now Read Tony Calvin Antepost Tips: 33/1 Wonderwall is worth a nibble at Sandown on Saturday


Watch this week's Weighed-In

Recommended bets

Back Collingham @ 40/141.00 each-way, four places, in 14:50 with Betfair Sportsbook at Musselburgh on Saturday

Back Certainly Red @ 14/115.00 each-way, four places, in 15:45 at Sandown with Betfair Sportsbook on Saturday

PROFIT AND LOSS (Nov 1 onwards; 2023-24 NH season)

STAKED: 56

RETURN: 108.7

P/L: +52.7

PROFIT AND LOSS (April 16-Oct 31; 2023 Flat season)

STAKED: 202

RETURNS: 168.9

P AND L: -33.1

Exchange bets settled at Betfair SP for fairness

Tony Calvin

Horse racing expert

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