Tony Calvin Antepost Tips: Tariyana could prove smart pick come Saturday

We have Group 1 action in England this Saturday in the shape of the Sun Chariot at Newmarket. A cracking race is in store if the big guns stand their ground - and keep an eye out for double-entries here, including in France - but I am not going to bore you analysing the race and then declaring "no bet".

Mind you, I usually tend to. And I actually just changed my mind, so bear with me!

The Sportsbook have priced up all eight Saturday ITV races, but there are only two handicaps among them.

I will focus on these first, as they are the races I favour most to bet on, but before then the normal housekeeping at the three courses featuring on the terrestrial coverage.

The ground at Newmarket is currently good but I'd be betting on soft from the current forecast.

It is also good at Ascot, but it could verge towards soft with plenty of rain expected from Thursday onwards.

And up at Redcar it is good to firm (good in places). But they are due a frightening amount of rain all week from the site I use and it could be heavy if it all lands, with 24mm currently forecast alone on Wednesday on the yr.no site. I am working on the assumption of soft for now, though.

No rush to back Rousay

My interest in the 1m2f handicap at 13:31 at Newmarket - it is pointless going with these random off times given this course is one of many high-profile offenders in not even attempting to stick to schedule - pretty much began and ended with Rousay.

One because I thought she had outstanding claims, and two because I initially messed up when making that assessment. Luckily I copped on to the error soon after!

She won in Listed company when scoring at Salisbury when rated just 85, and she then split 110 and 111-rated horses at Goodwood last time, albeit getting weight there.

I thought she could off race her old mark of 95 here, but she has to run off her revised mark of 102, and her price of 5/2 suddenly looks very easy to avoid.

She must drift, especially as she is set meet progressive horses from top yards, so you have to delay a bet on her for the time being.

I think you also have to have a compelling price reason to get involved in the 49-strong 7f handicap at Ascot (at 15:36).

Clearly, the layers were always going to price this up pretty defensively and, with a maximum field of 18, I think you can be pretty sure you will get an extra place (maybe two) at the weekend.

Obviously, I have a lot of history with Koy Koy, who was never in with a chance after falling out of the stalls when a big late drifter at Ayr last time - the jockey could have been a bit more urgent, too - but he is number 36 in the list and he clearly may struggle to get a run.

In fact, he must be about a 25s chance to do so.

Safe Voyage is a risk worth taking

All of the usual suspects are in here, and I imagine most are likely to stand their ground with a whopping 92k to the winner, so maybe even the likes of Safe Voyage, who needs four to come out, may not even get in.

Obviously, you get your money back if you punt him now and he is balloted out - the worry is always that trainers won't even declare if they think they won't or can't get a run - and that makes Safe Voyage probably the most attractive win-only bet at 12/1 with the Sportsbook.

He was rated 116 at his peak, and this is a horse who finished third in a QEII here on heavy ground in 2019, and he really should have won at Leopardstown off 97 last time, storming home to take second to I'm A Gambler from a very unpromising position turning in.

He went up 3lb for that, but the 9yo is clearly well treated still, and the forecast rain is very much in the favour of this mud-lover.

Trainer John Quinn could be in a touch better form I suppose, though he has had a few placed runners and some near misses of late, but this is a well handicapped horse highly liked to be suited by the weekend conditions if sneaking in at the bottom of the weights.

I was going to wait to see if he gets in on Thursday and go from there, when I will also have a better idea of the likely ground at Ascot, but, on balance, the 12/1 now is worth taking. Odds of 10s and no lower is the guide price.

I don't usually tip or bet in 2yo races but, with the Redcar ground set to change dramatically, I wondered if there was an angle into the Two Year Old Trophy (at 15:21), even if there is a maximum potential field of 23.

Of the 29 entries, only eight have shown form on officially soft ground - Hour By Hour, King's Crown, Ancestral Land, Tagline, Signora Camacho, Oahu, Catwalk Model and Primrose Ridge - and they bring varying levels of potency to the table.

The two that appealed most were Ancestral Land and Tagline at 12s and 10s respectively.

Ancestral Land gets the nod at Redcar

Tagline is the more solid of the pair, form-wise and on the clock, and she is only set to carry 8st 9lb here.

That makes her the form pick at these weights alongside Cold Case and her Group race exploits against the likes of Lezoo and Mawj - and she clearly ran well again with a length third in the Dick Poole at Salisbury last time- mark her out as big at 10s here.

But her best form has come on good or quicker, and Timeform called her officially soft-ground Windsor win as good to soft, and, more importantly, I also hear she is not a certain runner.

No dice there then.

Ancestral Land is more speculative, form-wise as his Chepstow win at heavy odds-on official soft (though again Timeform only called it good to soft), means very little, with the placed horses summarily stuffed next time.

But he finished a good second to Al Karrar on his debut at Windsor (the winner finished second in the Group 2 Richmond Stakes next time up) and this 140,000 guineas yearling did win in a common canter at Chepstow and clearly has a lot of upside.

He was also taken out of a conditions race at Salisbury on Thursday, presumably to come here for this 85k-to-the winner pot. For what it is worth, Rossa Ryan is jocked up.

Back him at 12/1 and 10s would be fine.

I was going to leave it there until I saw a potential angle into the Sun Chariot, after all.

Tariyana appeals at current price

Five of the 13 entries currently have alternatives in France this weekend (Homeless Songs, Tenebrism, Lights On, Oscula and By All Means), so I think a bet on a horse hopefully going in the opposite direction travel-wise is justified.

Back Tariyana at 33/1 each way with the Betfair Sportsbook in the 14:42 at Newmarket. Odds 20/1 would be an absolute minimum for her.

Her trainer is 0 from 4 in England this year, but Ebaiyra was only just touched off in the Dahlia Stakes here in May and he is clearly a top-notch operator, probably best known for the likes of The Revenant over here.

It is interesting that she has no home entries and has been pitched in here at Group 1 level, as we haven't seen her since winning a Group 3 over 1m1f at Chantilly in July, a race in which they dispensed with the hood and let her go from the front.

She appeared to run out of gas in the French Oaks previously and it could be that she is more of a miler, for all she is by Sea The Stars out of a 1m2f winner, and you had to love the way she did it last time, with the runner-up winning in Listed company on her following start.

The break is an obvious concern but 33/1 each way could prove a good option about this lightly-raced filly come Saturday afternoon.

Another aggressive ride, down in trip, without headgear could just bring about the improvement needed.

Good luck.

Profit and Loss (from March 26)

Staked: 207

Returns: 308.8pts

P/L: +101.8

Previous (April 14 2021 to March 25 2022)

P/L: + 183.1