Saturday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin believes course winner can prevail at a big price

Saturday is more like it on the ITV front.

A 15-runner 2000 Guineas, handicaps galore, and a minimum each-way betting of 1,2,3 on five of the six races, an attractive win-only bet in the other contest (well, it was when I started writing this piece , so I hope the price holds before I publish).

Luvvly Jubbly.

We have to start with the Classic. The problem is that I think Native Trail is fully deserving of his price of around 11/10 on the exchange.

It could well be that trouble in running is the only way the layers will get him beaten - he takes a while to hit top gear, so if he is checked in his run, it is possible the race may well have developed away from him - but that is a very loose hope.

We discussed this race on the Racing Only Bettor podcast on Thursday, and I suggested that, with the Sportsbook paying four places, Eydon at 33s and Point Lonsdale at 14s were the possible each-way plays against him but they have since been clipped into 18s and 12s respectively.

A Royal bet worth backing

The latter is still backable at 12/1, as the step up to 1m and quick ground is expected to bring him forward a good deal, but I had another fresh look at the race on Friday morning - unfortunately, the Without Favourite market wasn't up at the time of filing - and realised I totally missed one first time around.

Back Royal Patronage at 50.049/1 win-only or bigger on the exchange - he is 60.059/1 at the current time - and 33/1 each way, four places, with the Betfair Sportsbook.

He went off at 7/1 when he was last of eight behind Luxembourg in the Vertem Futurity on his final start at two, but I imagine the soft ground wasn't ideal there (he also disappointed on that ground on his debut), and in any case he was struck into in the race itself, so we can put a line through that run.

Go back and look at his earlier victories, and he looks considerably overpriced. A 2 ¼-length winner of the Acomb, he beat Coroebus a head over course and distance on quick ground in a good time in the Royal Lodge, and the difference in prices between those two now is hard to fathom.

Royal Patronage will get a lot further in time, so expect another aggressive ride.

Another big price catches the eye

The Sportsbook are paying six places in the 6f sprint handicap at 13:50, but I am inclined to play Final Song win-only on the exchange at 22.021/1 or bigger, as it is a desperately deep and competitive race.

I bet Saeed bin Suroor (two winners of late) has been looking on enviously as Charlie Appleby has farmed the early-season races and I reckon he will be seeking to make his own mark this weekend - especially if his boss really is going to show his face in Newmarket - and Final Song is fairly handicapped on 100 to go close here.

She did nothing in a Group 3 at Meydan last month but that was her first start in 239 days, and little over a year ago this mare was being beaten just ½ length in the Al Quoz sprint.

She'd take a fair bit of whacking if in that form, she has form at this track - she finished fourth in Love's Guineas in 2020 - and quick ground suits her well.

If you want to play her each way at 20s, six places, I obviously couldn't put you off.

Along with plenty of others I suspect, I really wanted to be with the progressive Twilight Calls in the Palace House Stakes at 15:00, but the bookmakers have seen us coming, and then some, by pricing him up at just 3/1, and a similar price on the exchange.

Don't get me wrong, he may well win this comfortably, as he reminds me of the stable's Twilight Son, who won off a mark of 83 at this meeting before winning the Group 1 Diamond Jubilee 13 months later, but he still has a lot of prove as he shifts up to Group 3 company and 3/1 is no way near adequate compensation for the doubts.

I will take a chance on Anythingtoday at 15.014/1 or bigger in the 14:25. He is a touch bigger at the time of writing and he is also available at 14/1 with the Betfair Sportsbook if you want to back him there.

He is hard to catch right but he won twice last summer and he comes here on the back of an excellent fourth on the all-weather last month.

He is 1lb well-in on that run, he has good course form (he finished seventh in the 2020 Cambridgeshire off a 6lb higher mark in 2020) and the quick ground is no issue. I fear Movin Time most.

Over to Thirsk and back with bin Suroor in their Hunt Cup, as I am with Dubai Love at 12.011/1 or bigger in the 14:05. The general 10s in the marketplace is obviously fine.

The trainer is 20 from 100 with initial cheekpieces is recent years, so it is certainly no negative to see Dubai Love in that headgear for the first time, and she comes here after a fair spell in Dubai recently.

She didn't excel on her last two starts, but she was only beaten a length in a Group 2 (and I appreciate they are weak black type races there) in February and that makes her mark of 98 very workable.

She is also 3lb lower than when a 1 ½-length third in the Sandringham at Royal Ascot, a performance that came straight on the back of a Meydan campaign, too.

Possibly, she may be better with more dig but good ground is fine and I am happy to take my chance at a double-figure price.

A rare bet on a favourite...

Regular readers will know I rarely tip at short prices, and I have a moderate record when I do, but I can't let Primo Bacio pass by at 15/8 with the Betfair Sportsbook in the 14:40 at Goodwood. I was expecting nearer evens.

I appreciate she meets some unexposed fillies in here, but the simple fact is that she is unpenalized in this Listed race and has 8lb and more in hand of the opposition on official figures.

A small field and no pace are worries, and this is her comeback run as well, but if she reproduces her Listed win at York last season, she will eat these up and spit them out.

Granted, she didn't kick on as expected after York, but she was beaten only 1 ½ lengths in the Falmouth and 2 lengths in the Prix Rothschild afterwards - both Group 1 races - and hopefully Ed Walker was on the money when describing her as in "great nick" in his Weekender column on Wednesday.

My betting balance hopes you were not telling porkies, Edward...