Sunday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin's trio of bets from 11/2 to 16/1

• 11/26.50 Dinoblue looks worth chancing to beat El Fabiolo

• 16/117.00 Hollow Games can go well in wide-opn handicap

• 6/17.00 Lily Du Berlais has a great chance at Musselburgh

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Another 10 races on ITV on Sunday, and I'll start at Leopardstown, which hosts another four Grade 1s. The ground was soft on the hurdles track, and yielding to soft on the chase circuit, on Friday morning with very little rain forecast in the next 48 hours.

Leopardstown - 13:10: No Bet

To be honest, I'm happiest getting down and dirty in big-field handicaps rather than assessing the classier contests, but every day we get to see a talent as huge as Gaelic Warrior is a good one.

It may be a day late for most, but he lines up in the 2m5f107yd novices' chase at 13:10 instead of the Irish Arkle on Saturday.

Willie Mullins had eight of the 13 in here at the five-day stage but he goes with three, of which Gaelic Warrior is the current top dog.

He certainly is with the Time Bandits anyway, as they were swooning and fainting after clocking his time at Limerick and, a winner from 2m to 3m, you can add versatility to his undoubted ability.

I wouldn't be in a mad rush to oppose him at any trip in most company, even if his stablemates Grangeclere West and Fact To File will rightly have their supporters (Gordon Elliott has two in here for Bective Stud, but Found A Fifty, in on Saturday, surely only runs if he has an early mishap in the Irish Arkle).

In fact, I am surprised he is as big as 10/111.91 with the Sportsbook.

However, I'd have to have had a fair few ales in me to play, or tip, at odds-on in horse racing, which is a bit of drawback at this meeting, I grant you.

Leopardstown - 13:40: No Bet

The 2m novices' hurdle division is ripe for a shake-up and everyone is holding out for a hero in the 13:40.

We don't have a great deal of hurdling information to go on in this race, and every horse has the potential to make a big leap forward, so I found it hard to have a strong opinion. Furthermore, the pace map didn't throw up too many clues, either.

Mullins has five in here but initially I looked away from him with Farren Glory and Slade Steel, with a lean for the former, as he dug it out well when beating stablemate King Of Kingsfield in the Royal Bond and he looked to have gained a yard of pace when coming down 2 out when cruising in the Tolworth at Aintree last time.

That looked a bad tumble on Boxing Day so, for all this is a Grade 1, I just wonder whether they will really gun him to win this. I am not inclined to force a bet, especially as I wanted bigger than the Sportsbook's 3/14.00. Mind you, that is pretty much his price across the board.

I also thought Slade Steel would be available at more generous odds than 11/26.50 too, behind the 10/111.91 favourite Ballyburn. He is 8s elsewhere to be fair, so the Sportsbook want him onside, which I can fully see.

Leopardstown - 14:10: Back Dinoblue

The 2m1f Dublin Chase at 14:10 only attracted six entries on Tuesday, and thankfully we only lost Fastorslow at the overnight stage.

The betting suggests El Fabiolo, beaten only by Constitution Hill when completing since coming over from France, is a good thing for this race at 1/31.33, but I am not so sure.

Dinoblue is currently the Sportsbook's 5/42.25 jolly for the mares' chase for that thing next month, and an industry-best 10/111.00 third favourite for the Champion Chase, and I just have an inkling that she could really stick her hand up for the latter.

Of course, there is also the possibility that she could win here, and still go down the female-only route next month, but that is a discussion for later.

At the moment, I think she is well worth a bet at 11/26.50 with the Sportsbook to beat her odds-on stablemate.

With her 7lb sex allowance factored in, she only has 6lb to find with El Fabiolo on official ratings and she comes in here on a roll, being very impressive when beating Gentleman De Mee here by 7 ½ lengths over Christmas.

I appreciate the 165-rated runner-up didn't run up to his best there, but I am not underestimating the merit of the success, and the expected slightly better ground here could suit here, too.

Of course, El Fabiolo is the most likely winner, but Dinoblue is surely the bet at the prices. She may not have done it on the clock yet, but her form trajectory is impressive, and hopefully it can ascend further.

At the prices, I'll take my chances. And she is also a very tempting 10/111.91 in the Sportsbook betting without the favourite. I wouldn't lay 4/61.67 myself.

Leopardstown - 14:45: No Bet

On Tuesday, there were just five confirmed for the Irish Champion Hurdle at 14:45 but all stand their ground.

State Man looks an improved model this season and he will be very hard to beat (as odds of 2/71.29 imply) but I just wonder whether they will try something different with Impaire Et Passe, beaten 3 ½ lengths by his stablemate in the Matheson Hurdle last time.

After all, if they ride him the same way, they will get the same result.

The rank outsider and outclassed Fils D'oudairies looks the pace angle on paper but I wouldn't be surprised to see Impaire Et Passe sent from the front, and that could make things very interesting for a horse who looked so good when dismissing Gaelic Warrior in the Ballymore.

I was tempted by the 9/25.50 before reining myself in. One shock I can see happening, but two may be a stretch.

Leopardstown - 15:20: Back Hollow Games

Aaah, what is this I see before me? A 25-runner 2m5f107yd handicap chase at 15:20.

Unfortunately, it looks ridiculously competitive, so confidence does not enter the discussion, but Hollow Games is worth a small interest at 17.016/1 or bigger on the exchange, or 16/117.00 with the Sportsbook.

The fixed-odds quote is the best around if you want to get filled straight away (the Sportsbook are paying five places for each way punters but I'll go win-only considering the depth of the race).

