Saturday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin goes two-handed in the International Stakes at Ascot

I wimped out of tipping Mishriff at 9/2 on Monday, mainly due to stamina concerns if any thunderstorms later in the week landed with any vengeance.

However, no rain of any note has materialized - the course got 3mm overnight on Wednesday, albeit on top of the watering throughout the week, with maybe showers through Friday - so the question now is do I row in with the horse at a reduced price at around 7/2 on the exchange, with all six five-day entries standing their ground?

In short, the answer is no.

I think he clearly has the best form claims courtesy of his Juddmonte win last season, he has a Group 1 1m4f Dubai victory on his dance card, and he should have won the Eclipse last time.

But, for all that and the favourable quick ground, I am still concerned about his stamina here in a strongly-run race - though that is no given, despite the presence of forward-goers Broome and Pyledriver - and he was certainly outgunned late on by Adayar when second in this race last season.

And, of course, the 3yos, Irish Derby winner Westover and Oaks runner-up Emily Upjohn, have the capability to come up to his level at these weights, without factoring in the Arc winner Torquator Tasso (actually rated the same horse as Mishriff) rocking up, too.

So you can add watch without a bet, to the quality if not quantity cliché alert.

Mishriff would still be my token choice if pushed - and he is a bet for fellow BB tipster Kevin Blake - and the Arc winner remains overpriced on the exchange - so the German horse really should be the bet here at 12/1 (the general fixed-odds 14s was taken on Thursday afternoon, and he is now 9s with the Sportsbook) if I was staying true to my principles - but I am not getting involved. It's a very tough race to call.

Cuban Mistress appeals

I thought Lezoo should have got the race in the stewards' room when a hampered ½-length second to Mawz in the Group 2 Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes last time - her jockey didn't, which didn't help her chances one iota - and she will take plenty of whacking in the Ascot opener at 13:50.

She has the best form and time credentials but the issue, as ever, is that never in a million years was she going to be missed in the market - though, to be honest, I expected a tad shorter than 7/4 (bigger on exchange, too) - and dangers abound when you take on once-raced opposition, with the scope for marked improvement, and we have four unbeaten fillies in here, including Glenlaurel, visually very impressive at Thirsk.

As well as others.

The horse that Lezoo had 4½ lengths behind her when winning at Newmarket previously, Minnietonka, is clearly thought capable of better, too.

She went off the 7/4 favourite that day after scooting up by 7 lengths on her debut at Salisbury, but maybe she was not ideally positioned towards the near side of the track and the main action unfolded away from her. That well-watered July course often has draw and pace biases.

The more exposed/experienced Cuban Mistress could be the each-way angle here at 20/1 - she was giving Lezoo 6lb when beaten a length by the debutante at Bath, and her second to Rocket Rodney at Sandown last time reads well - but whether she will be as effective over 6f is a question mark.

In summary, another no bet.

Backing Novemba?

There is plenty of potential pace on in the 1m Group 3 Fillies And Mares Group 3 at 14:25 - Novemba, Oscula and Snooze N You Lose, and there are maybe another three prominent racers in the field - so I imagine plenty will be looking for a hold-up horse to sweep up late doors.

Zanbag and Jumbly are the obvious candidates there if you head down that path - they are 2/1 and 7/2 respectively with the Sportsbook - but, again, as 105-rated 3yos, they have been well found in the market. And then some.

For all she will be pestered on the lead - and all her best form has come with forcing tactics, so I imagine they will keep up the point-and-shoot tactics come what may - Novemba is probably the pick for me at 9/2+ on the exchange, but not enough to stick her up here in what could be a nasty, tactical little race.

The sight of Orbaan being declared for the 7f handicap at 15:00 will send shivers down the spines of hundreds of punters, as he is the one of the premier cliff horses in the country.

However, the problem here is he actually a fair price at 28/1 and bigger, though thankfully he is drawn in one, so surely we can safely desert him?

Mind you, he has some fancied horses around him to drag him into the race, so maybe the contest could develop on the far side for once.

Recent evidence suggests not though, and that is why I was initially leaning away from my pre-draw fancy Bless Him in three, and Ropey Guest in seven.

But I am going to trust in the Bunbury Cup form and dutch that pair win-only at 14.013/1 and 21.020/1, or bigger on the exchange.

I really should hammer home how big a factor the draw could play here again, though. I don't see a lot of guaranteed pace in here at all - King Zain in 21 and Lion Tower in 18 are possibles - and that is why I greatly fear the exchange 9/1 chance Air To Air in 20.

