I am not sure how much water they have put on at Newbury - it would be nice if they told us, and in fact it should be mandatory - for it to be called good ground, but that is the official going description, as it is at Market Rasen, where they have applied 10mm every day this week.
I am going to work on the basis of quick ground though, right or wrong, at Newbury - check out the times through racing on Friday though, as they could have easily over-watered - as it will be a case of a scorched earth policy through Saturday with the forecast temperatures.
Withdrawals give Cadillac good chance if he runs
The watering has at least ensured field sizes for the ITV contests have largely held up from the five-day stage, with the exception of Newbury's 1m2f Listed race at 13:50, in which the ante-post favourite, Missed The Cut, is a surprising no-show.
In fact, it is bad news for ante-post favourites in the first three ITV races as Inchicore and Sense Of Duty haven't rocked up, either.
Missed The Cut's main market rival in the ante-post betting, Cadillac, has been declared though, despite his trainer saying he was worried about the drying conditions and that his horse had an alternative engagement in France next week.
So I imagine they will be monitoring the ground for that one.
He clearly has a very strong chance though, despite carrying a 3lb penalty, as he ran a stormer for new connections at Royal Ascot on good to firm ground - he was bought for a chunky £500,000 at the Goffs London sales a day before the meeting - and he deserves to head the market.
Whether he should be quite as short as he is though (just 11/8 with the Sportsbook) is open to question, as he has nothing in hand of his rivals at these weights - in fact, three of his four rivals have superior form claims according to official marks, and the same chance as the other, Finest Sound - and it is such a trappy race.
It looks likely that Tasman Bay will lead - I wonder how Sir Mark Todd feels about the new whip rules? - but he comes here off a poor return effort and I just wonder whether he wants easy ground.
This has all the hallmarks of a race in which I think Cadillac is the most likely winner, but it is an easy no bet at the prices for me.
Dreamer and Doyle can fire again
The temptation to side with horses that you know well is probably not the wisest tipping stance , but Rainbow Dreamer does have a lot going for him in the 2m handicap at 14:21, especially as he was not ridden to best advantage last time.
Admittedly he was a bit too keen for his own good at Newcastle last time but I think he got a poor ride, making a bold move on the outside at halfway and then being sent on too early in the straight.
Regular pilot Hollie Doyle (she has been on board for five of his last seven wins) is back on board here and I suspect she will give him a more patient ride.
The horse is down to a mark of just 91 on turf now, he has a record of 214 on good to firm ground (and the fourth was in an 18-runner Ascot Stakes), and he is a course winner.
This is his first run on grass for a while, but that does not overly-concern me.
Back him win-only at 10.09/1 or bigger on the Exchange. He is also 9s with the Sportsbook if you want to back him there.
I was also going to put up Auriferous as he looks very solid, but the problem is he has gone from 11s to 7s with the Sportsbook (I did back him at 10s on Thursday afternoon) and the juice has been squeezed out of his price.
And you have to wary of others in here, most obviously Going Gone and Withhold, winner of this race in 2019 and third last year and who could get the run of the race from the front, so I will rely on Rainbow Dreamer.
In the Group 3 Hackwood Stakes at 14:56, Happy Romance won this race last yeas after a 14-day break but she has to do it after just a week's rest this time after running in the July Cup, so that is an obvious concern.
But, other than that, she has a lot going for her.
She has won twice here (she also won the Weatherbys Super Sprint on this card in 2020, she has plenty of fast-ground form, she has run well in Group 1s in the past, and her effort at Newmarket last week can be upgraded given she raced from stall one in a race dominated by high numbers.
I was all set to tip her at 4/1 each-way, four places (all the 9/2 went on Friday morning), but, having slept on it, I am going to resist. This is a deep race - you can give plenty a chance on the figures - and that quick turnaround is gnawing away at me.
If she hits 5/1 and bigger on the fixed-odds front, I may take my chances though, to small stakes.
I was also set to recommend each way bet on Maria Branwell at 11/4, four places, in the Super Sprint at 15:30 - as I said on the Racing Only Bettor Pod on Thursday night, that was a big price and I have no issue at playing win and place at these kind of prices - but her odds have been trimmed into 9/4.
That could still be a touch on the generous side given she will take a lot of whacking if reproducing her Queen Mary third - that gives her an outstanding chance on the clock, too - and all the 3s and 11/4 and 5/2 in the marketplace disappeared on Friday morning.
I can just about let her go untouched at 9/4, though.
However, if Happy Romance and Maria Branwell drift out a bit, I may back them in an each-way double, both paying four places.
Hold fire on Rasen pair
Romain De Senam has conditions in his favour and he is rated 7lb lower over hurdles as he reverts from chasing in the 14:06 at Market Rasen, so I was half-interested in him at around 8/1 on the exchange.
But he has run poorly on his last two starts when tried in cheekpieces (which are retained here) and I am worried they may try to go from the front again, which would be a mistake with so much opposition for the lead in here.
The Summer Hurdle at 14:41 is very competitive but Fergal O'Brien has such a brilliant record with new recruits to his yard that Wolf Prince has to be of interest.
He may be 6lb higher than his Irish mark but he had Grade 1 form for Gavin Cromwell in 2020 and the superb O'Brien could easily coax him back to that level.
However, this is a very deep race, and some of these winning, in-form improvers could still be well ahead of their revised marks, so once again I will hold fire.
Back Francky to step up to the Plate
The 7/1 with the Betfair Sportsbook on Thursday night may have gone (he is now 5s, somewhat annoyingly) but I am going suggest a win-only bet on Francky Du Berlais at 7.06/1 or bigger in the Summer Plate at 15:14.
The case for him is hardly original, but it is very straightforward and hopefully quite compelling.
He has been running well over 3m and upwards of late but I think he is even better over shorter in strongly-run races and this test on decent ground (it could well be good given how much they have been watering) should suit him ideally.
It was last season, anyway. He arrives here just 2lb higher than when winning this race by 7 ½ lengths last year and Peter Bowen has won with two of his last three runners. He looks very solid.
The opening 1/2 about Emily Upjohn has been snapped up and she is into 2/5 for the Irish Oaks at 15:45 t the Curragh.
I have no argument with that assessment - she really should win - but I will be interested to see what price Show Of Stars is when the Sportsbook go up with their Without Favourite market.
Paddy Twomey has an unbelievable strike rate of 36 per cent this season and his filly shaped as though this trip would suit when a staying-on fifth in the Salsabil over 1m2f earlier in the campaign.
She has been tried at shorter since, but the step up to 1m4f could well suit judged on the distaff side of her pedigree.
She is only rated 98, which tells you what a job she has on here, but the first-time cheekpieces is another angle into her chance (her half-brother won in them) and Twomey, who is very selective (22 winners from just 61 runners this season), wouldn't be firing a bullet here unless he thought Show Of Stars had a squeak of sorts.
And, outside of the favourite, this looks anything but a Classic.
Any 16s or bigger in the Without Market, and I'd be a small backer, so that's my guide price.
Profit and Loss (from March 26)
Staked: 171
Returns: 212.6pts
P/L: +41.6
Previous (April 14 2021 to March 25 2022)
P/L: + 183.1