Sunday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin takes a flier on Diocletian at Musselburgh

I know we are meant to be utilising Sundays a lot more in viewer-friendly slots but I am not totally sold on ITV tagging on the Musselburgh card on the back of the two-day Epsom meeting.

And that view was cemented when I looked through the seven races, especially as I am trying to wean myself off betting in sprint handicaps (hence none of the opening three contests at Musselburgh appeal, with a six-runner maiden kicking things off).

Suffice to say, it is tough going, so this column will be one of my briefer missives.

Take a leap of faith with Diocletian

On a day where I don't fancy many, I am going to take a complete flier with Diocletian at 34.033/1 or bigger in the 2m handicap at 17:15.

He is 33/1 with the Betfair Sportsbook if you want to back him there and get filled straight away (they are paying four places but this horse is a win-only bet).

He has shown precious little in three starts since joining Keith Dalgleish but he has been dropped an amazing 16lb for those efforts - and his jockey takes off another 5lb - and that dismissal could prove a touch generous and premature.

He is a very tricky individual but he didn't shape entirely without promise (off a 16lb higher mark) in the ultra-competitive Queen's Cup here in April and his 2020 form, when he finished third in the Old Borough Cup at Haydock off a 20lb higher mark than this for Andrew Balding, basically sees him win this.

That's a fair old leap, but he is a fair old price.

Big run could be on the cards for Muntadab

I like Pearl Glory in the 17:45 but not her price of 11/4 , but Muntadab is well worth a nibble at 16/1 each way, four places, in the 18:15.

He hasn't fallen down the handicap as much as Diocletian but he has come down 8lb for his three runs this season, and a big run could be on the cards if he can get to the front from stall eight.

He is a very effective handicapper when getting on the lead, which he may do here, and he has bundles of course form, with two wins (including in this race last season) and a brace of photo-finish defeats.

He was a little disappointing at Haydock last time but his previous York run gives him a chance and he is down in grade to a 0-80 handicap. And that is the betting angle.

The last three times he has run in this band of handicap he has won, and the class-dropper looks overpriced to me.

I'll leave it there.

Best of luck.

Profit and Loss (from March 26)

Staked: 101

Returns: 177.9pts

P/L: +76.9

Previous (April 14 2021 to March 25 2022)

P/L: + 183.1