Saturday Racing Tips: 14/1 Good Look Charm is the best of Tony Calvin's five bets

• 14/115.00 Good Look Charm is in form of her life

• 5/16.00 and 16/117.00 bets in the Edinburgh National

• Watch Coaching Carter Episode 2

With 10 ITV races to go at on Saturday, and other big pots on RTE at the Dublin Racing Festival, I am going to be brief (er) on the contests on which I don't have a strong betting opinion, as otherwise it will take an age to read this.

It will actually still take a few minutes - you have to make a full case, after all - but I'll be as succinct as possible when and where the situation allows.

No jokes at the back please.

The going at Sandown, Musselburgh and Leopardstown

Here is the going at the three ITV tracks. It is pretty much set to be dry everywhere from now on (though Leopardstown may have 2mm or so in the next 48 hours).

It is soft, good to soft, on the Sandown hurdles track and good to soft, good in places, on the chase circuit. It is good to soft, soft in places, at Musselburgh; and at Leopardstown it is soft over hurdles, and yielding to soft over fences.

I'll crack on in chronological order, starting in the south east of England.

Sandown 13:25 - No bet

Earlier in the week, I nearly had a swing at 25s on Mumford's Magic in the 2m4f handicap hurdle at 13:25, and he is still that price with the Sportsbook with five fewer runners to contend with.

He didn't stay 3m1f at Huntingdon last time and he is fairly handicapped on his earlier neck second off levels over 2m4f at Hexham, though that was a slow-motion race on heavy ground.

The winner is now rated 121 after following up at Kelso, and Mumford's Magic can race off 110 here. I can just about let him go untipped here though, as this is a day where you have to guard against having too many bets.

He is the punt in the race if you want a tickle, though.

Sandown 14:00 - No bet

It was disappointing to see the 1m7f99yd handicap chase at 14:00 cut up from 12 to just five at the overnight stage, and surely that leaves the door open to Saint Segal gaining a belated victory.

As big as 4s when I looked at the race on Tuesday, he is now just 2/13.00 and that isn't surprising given the reduced field.

He left the distinct impression that a bolder ride would have seen him beat First Flow off this mark at Lingfield last time, having previously been set to beat Boothill when falling at the last at Ascot (he hit 1.5 in running and was raised 3lb).

I don't play and tip at his kind of price though, for all I'd probably only offer half-a-point less if you wanted to back him with me.

The 10/111.00 outsider Red Rookie is the overpriced one as the step down to 2m on decent ground will suit, as will the pace set-up (plenty of it in here), and he is down to a mark of just 134.

But he obviously has an issue with his wind, and the first-time cheekpieces are an unknown. Besides, the presence of Saint Segal means this is a no-bet race for me, as I do think he will take a fair bit of whacking.

Sandown 14:35 - No bet

We lost Corbetts Cross and Trelawne at the overnight stage in the 100k Grade 1 Scilly Isles at 14:35, and I definitely don't have a punting angle into this contest.

This promises to be a very well-run race, which could suit the 11/26.50 poke Colonel Harry. He is probably the overpriced one in here, but the ground on the chase track could be too lively for him against what appear to be pacier sorts. A collapsing pace late on would make him a big player, though.

Sandown 15:10 - Antepost Bet Wonderwall

I went with Wonderwall at 33s win-only, ante-post, on Monday for the 2m7f+ handicap hurdle at 15:10 and he is now into just 14s with the Sportsbook.

I am not inclined to go in again at the current price, but he is likely to trade at 20s and bigger on the exchange on the day I'd have thought, which could make him of interest again.

I put him up for the Lanzarote at a big price last time (he was a fair late drifter out to a Betfair SP of 30.32) and I didn't get to find out whether that was a good move or not as he was brought down by a faller four out.

It was clearly too far from home to know if he would have played a hand in the finish, but he was going perfectly well at the time and obviously I still think he is a well-handicapped horse over hurdles off 128 given his back-form and some of his Flat ability in the summer of 2023.

Initially, I wasn't too sure he wants the stamina test that 2m7f89yd around here provides, and I still am not, to be truthful. Sandown's hurdles track is regularly brutal. Indeed the course warn on the BHA site that the ground is likely to ride dead after the recent dry spell.

Ominous perhaps.

However, he saw 2m5f out very well when beating City Chief at Doncaster under James Bowen as a novice back in 2022, and I expect a similarly patient ride here.

