Alan Dudman's Big Race Verdict: Chase the Betfair Imperial Cup dream with 12/1 outsider

• Five places on the Sportsbook for Betfair Imperial Cup

• Hard task for last year's winner Go Dante and top weight Lump Sum

• Alan Dudman gives his Saturday verdict on a 12/113.00 each-way chance 

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Betfair Ambassador Paul Nicholls has a live chance of landing the 13:50 contest at Sandown today with Belliano, a horse who has finished first or second in all three of his career starts.

Totday you can back the horse to finish in the top six at the super-boosted prices of 1/12.00 (from 4/91.44). To take advantage, just click on the odds in the below bet banner to go directly to the pre-loaded betslip.

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Seventeen go to post for the Betfair Imperial Cup

The perfect pre-cursor for the Cheltenham Festival comes from Sandown on Saturday with the Betfair Imperial Cup and following such a dry week in the south, leaning towards horses with form on better going is the way to go.

My antepost selection from earlier in the week Tom Doniphon has skipped the race and will be a no-show but we've 17 still in, five places on the Sportsbook and a crack big weekend handicap.

Trends for Betfair Imperial Cup

We're far away from the Martin Pipe dominance of this race with the talkative old chap collecting six winners in the race from 1989, while his son David has landed it three times, although the last was in 2014, young David is without a runner, so is Hobbs, and King etc etc.

Times change and all that.

Go Dante, last year's winner is nine years of age and he snapped the trend for the five-year-olds with his victory 12 months ago as the younger age bracket had been successful in four times on the spin prior to 2024, and the five-year-olds proved red-hot from 2000 onwards with 11 wins.

Willie Mullins has a runner in Batman Girac, but I tend to avoid this type of horse sent over as they'll often be overbet and his price was trimmed from 7/18.00 into 13/27.50 on Friday morning. The last Irish winner was in 2022 with Surprise Package for Kildare trainer Peter Fahey.

Market movers from Friday for big race

King William Rufus and Sorceleur were both cut from 22/123.00 into 14/115.00 and 16/117.00 respectively on Friday, and the comments from Paul Nicholls on his exclusive Betfair blog went along the lines of this regarding Sorceleur:

"He's made decent progress over hurdles this season and just needed the run a little bit a week ago at Newbury where he took a blow before keeping on to finish third.

I'd like to think he has come on for that outing, is now 2lbs lower and has a nice tasty weight of 10st 1lb. He's an interesting contender in a hot handicap. Drying ground will help."

And I think we need to be looking at the drying ground as key.

Collins could have a major chance here with a place

Dealing with the five-year-olds, Wreckless Eric is one for Jonjo O'Neill and part of the Megsons' tranch of horses that all left Ben Pauling last year, a move that has hardly reaped any sort of reward and it's hard to fancy a Jonjo runner at the moment - as I know to my cost with Tellherthename last week, who was beaten after four hurdles and the stable are quiet with just two wins from their last 24 runners at 8%.

Batman Girac fell at the last at Leopardstown when three lengths down on his latest unlucky spin, and while he is at an unexposed age, he isn't progressive and has some hefty defeats in his time. I wouldn't be totally sure about the drying conditions either.

Sorceleur from the age group is consistent and clearly off a nice weight but he needs to convert these chances of late and his in-running trades in defeat from his last three outings include a 2.56/4 and 1.758/11.

We're Red And Blue, another Jonjo runner, is another off a featherweight and looks off an interesting mark of 121 judged on his 11L novice win at Kelso, but again, the stable form puts me off.

To Chase A Dream for Paul Collins looks a touch overpriced for me at 14/115.00 and 12/113.00 and appeals as an each-way bet with the five places.

He was upped in distance to 2m4f at Doncaster last time in a race where he was held up along with the winner Classic King, and the form looks a bit better now for all To Chase A Dream was six lengths behind, as Classic King has since performed with credit finishing third in a hot Ascot handicap behind Altobelli. While the official going was good to soft, it rode more like good on times and I don't think we should be discouraged by the potential turf description for Sandown this weekend.

The fact it was over 2m4f and he got a little outpaced should lend itself to a fast run 2m here as Lump Sum should be up with the speed, likewise Bo Zenith (who was in the same Altobelli race at Ascot) and Ohh Betty. Alafdil, King William Rufus and Sorceleur all like to be up there too, so it won't be a dawdle (he says).

Doncaster has opened up a few more avenues in terms of the ground as a fair bit of his form previously was on heavy and soft, but he won at Carlisle earlier this winter on good to soft and his six lengths win at the same track in the north east in December was a super performance with the way he breezed into it and jumped two out, with sectionals at the end of the race highlighting a stiff 2m to 2m1 to suit as he ran 16.08 in the 17th furlong - which was almost two seconds faster than the third.

He's consistent with three wins from nine and five seconds and as a six-year-old he is almost in with the age trends.

Lump Sum is a thoroughly likeable horse too as a Welsh Champion Hurdle winner with graded form in the bank and a second last time to the handicap "good thing" Joyeuse at Newbury, while his trainer Sam Thomas is flying the Welsh flag with his batch of Saturday wins - which means he is now over 500k in prize money this term.

But, and a big but, he's got a top weight and 147 and he could be vulnerable to something off a better mark and weight.

To Chase A Dream would be a massive win for his Cleveland trainer Paul Collins and it's good to see Brian Hughes coming down south, hopefully to claim a big scalp for the north - and that's from a southerner here.

Now read more tips and previews for Saturday here!