Tony Calvin Antepost Tips: Heatwave means waiting is wise

An odds-on shot in the Irish Oaks, summer jumping making an appearance from Market Rasen in blistering heat and just one handicap in Newbury's four-race offering makes ITV viewing on Saturday a touch low on quality and interest.

But we have this discussion at this time every year after "Super Saturday" has stolen most of the short-term goodies the weekend before, so I am not going to bore you, and myself, by trailing over that old ground again.

What makes ante-post betting this weekend even harder is the current heatwave.

As we have seen with some pitiful field sizes again this week - I know Bath has its challenges but they had just 31 overnight decs on Tuesday (before non-runners), though Brighton on Wednesday is not much better, and, overall, racing is in a pretty dark place at the moment - the likely lightning quick ground everywhere will no doubt deter plenty from running.

However, at the time of publishing, the official ground at Newbury is actually good (good to firm in places) and Market Rasen is good, and bon chance to the tracks trying to maintain that description.

The latter course is putting on 10mm daily between now and Saturday, but I doubt that will be enough to stave off a fast surface with these 30c+ temperatures.

On the day itself, it must be set to firm up within hours, however much water they have put on it in the days beforehand.

And while I appreciate all courses will douse the ground whenever and wherever possible, and probably over-water, some trainers may even decide travelling horses in the heat is a welfare no-no.

All things told, I am not sure I am going to be sticking up an ante-post recommendation this week - on the other side of the coin, it must have been hard for the bookmakers to price up these contests, too - but let's go through the ITV races, starting with Newbury.

You never know...

The first race to be priced up on Monday afternoon was the 200k Weatherbys Super Sprint at 3.30pm and you will find easier puzzles to solve than this 2yo race, which has attracted 27 entries.

The Richards, Hannon and Fahey, have won seven of the last nine renewals but the problem is that they always tend to come mob-handed.

Hannon has five entries, but surprisingly Fahey relies on only two at the five-day stage.

Neither supply the form pick though, as that honour falls to David O'Meara's Maria Branwell and she is not actually a bad 4.57/2 chance - the 4s in the marketplace was taken on Monday - as her Queen Mary third on fast ground makes her the obvious one to beat here at the weights (and on the clock).

In fact, it was obviously a very fair price, as she has just been trimmed into 11/4.

Surprisingly though, the Betfair Sportsbook - and indeed most of the bookmakers - initially preferred the claims of Rogue Spirit at 5/2, even though he has the added task of having to give 3lb to O'Meara's filly.

Of the outsiders, 26.025/1 chance Safari Dream is probably the most interesting as he did well to finish third at Windsor, considering he came widest up the middle of the track, and his trainer Rod Millman (who has another brace in here) was one of the two trainers to breaks the Hannon-Fahey stranglehold in recent years when winning this with Bettys Hope in 2019.

But there is no need to get involved now, as the 200k pot will probably ensure enough runners come the day to see four or five places for each-way punters on Thursday onwards. I hope so, anyway.

Haggas' form losing our value

The second race to be priced up on Monday was the 17-runner Hackwood Stakes (at 2.56pm, no less) and, again, I have seen easier races to unpick - mind you, in my current form, I'd get a 2/1 bet on head or tails beaten ten times over - so I was surprised by Sense Of Duty being put in as short as 2/1 when the first firm went up, and the Sportsbook are now 7/4.

I suppose that is not strictly true. Bookmakers always fight shy of all William Haggas' horses these days (with a seasonal strike rate of 27 per cent who can blame them?), and this filly was seriously impressive in winning a Group 3 at Newcastle last time.

But she incurs a 3lb penalty for that win and she meets a totally different calibre of opposition here, headed by the Wokingham winner Rohaan, closely followed by horses with Group 1 form such as Man Of Promise, last year's winner Happy Romance, who ran well from stall one in the July Cup on Saturday, likes quick ground, is a hardy soul who takes her racing well, and has a two-from-four course record - alongside Minzaal.

So if you are backing Sense Of Duty you are paying a lot for the profile. Too much in my opinion at current odds. I can't see much juice behind anything else in the market, though.

Happy Romance is the obvious alternative to the favourite but 6.05/1 with the Sportsbook is short enough to my way of thinking. She would be backing up very quickly, after all.

Missed The Cut's Golden impression

Few horses made a bigger impression at Royal Ascot than Missed The Cut.

Rumours of a rather devastating gallop in the lead-up to the meeting meant he was never going to be priced up over-generously, even though his two victories came at odds of 4/7 in maiden and novice company, but, boy, was he impressive in spreadeagling the field in his 1m2f handicap.

The form has yet to be properly tested with none of the first five home coming out since (though admittedly the ones that have run have been well-beaten), but the manner of the win and the time suggests he could be a very serious tool.

Odds became available on the Sportsbook for the 1m2f Listed race (at 1:50pm) on Tuesday morning and it was no surprise to see him as the 7/4 favourite.

By the way, the trainer of Cadillac (his main market rival at 5/2) in the same race reports that he is worried about the quickening ground for his horse, who also has an entry in France next week . So maybe keep your powder dry for now if you fancy that one.

The Sportsbook are the only firm to have priced up the 2m handicap (at 2.21pm) and they have 3/1 Inchicore just shading favouritism over 7/2 chance Going Gone.

Summer fun at Market Rasen

The two big handicaps at Market Rasen have also been priced up, with the progressive Mortlach put in as the 7.06/1 favourite in the Summer Plate at 3:14pm.

The problem if you back him is that he has never raced on anything quicker than officially good ground (an assessment backed up by Timeform), so that has to be a concern of sorts if you are playing all-in on the ante-post front.

And that applies to a lot of horses in the 21-strong five-day entry. Going through all 21, it is amazing how the word firm doesn't appear in a lot of their form lines, full stop.

I just don't see much point in getting involved at the moment.

More horses have proven fast-ground form in the 16-strong Summer Hurdle at 2.41pm, a race in which Galata Bridge is the 4.03/1 favourite despite having been put up 12lb for his Huntingdon win in May.

But, given the layers are pricing up defensively across the board, the running doubts and the probability of enhanced place terms after the final decs (currently three places), it is prudent to wait once again.

I appreciate that is not ideal for the purposes of this column, but if I am not risking my own money, it would hardly be professional for me to advise you to bet.

The four-day entries have just come through for Saturday's Irish Oaks and the odds-on Emily Upjohn faces 10 rivals, as it stands.

It is a slightly disappointing turnout numbers-wise (though I am being harsh there), and, as with all the weekend racing , the weather could yet have an even bigger say. Let's hope the Classic field holds up, though.

Good luck. Probably back on Friday morning.