He was having his first run for Peter Bowen in the Lanzarote last time, and it is interesting that the trainer saddled Lord Napier to finish third in that Kempton handicap before he won this race for him by nine lengths on his following start.

As regards that stamina doubt, the drying ground has to be a plus (for all that warning on the BHA site), as is the fact that the trainer's son (James Bowen) gets on him again.

Is there is a bet elsewhere though?

Yes, very much so. Read on.

Sandown 15:10 - Back Good Look Charm

The weights went up 4lb at the overnight stage, which was especially good news for Good Look Charm, as she was that much out of the weights at the five-day stage, and Tanganyika, who was 2lb wrong.

I thought we would get a full field of 18 here, but only 15 rock up.

Ed Keeper has an obvious chance, and Dubrovnik Harry is well-handicapped off 124 but is becoming unreliable.

I kept on coming back to Good Look Charm. I know she is 16s in a few places (so do what you have to do) but the Sportsbook's 14/115.00 is very fair. Back her there or 15.014/1 or bigger on Exchange. The latter is the maybe way to go, for all there are four places on offer with the Sportsbook.

Basically, the mare is in the form of her life and I wouldn't be in a mad rush to lay her at 10s myself.

A winner on her reappearance at Wincanton, she then finished third over an extended 2m4f at Cheltenham in a race that is working out well (the winner and fifth won next time, and the second and fourth haven't been seen since) and then she looked ready for a step back up in trip when fourth in the Lanzarote last time.

I know her 3m2f second on heavy ground last season was nothing flash but the way she rallied over 2m5f at Kempton last time, after getting badly outpaced turning in, suggests this 2m7f+ trip will suit.

She is my bet of the day at the current prices.

Sandown 15:45 - Back Certainly Red

On Tuesday, I went with Certainly Red at 14/115.00 each-way, four places, for the 3m handicap chase at [15:45] and that is looking very good from a price-perspective, as only 10 of the 22 confirmed on Thursday morning.

The downside with him is that he comes here on the back of an underwhelming run at Newbury last time but he was in fair form prior to that, and, as a result of the latest below-par effort, he can race off a mark of 135 now on a track on which he has a pretty good record.

He won easily off this mark at Wincanton last February, and he has posted some of his better efforts at this course.

He had the speed to win over 2m4f here last January and he was racing from a mark of 142 when a fair seventh in the Bet365 Gold Cup here in April. He has form on testing ground but the dry forecast is a plus, as is the fact that there are five forward-goers in here to bring his stamina over further into play.

However, his current Sportsbook price of just 9/25.50 makes him unbackable there - they are ducking him completely and I'd want nearer the 8s that he is currently on offer at in six places on the Odds checker grid - so I won't go in again on the fixed-odds line.

However, he'd be a fresh bet if he is 6s or bigger on the exchange for me, though. In fact, I am going to suggest you back him there at 7.06/1 or bigger. That should be easily attainable. I'll settle at Betfair SP.

Musselburgh 13:40 - No bet

Up at Musselburgh, we are down from 12 to six for the novices' handicap chase at 13:40, with ante-post favourite Giovinco a surprising no-show.

Monmiral had three options this weekend and connections have decided to come here in the race named after his former stablemate Frodon, so it is perhaps fitting that Bryony Frost gets the ride. He is the most likely winner at 5/23.50 but he is hardly rock-solid, even down in grade.

I have no opinion here, so let's move on.

Musselburgh 14:15 - Back Peaches and Cream

I agree with the Sportsbook in their odds-compilers making Peaches And Cream their 5/16.00 favourite in the 3m7f+ Edinburgh National at 14:15. Of the eight Irish horses running in UK ITV races on Saturday, his mark over here is the closest to his Irish level.

He is only 1lb higher than his Irish mark and he shaped very well behind his stablemate (and the winner) Malina Girl over 3m3f+ at Cheltenham in November, even though his absence since then does maybe hint at an issue.

However, maybe they have just played the patient game in targeting this 52k-pot-to-the-winner. This is a horse with an 11-length win over 3m7f on his dance card, and he is only 7lb higher here.

He is a bet at 5/16.00 with the Sportsbook or 6.05/1 or bigger on the exchange - there is some 6/17.00 out there in the wider fixed-odds market - but I can't resist a win-only saver on Christopher Wood too.

Musselburgh 14:15 - Back Christopher Wood

His previous handlers will probably be amazed he is running over 3m7f76yd here and indeed Venetia Williams has only run him once beyond 2m5f, but in Queen V we trust and the horse certainly shaped okay over 2m5f at Carlisle on his reappearance.