He obviously hasn't kicked on since winning his first five starts, but he is a course winner with Grade 1-placed novices' hurdle form here too (at this very meeting), and I like the angle of him dropping back in trip on better ground off a slightly reduced handicap mark (though the handicapper could have been more generous than a 1lb drop, that is for sure).

He doesn't seem to stay 3m, especially in testing ground, but last summer's Galway Plate third may just be ready to strike again given the more suitable conditions.

A very slow jump at the last, before they turned in, could have cost him dearly at Galway, so I reckon he shaped much better than a beaten distance of 9 ½ lengths suggests.

Musselburgh - 13:20: No Bet

The ground is currently described as good to soft, soft in places, at Musselburgh, with a dry Friday and Saturday in store, but maybe 4mm landing on Sunday from early morning onwards. The five ITV races have held up pretty well numbers-wise.

Liari and An Bradan Feasa dominated the ante-post market (though I'm not sure it will have traded that much) and they both confirmed on Friday morning for the Scottish Triumph Hurdle at 13:20.

That was probably fair enough, despite them carrying 5lb and 3lb penalties respectively here - though they have actually both drifted a touch in the revised betting - as they boast the best form going into the race.

And in An Bradan Feasa's case, also the best speed figure credentials. I'd marginally favour him of the two at the top of the market, but there is a strong form argument that Balboa, now with Seamus Mullins, is the bet at 8s at these weights.

I don't have a strong opinion though, especially as I have no idea how long Mullins has had the horse, and Kempton runner-up Roaring Legend has to enter the equation, too.

In truth, I found most of the Musselburgh races pretty unappealing.

Musselburgh - 13:50: No Bet

That said, the 12/113.00 outsider of seven, Dreams Of Home, could be the way to go if you want a bet in the 2m handicap chase at 13:50.

He has dropped to a mark of just 121, 14lb lower than he has won off, and you can forgive him his last two runs if you were being charitable on account of the 2m4f+ trip at Doncaster last time and the Sandown soft ground before that.

He somehow traded at 1.758/11 in running when a fair third off a 6lb higher mark here in November - he never looked like winning to my eyes- and the pace-set up in here could well suit him, as five of his six rivals have gone forward in the recent past.

I won't put him up as a tip, as he can hardly be a confident selection, but he makes the most appeal at the prices. The 12s is the best price around.

Musselburgh - 14:25: Back Lily Du Berlais

The 1m7f124ys novices' hurdle at 14:25 is a competitive little heat, and I had it between Recoup and Lily Du Berlais at 4s and 6s with the Sportsbook respectively.

A fair middle-distance sort on the Flat in France, we haven't seen Recoup since winning at Ludlow in October, but it sounded like a rest was always the plan after that - "he is light-framed and won't be over-raced this season" - and that win has worked out well enough, as the second was 11 lengths clear of the third and has won since and taken in Grade 2 company without being totally disgraced. The time was decent, too.

But the absence has to be concern of sorts (I was toying with dutching the pair), which led me solely to Lily Du Berlais getting 12lb from five of her rivals, and 8lb off the other.

Considering this mare was mixing it with very classy sorts in Graded company last season - and with distinction, too - she looks the pick of the weights here, and she was also a Grade 2 winner in bumpers, a sphere in which she ran Jetara to 1 ¼ lengths, giving her 3lb.

Throw in the fact that she goes well when fresh, and she won on her only other trip to Scotland, and the 6/17.00 simply looks too big, even if Ben Bromley can't claim his usual 5lb, which is an obvious negative. It is widely available too.

The absence of Bromley's claim downgrades it to a modest wager, however.

Musselburgh - 15:00: No Bet

The Pertemps qualifier at 15:00 has attracted 15 entries and the layers were always going to be exceptionally wary of Emmet Mullins' Almuhit, for all he was stuffed 39 lengths when sent off a 9/25.50 poke in a 21-runner handicap over 2m4f at Leopardstown over Christmas.

But you can see why they would be.

Emmet is Emmet and this horse a brother to Taghrooda, he was rated 94 on the Flat, and the step up in trip should suit a horse who won over 2m1f on the level. A tongue-tie has been fitted, and he can race off a mark of just 117 (rated 114 in Ireland).

The Sportsbook's 5/16.00 could be either an absolute gift or a custard pie of a bet. I'll let you decide, as I haven't got a clue. Curley Finger is more solid at 12s as a course winner coming here off a victory but he is 2lb wrong and four points bigger elsewhere.

Musselburgh - 15:35: No Bet

I make no apologies for keeping it tight betting-wise on Sunday - we have to practice what we preach when it comes to responsible gambling, and punting and tipping accordingly when we don't have strong views - and I am afraid I have also drawn a blank in the 2m4f68yd handicap chase at 15:35.

I could make a case for any of the eight in here (I am assuming Magna Sam, in on Saturday, will be a non-runner) at the prices, even 25s chance A Wave Of The Sea.

If this is Petit Tonnerre's day, then he is handicapped to do some damage off 137, up in trip, but Kempton runner-up Outlaw Peter is probably the more solid option.

However, they are just 7/24.50 and 10/34.33 respectively, and fate dictates that if I backed either of those then Frero Banbou would put in a clear round of jumping for once and dance home.

So just the two bets to small stakes at the DRF for me, and the sole Musselburgh punt.

I may add an update if I see another bet when I do another price sweep on Saturday morning, but that is unlikely.

Go well on a great weekend of racing.

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