Saturday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin says Star of India is genuine Derby contender

After the hokey-cokey with Eydon's running plans earlier this week - he was out when the Roger Varian music finally stopped on Wednesday - I had to re-assess the Derby afresh, which is no bad thing.

After all, all ante-post considerations didn't factor in the draw.

That basically entails re-watching race videos you have seen a dozen times - well, about three in truth - and looking for a betting angle that somehow passed you by. Not easy.

Desert Crown is worthy Derby favourite

The problem most will have is that the favourite Desert Crown impresses you the more often you witness him breeze through the Dante and put the 112-rated Royal Patronage to bed with contemptuous ease, when genuinely thought to need the run. Let no-one say Desert Crown isn't a very worthy favourite at around the 15/8 mark on the Exchange.

He is. The chunk that he takes out of the market is justified.

As is pretty much the case with the more battle-hardened Stone Age at around 6/1 on the Exchange. He was very professional from the front at Leopardstown last time, and you could easily see him winning this once in every seven runnings.

That leaves the scope for a bet elsewhere somewhat limited, but you don't need me running through every horse and saying: "I can see him, but no bet."

Star of India is small stakes bet

The one that I feel has most to offer at the current prices is Star Of India at 18.017/1 or bigger.

I would stress that he will be my smallest bet of the two-day Epsom meeting, though.

The first thing I should point out is the prospect of rain through Saturday. It is nowhere near as biblical as one site predicted on Wednesday morning - a whopping 32mm - but it looks like some will land.

How much, and when, is anyone's guess though, and I will proceed on the basis of no-excuses good ground, maybe with a side order of ease. That makes it easier, anyway.

Star Of India hasn't raced on anything deeper than good to soft, and it was that going when he announced himself as a genuine Derby candidate when winning the Dee Stakes.

The bare form of that certainly needs improving on to a significant degree but I think he is copper-bottomed to improve for the 1m4f trip on the evidence of Chester. He is a very lazy sort but you just saw the penny dropping last time, and he was coming home really strongly there.

His draw in 15 is hardly ideal and he could have trouble holding his position, but I just think there is a lot more in his locker after just the four starts. I expect him to be arriving wide, late and hopefully handsome.

The 14s with the Betfair Sportsbook, paying four places, is a decent alternative but I am happy to play win-only in such a wide-open race.

Feeling confident about Nolton Cross

I will take the rest of the Epsom card in chronological order, and Nolton Cross is well worth a poke in the 1m2f handicap at 14:00.

Back him at 8/1 each way, three places, each way with the Sportsbook. I would still be backing him at 7/1, so there is scope for a bet if he shortens.

If the appearance of Orbaan in the last at Epsom on Friday unnerved me, then the presence of Mr Big Stuff presented me with a big dilemma here.

I really don't know what happened to him at Newbury last time, as I still haven't seen a head-on, but from the side angle it looked like Hollie Doyle had racing room on a couple of occasions, and the horse just didn't take the gaps.

Of course, it was clearly a huge eye-catching run all the same - the handicapper has put him up 1lb for being beaten over three lengths into fifth there which tells the story - but Epsom will find out any kinks in the horse, and his 5lb claimer could have a job on him from stall 13, too.

More importantly he hasn't been missed in the market, predictably enough, at 5/1.

I may have a tiny bet on Mr Big Stuff to ensure I don't lose on the race if he wins, but Nolton Cross is the premier punt. And a pretty confident one, too.

I'd say Harry Davies would like the ride again at Sandown as he got hemmed in on the rail at a vital point there, and the way he was coming back at War Horse (who re-opposes here, as does the fourth, Grenoble, in first-time cheekpieces) strongly suggests he would have gone close to winning with a clear run.

The handicapper has left him on the same mark, and it is not hard to see Silvestre De Sousa bouncing him out from the front from stall four to try to make all here.

He went forward at Sandown, made all at Wolverhampton last season, and you have to think this colt has a lot more to give after just the four starts.

When you go back and look at his all-weather form, it is very strong in the context of a horse rated 80. The horse he beat off levels at Wolverhampton has won twice since (and is currently rated 85), and he had Eydon in behind when second at Newcastle previously.

I am confident of a big run, as you may have guessed. As I said earlier, I am happy to back him at 7/1+, if truth be told. Hugo Palmer has booked Davies for his other runner Box To Box, and he wouldn't be without a chance either.

The Group 3 Princess Elizabeth Stakes at 14:35 is normally the close-knit race I swerve and I am not going to deviate from that path, for all I wouldn't be laying Potapova at bigger than 7/2 myself.

The form of her slightly unfortunate second at Kempton last time has been franked by subsequent black-type wins from the third and fourth, but I can just about resist her at the price. She wouldn't have the most solid of profiles, and significant rain would worry you for her. She would be verging on a bet at 4s though, and I may play if she hits that mark.

The Diomed Stakes at 15:10 is very similar to the proceeding race and it gets similar "no bet" treatment .

It looks a nasty little contest and I am little surprised that Modern News is as short as he is, for all he has been impressive on his last two starts. However, I couldn't find a tempting alternative.

Stone of Destiny could solve puzzle

If you wanted a proper puzzle, then let me introduce you to the 20 runner 5f Dash at 15:45.

Now, you wouldn't find any bigger lover of impossible handicaps than me but initially I was not inclined to throw a dart at this race either.

I imagine plenty will be drawn to Stone Of Destiny as Andrew Balding has somehow got him here on a mark of just 92, some 10lb lower then when an unlucky third (along with about a dozen others probably) , despite running perfectly well in defeat at Newmarket and Goodwood on his last two starts.

He probably has a decent draw in 18 and, if the rain keeps to a minimum on Saturday, then he has a favourite's chance.

I know this race has more the look of dodgems than a straight dash but price is all, and the Sportsbook's 10/1 has lured me in. I wasn't expecting that big an offer, even if the opening 10s would have been even nicer.

But, given the prospect of trouble in running and a guess-up as how much rain we may get at this stage (it was good to soft when he was third last year, but he wouldn't want it any worse than that), I am going to back him win-only instead of each-way, five places.

I also had a look at the two non-ITV handicaps at the end of the card though, and nothing stood out.

Well, that is not strictly true as the course form of Solent Gateway makes him an obvious bet in the 1m4f handicap at 17:15, with 5lb claimer Harry Davies on board, and stepping down in trip from a rather ambitious non-staying tilt over 2m2f a Chester last time.

However, I'd fear a fair few in here - notably Boss Power - and I feel no need to force a bet away from the ITV cameras.

Just the three bets then, but I make no apologies for being selective.

Have a great Derby day.

Profit and Loss (from March 26)

Staked: 101

Returns: 177.9pts

P/L: +76.9

Previous (April 14 2021 to March 25 2022)

P/L: + 183.1