-
Fort George and Indalo both placed in Alan's 1-2-3 for the Cambridgshire
-
Rain forecast could see a swing in favourite for Group 1
-
Alan Dudman previews Saturday's big race at Newmarket
Expected rain to dent the chances of Cinderella's Dream?
Rain on Friday for Newmarket's big Group 1 could alter the arithmetic somewhat and reports of a deluge on its way certainly makes it precarious for backers of the favourite Cinderella's Dream.
She's the 15/82.88 fav on the Sportsbook at the time of writing during luncheon on Friday but all four of her runs this year, and five if you count Meydan, have been on good or good to firm and her two victories on good to firm.
Her record at Newmarket already is colossal and with wins on both the July Course and Rowley Mile, but the ground presents a major problem for me.
Blue Bolt and Lady Of Spain not far behind
Fallen Angel, a fellow Group 1 winner in the field like Cinderella's Dream was at least strong in the betting on Friday from 3/14.00 into 5/23.50 on the Sportsbook and at least won't have the worries in terms of the potential soft ground in store.
She was fourth in the 2024 Prix De L'Opera in very soft in Group 1 company and has two wins this term both over Saturday's trip of 1m.
Indeed, from racing over 1m2f last term she has developed the pace at the top level to race over shorter and won the Matron with yielding in the description recently.
Lady Of Spain just keeps on winning and her first try on turf last time in the Group 3 Atalanta Stakes at Sandown was a winning one - and also on recorded soft ground.
She beat Blue Bolt there, who had previously won the Listed race on the Eclipse card at Sandown on quick ground, but the Juddmonte-owned filly seemed to act fine on the soft behind Lady Of Spain.
Both need to improve on form level. Considering Cinderella's Dream and Fallen Angel have Timeform ratings of 127 and 125, Lady Spain's 123p and Blue Bolt's 121p do not leave them with a mountain to climb in terms of bridging the gap and Varian's filly is improving.
There is a massive Saturday evening KO in the Premier League. Read Opta on Chelsea-Liverpool here, featuring an 8/19.00 tip
Rain needs to keep coming for Sparks Fly
A winner on heavy, Sparks Fly's trainer and owner will be singing and dancing with the predicted deluge.
She was 60/161.00 initially on the Sportsbook and presumably with the forecast on the grim side, her price has contracted into 33/134.00.
Sparks Fly was an unlucky third in the Princess Elizabeth at Epsom at the Derby meeting and was unlucky there as was short of room but was six lengths behind Fallen Angel in the recent Matron Stakes in Ireland.
Pace angles
There should be pace on here as Spiritual always makes the running, although she is back up to 1m from 7f last time in soft at Doncaster, and she will face competition for the lead as Blue Bolt made the running to score at Sandown in the Coral Distaff.
Both Blue Bolt and Lady Of Spain came from midfield at Sandown although the latter was previously ridden prominently on the All-Weather.
The map for Saturday:
Front runners: Spiritual, Blue Bolt, Sparks Fly
Prominent racers: Lady Of Spain, Saqqara Sands, Sparks Fly, Atsila, Cathedral,
Midfield racers: Cinderella's Dream, Atsila,
Hold up: Cinderella's Dream, Atsila,
Trainer form and Newmarket stats for yards
Charlie Appleby: 8-27 last two weeks at 30%, Newmarket this term 18-53 at 33%.
Karl Burke: 11-53 last two weeks at 21%, Newmarket this term 2-16 at 12.5%.
Roger Varian: 6-28 last two weeks at 21%, Newmarket this term 1-11 at 9%.
John and Thady Gosden: 8-40 at 20% last two weeks, Newmarket this term 6-45 at 13%.
Andrew Balding: 13-58 last two weeks at 22%, Newmarket this term 10-41 at 21%.
Ralph Beckett: 10-45 last two weeks at 22%, Newmarket this term 2-20 at 10%.
Hugo Palmer: 2-34 last two weeks at 6%, Newmarket last five season 10-85 at 12%. #
Donnacha O'Brien: 1-18 last two weeks at 6%.
Alan Dudman's 1-2-3 Verdict
Fallen Angel will have pace to run at and should be handy judged on her run in Ireland. Although the startling feature of that with how many of the field were under pressure and being rousted along on entering the straight.
I think that's the key piece of form here and I liked the way Atsila stayed on too from the rear.
It's hard to see beyond Fallen Angel as the ground will suit her far more than Cinderella's Dream and with form over 1m2f last term on soft in France, the ground should not be a hindrance if going to soft or even heavy.
1) Fallen Angel
2) Blue Bolt
3) Atsila
Back Fallen Angel to Win 14:40 Newmarket
Racing... Only Bettor. Listen to the latest episode now.