Tony Calvin Antepost Tips: Back Beckett's outsider in wide open Epsom Oaks

The Epsom Classic decks experienced some hard shuffling at York last week, so I thought I would give the revised Oaks and Derby betting a quick spin in my first ante-post column.

In fact, I am going to park the Derby to one side, as I don't think there is much of a betting angle into the race with Desert Crown and Stone Age rightly dominating the market, though supporters of Ballysax winner Piz Badile will have been glad to hear Frankie Dettori was booked for the ride on Monday.

The market that interested me most is the Oaks (currently just the 18 entries, though we could get supplementary entries, notably Lingfield Trial winner Rogue Millennium), and I have been trying to find out the running plans for the filly I was considering putting up here, but it is 11:30am on Monday morning as I type this line and I still haven't heard back yet.

So much for my moles, so I'll leave her until the end of the piece when I will have to tip or get off the pot.

Emily's on an Upward trajectory

We have to start with the new dominant market leader in Emily Upjohn, currently trading at 2.568/5 on the Exchange, having hit a high of 55.054/1 when the market first opened.

She was still 10/1 in a place with some fixed-odds firms immediately after her Sandown reappearance romp (albeit the second was similarly and summarily stuffed at Ascot next time) but she was 6s by the end of that day, and it would probably be churlish to argue with the Exchange price of 6/4 after what she did at York in the Musidora.

She again looked a filly potentially out of the top drawer in winning by 5 ½ lengths ( fellow Oaks entrants Life Of Dreams and Ching Shih and The Algarve followed her home in that).

The only negatives you could scrape from that performance was that she was too keen early doors and, as a colossal specimen apparently standing 17 hands, some have questioned her suitability for Epsom.

Outside of her though, nothing is getting me too worried, though perhaps I should mention 14/1 chance Tranquil Lady before I forget her.

It is also worth noting that two of the 18-strong entries are entered this week. Emotion is in at Lingfield on Thursday, and also on Friday at Goodwood along with Ottilien.

Second favourite Tuesday may be a sister to Oaks winner Minding but she didn't immediately strike me as crying out for a trip when third in the Guineas, and she could easily fall by the wayside if underperforming on an apparently intended start in the Irish version on Sunday.

I am a big fan of third favourite Nashwa, stablemate of Emily Upjohn, and she did it smoothly over 1m2f at Newbury last weekend, but she doesn't lack pace (she still holds a Coronation Stakes entry) and, while she may have been idling, my firm impression is that she didn't need an extra 2f at the end of her race at Newbury.

Indeed, connections seems to be mulling over the extended 1m2f option of the French Oaks for her, so I don't think you can back her at the moment (though on my final sweep of the prices before this column went live, I see her last traded price on the Exchange was just 8.07/1, so someone likes her).

At a similar (ish) price on the exchange, With The Moonlight certainly brings an unknown element into the mix after her Listed race success over 1m2f at Newmarket at the start of the month.

I am not sure about the overall strength of that form but she certainly saw the 1m2f out well. The Frankel influence may well see her get 1m4f standing on her head but the dam was a 5f-6f performer and her full sister Dream Castle was best up to 1m1f. Her stamina is not a given.

Aidan O'Brien's short-head Salsabil winner Concert Hall is not floating my boat at 10s with the Betfair Sportsbook , though her pedigree, by Dubawi out of Oaks winner Was, gives you plenty of encouragement stepping up to 1m4f will see her progress.

It will need to, mind you.

O'Brien (pictured below) still has six in the race and, in addition to Tuesday, The Algarve and Concert Hall, he left Leopardstown winner History, Sunday's French 1,000 Guineas 10th Toy and Chester scorer Thoughts Of June in here at a recent forfeit stage.

If you back this weekend's intended (or at least I think they are) Irish 1000 Guineas runners Tuesday and History (I think five-day entries are out for that Classic on Tuesday, and they may even include other Oaks entries) then good luck - I'd rather wait myself - and who knows what they will do with Toy after her somewhat underwhelming run in France on Sunday.

Given she is a Galileo, they may let her take her chance at Epsom, stepping up to 1m4f, but she comes from a predominantly miling family, and a raft of miling blueboods at that.

It could well be the Cheshire Oaks Trial, won by a neck from Thoughts Of June, from Above The Curve, with Moon De Vega over six lengths away in fourth, that provides the unlikely key to this Classic, one that has the capacity to cut up a fair deal.

I have been trying to find out possible running plans Moon De Vega for the past 24 hours. I didn't like to ring the trainer directly as I don't think tipsters should be doing that, and putting them in an awkward situation (plus I was scared he would give me a verbal kicking for wifully mispronouncing his first name in podcasts).

I'm still without luck so far, so was torn as to whether to stick her up at 66/1 each-way with the Sportsbook or not.

Beckett's lively outsider for the Oaks

What I do know is that Ralph Beckett intends to send his Derby hope Westover for the Breakfast With the Stars-type work morning at Epsom next Monday, and no mention has been made of Moon De Vega accompanying him.

That's a negative right there, then.

However, he left the filly in the race at a forfeit stage last week - when he took out his Luna Dorada, who was last of five in the Musidora - so Epsom must be an option of sorts, and he could well have a very lively outsider on his hands in a dwindling Classic field in the weeks to come.

Yes, they may wait for the Ribblesdale 13 days later, but I am going to bite the bullet and suggest a small each bet on her at 66s and 50s would do, too.

Clearly, she has a lot to find with the two fillies that finished in front of her at Chester before we even get to the market leaders.

And we are talking more stones, not pounds, as she is rated only 95 (mind you, Talent was rated just 96 going into the Oaks, and she won by 3 ¼ lengths).

But it was obvious that she shaped far, far better than her fourth there. She was travelling well on the inside turning in, before getting stopped in her tracks, and then her jockey had little option but to wait for room, switch her to the outside and coast home up the straight. She wasn't losing any ground on the front two despite a minimal drive.

Go and take a look at the video yourself, but I thought it was a hugely encouraging first run of the reason and we all know how masterful Beckett (pictured below with Betfair Ambassador Ryan Moore) has been in this Classic before.

He took it most recently with Talent, having her fourth start, in 2013 and Look Here, after just two runs beforehand, at odds of 33/1in 2018.

Look Here won the race off the back of a Lingfield Oaks Trial defeat and it is interesting to see that his Manuela De Vega finished fourth at 16/1 in the 2019 Oaks, having been beaten at Chester before when also suffering trouble in running.

Beckett can take a swing when required then, and he will know this Classic is wide open if the favourite underperforms. And there are signs that his stable are just beginning to find their stride now after a below-par few weeks.

As it stands, nothing else can scare him outside of Emily Upjohn.

We may be doing our money in cold blood here - so apologies if so - but I will take my chances at 66s, and 50s (the latter price is the lowest in the marketplace), if necessary. Sometimes the trainer's MO is equally as important as the horse.

I hope so, anyway.

And if you know Ralph, stick this article under his nose. Ta.

Profit and Loss (from March 26; does not include Thursday's results)

Staked: 85

Returns: 175.9pts

P/L: +90.9

Previous (April 14 2021 to March 25 2022)

P/L: + 183.1