The lack of pace drawn low is clearly a headache then, and I just wonder whether they will contemplate a switch of style with Tammani from stall four. He has been a hold-up performer for his current trainer but his two best efforts when with William Haggas came from forcing rides.

I hope they do, anyway.

Bless Him obviously loves Ascot and he is well-in here under his penalty for that smooth Bunbury Cup win last time - Burnt Sugar did the Newmarket-Ascot handicap double in 2018 - and don't underestimate just how well Ropey Guest ran there in second, considering he came from stall 17 and the first five home were housed 3-17-5-6-2.

I appreciate he has been beaten off this kind of mark all season but he has run some belters in the hottest of handicaps and Callum Hutchinson takes off 5lb after doing a fine job at Newmarket last time, his first ride on the horse.

Thegreatestshowman may be 'Nunthorpe' value

York have been "watering overnight to replace moisture lost each day" but the forecast suggests we are looking at good to firm, though it remains to be seen how substantial the Friday showers are.

I am not sure who approved the idea of the "Jump Jockeys Nunthorpe" at 14:05 - not least because it is a 0-80 handicap - but I doubt it was a punter who did, though there may be a charity element that I am not aware of.

Sprint handicaps are an acquired taste at the best of times, but throw in the NH gimmicky element and 20 runners, and it becomes a very questionable, and unattractive, betting heat.

I was actually amazed to discover this is the fifth running of the race, so it must have passed me by until now. Or my memory is getting seriously impaired as I embark upon my 54^th year on the planet.

For what it is worth Tom Scudamore has won two of the four runnings, as has trainer Paul Midgley. Scudamore is on Val De Travers here, and Midgley is mob-handed with five runners.

If you ignore the jockeys (which I tend to do anyway), then maybe Thegreatestshowman is of most interest at 25/1+ - he was fifth in this race last year off a 5lb higher mark under today's rider but you have probably already guessed that I have no desire to part with any cash here.

Dubai tempts but price doesn't

Having put up Dubai Honour at 25s ante-post for the Eclipse, I should be struggling to see past him in the Group 2 at 15:15.

But he missed the Sandown race (and an alternative engagement in France that weekend, too) because of the quick ground, so I am bit surprised to see him rocking up here if that is their mindset.

I suppose the reasoning must be that they need to start his season off sooner rather than later - he hasn't raced since a non-staying effort over 1m4f in Dubai in March - and the decent weather looks set fair across Europe for a while.

Or maybe they simply looked at his two runs on good to firm ground, and decided he does go perfectly well on fast ground. They were career-bests at the time, after all. Any rain is welcome, clearly.

He is a Group 1 performer - he was very unlucky not to win the Hong Kong Cup in December - and is unpenalised for his Group 2 win, and he is over his best trip, and I do think he will be very hard to beat if anything close to being fully tuned up.

This isn't a cake-walk by any means with the impressive Wolferton victor Dubai Future in opposition, not to mention the Hampton Court winner Claymore (he opened up at 11/10 but he is, unsurprisingly on the drift) and Sir Busker, too.

I was very surprised to see the Sportsbook originally put Dubai Honour in here at 9/4 but that was soon trimmed in to 2/1, and then 9/5, and that will be under pressure soon as he is currently 2.767/4 on the exchange.

I was also set to tip him as I thought he should be favourite, but the problem is he virtually is now and maybe he will be a touch ring-rusty, hence the decision to start him off in this Group 2 rather than in the top tier.

In summary: a reluctant no bet with the price running away from me.

Fifth

The only potential betting race on the York ITV card, then, was the 6f handicap at 14:40, and we all know sprint handicaps are racing's version of "whose turn it is anyway?"

I really am trying to steer away from these lotteries unless there is a stand-out at the prices, and Venturous nearly lured me in.

You can maybe say he is better over 5f but he won this race last season at 33/1 off a 2lb higher mark by a short-head from Music Society, whore-opposes here, and he comes into this race having been eased in the weights for two very solid runs of late, including when sixth at Ascot a fortnight ago.

He has caught the eye under Tom Queally in both of those races, travelling smoothly under hold-up rides and meeting some trouble in running, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Oisin Orr perhaps sit a bit handier here from his midfield draw and ride him with a bit more gusto late doors.

He is a 9yo but he can surely be competitive off a mark of just 93, though I was hoping for a bit bigger than the Sportsbook's 10/1, so I will sit this one out, too

And it is a sprint handicap, after all. I make no apologies for being selective, especially with the five-day Glorious Goodwood around the corner.

Be lucky. Back on Sunday night or Monday morning.

Recommended Bets

Bless Him at 14.013/1 or bigger in 15:00 at Ascot

Ropey Guest at 21.020/1 or bigger 15:00 at Ascot