He is clearly a win-only bet with the huge stamina doubt but the horse has course form figures of 112, he runs off his lowest-ever National Hunt mark of 129, and the expected drying ground will suit.

Have a very small bet on him at 16/117.00 with the Sportsbook, or 17.016/1 or bigger on the exchange.

Musselburgh 14:50 - Antepost bet Collingham

At the five-day stage, there were 22 in the Scottish County Handicap Hurdle at 14:50, for a maximum field on the day of 15, and we have got 13.

On Tuesday, I took a flier with Collingham each-way, four places, at 40/141.00 and I am obviously very happy enough with the position, without feeling over-confident. He is now generally a 16/117.00 chance in the marketplace, and 14/115.00 with the Sportsbook.

Admittedly, he has gone backwards since a fair reappearance here in November - in severe reverse in fact with a very poor run at Doncaster, while his slightly better effort at this course last time under a 7lb claimer (though he was getting 10lb on the day) also left a fair bit to be desired - but the upside is that he has dropped to a mark of just 119.

That is 2lb lower than when beating Parisencore by 1 ½ lengths in this very race last season - he is now 5lb better off with the admittedly in-form runner-up - and hopefully he has been sweetened up for a repeat bid after a mediocre run here on soft ground on New Year's Day.

It is due to be dry at the track now, and that will be in his favour, for all he has soft ground form here.

His best form has come at this track off higher marks on good to soft or better ground, but I won't press up now. Any 25s or bigger on the Exchange on the day (entirely possible) would be a fair, if speculative, play.

Sextant is obviously the one that could blow the handicap apart off 121 on his debut for Lucinda Russell, as he was rated 108 on the Flat when with Sir Michael Stoute. He may not have raced since September 2021 but no way would I offer him at the general 20s in the marketplace.

I'd also fight shy of laying Zanndabad, fancied for the Boodles last season before not getting in (though he ran very badly on the face of it last time, his Sportsbook quote of 10s could easily be too punchy).

Leopardstown 13:20 - Back Jetara

We have two races on ITV from the Dublin Racing Festival, though none of the three Grade 1s that open the card.

We only had five horses to play with at the four-day stage in the Irish Gold Cup at 15:35 and fortunately only Coko Beach has come out on Thursday.

I don't see how anyone could have a real beef with the prices in what looks a straight match. I know Fastorslow has beaten Galopin Des Champs in their last two meetings, but the latter is an entirely different beast judged on his victories in the Gold Cup and Savills. It is 4/91.44 plays 11/43.75.

Initially, I didn't have a strong betting opinion in the three other Grade 1s that open the card (live on RTE), though the juvenile hurdle at 13:50 looks a cracker.

Obviously, the absence of Gaelic Warrior in the Irish Arkle at 14:25 takes a fair bit of shine off that race; that would have been the set-to of the day, seeing him lock horns with Marine Nationale.

I was surprised to see Jetara - with Betfair ambassador Rachael Blackmore on board - open as big as 9/25.50 in a few places for the 2m6f78yd Grade 1 novices' hurdle at 13:20 though, as her win over 2m4f here last time is probably the strongest form on offer going into the race. And on the clock, too.

She gets the 7lb sex allowance, as well.

So the more I looked, the more I thought the Sportsbook's 4/15.00, or 5.04/1 or bigger on the Exchange, was worth taking for the mare to see off the charges of Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott in the meeting-opener.

We have a much healthier field, numbers-wise, in the 3m104yd handicap hurdle at 15:00 but, unfortunately, the Sportsbook aren't overly-eager to lay Fine Margin early doors by going 5/16.00 in a 24-runner handicap.

Mind you, the 7s and the 6s in the marketplace have been taken on Thursday and his price seems to be heading one way. In fact, any 11/26.50 has just been taken, too.

I doubt if Mullins has ever had a bigger drifter for him on debut (from a stable I had barely heard of as well), as he drifted from 14s to 22s on the show (and out to a Betfair SP of 28.027/1) before running a screamer to finish second in what looked a very strong Haydock handicap. He is rated 3lb higher in the UK.

But I can just about let a 5s poke pass me by in such big field races, for all he wouldn't be a horse I'd want to lay either.

If I see any fresh bets in the next 24 hours (I will see how Fine Margin goes in the exchange market one the liquidity arrives, though I suspect he could end up being silly-short, so maybe the 5s is generous) I will update them on this column, and flag any such additions on my X/Twitter feed on tony_calvin.

Good luck.

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