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Newmarket July Festival starts Thursday
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TC takes July Cup risk in search of reward
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20/121.00 means it has to be Lezoo
It was 25/1 bar four for the July Cup if you shopped around on Sunday morning - there were 18 in the race at this point, and we are now down to 14, having gained Khaadem but lost Mount Athos, Twilight Jet, Alpha Zulu, The Antarctic and Zoology - which suggested a worrying lack of depth for the 6f Group 1 sprint.
The fact that I was even looking at the contest on a Sunday morning is probably an even more worrying reflection of my life, but I console myself with the thought that early betting preparation is rarely wasted.
Not that convincing an observation, I grant you.
Anyway, Shaquille headed the Sportsbook's betting at 9/43.25, with Little Big Bear at 3/14.00, Azure Blue at 4/15.00 and Kinross at 13/27.50 .
And, then, if you took the best price available for the next three in the betting, you had 25/126.00 about Meditate (who was due to run in the Prix Jean Prat later in the day, so she should have been a million - or maybe not as we will come to), Art Power and The Antarctic.
It is not exactly a line-up that would stop you looking for an outsider to get stuck into, which is why the 80/181.00 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes winner Khaadem was supplemented for £36,000 on Monday, I guess, shaking up the market a little.
Anyway, ground housekeeping before I crack on.
Ground is hard to call
The going at Newmarket is currently good to firm and the welcome news is that there is an unsettled, mixed forecast, so hopefully they won't water (the course has a deservedly bad reputation when it comes to irrigation) and let nature dictate affairs.
There is no mention of watering on the BHA site at the moment.
Mind you, there isn't a lot of rain due - Tuesday looks the wettest day with around 12mm according to one site, but others say a fair bit less, and the rest of the week doesn't look that bad at the moment - so that may well change.
Keep 'em peeled, as the ground is very hard to call at this stage. Not ideal for punters.
Shaquille worthy favourite... just
Shaquille and Azure Blue are the improvers but neither set a dauntingly high bar in Group 1 terms, while Little Big Bear has clearly not run to anywhere near the level of his 124-rated juvenile best. Kinross was a touch underwhelming last time, even though it was his first run of the campaign.
Shaquille is favourite largely by dint of the manner in which he beat Little Big Bear 1 ¼ lengths at Ascot, rather than the actual bare form - the four horses that immediately followed them home at a close distance were rated between 104 and 107 - but his position in the betting is justified in terms of potential.
He is clearly an awkward sort with the odd quirk or two but he did remarkably well to win at Royal Ascot given he completely blew the start - those who immediately laid him at 80.079/1 in running were left feeling nauseous a little over a furlong later as he got back into the race on the bridle (or, I should say Eric Idle or Billy Idol, for the Cockernees out there) - and he is on a serious upward curve.
Oisin Murphy, on him at Ascot, is banned on Saturday, so the new jockey will have to be on their guard, whoever that is. He is in to 7/42.75 with the Betfair Sportsbook after a big drift on Little Big Bear in the last 30 minutes (out to 8.615/2 on Exchange).
There is little between him and Azure Blue, as this filly is on a five-timer.
Progressing from winning a handicap off 89 on the Rowley course last September to seeing off Highfield Princess in the Duke Of York, with stablemate and subsequent Irish Listed race winner Commanche Falls in third, is some rate of improvement.
I was going to say she'd be my marginal pick of the four at the front end of the market at 4/15.00, as Little Big Bear had to be considered a shade disappointing at Ascot given the start he was handed by Shaquille, but that was cut to 3/14.00 early on Monday afternoon, and then 11/43.75, and then I went back and had a look at Kinross' run at the Royal meeting.
I didn't see any pre-race antics but the in running comment says he raced partially shod, which I imagine wouldn't have been ideal, though trainer Ralph Beckett had apparently got prior permission for his horse to run as such.
In any event, Frankie Dettori was as meek as a lamb on him for the final furlong, so it could have been a case that the jockey being equally as knackered as the horse. This was the end of a long week on Saturday and the ageing Italian didn't have the most productive final day of the meeting.
Kinross' record commands respect
Half-joking aside, Kinross didn't run that badly on his first start since an unlucky ¾ length third from a wide draw in the Breeders' Cup Mile in early November, as a five-length seventh of 16 to shock winner Khaadem was respectable enough for a horse fairly weak in the betting (Betfair SP of 9.91 against an Industry SP of 7.0).
His body of work in 2022, which included a runaway Ascot Group 1 win from Run To Freedom in October, is a match for any of this field's efforts in 2023, so he has to be greatly respected.
It was thought he needed dig (and he probably does prefer it) but last season would appear to have dispelled that myth. He currently trades at 9/25.50 with the Sportsbook, and a point bigger on the Exchange, which I certainly would not lay.
Khaadem could be contender again
So what do we make of Khaadem's Ascot win at 80/181.00? Well, I was going to say it is easy to dismiss it as a fluke but it isn't really.
All the right horses followed him home - Sacred, Highfield Princess, Artorius - and the time was tidy. The handicapper has pegged him as running a career-best there, and has upped him to a mark of 117. That is the same rating as Shaquille's , with Kinross and Little Big Bear on 119.
So, you can see why connections have supplemented into a race in which he finished a three-length fourth in back in 2020. After all, it only cost them £36,000 and the first prize is £340,000, with obviously handsome place money on offer as well.
He won't have the services of Jamie Spencer again unless the jockey wins an appeal on Tuesday for the six-day suspension he got on Via Sistina at the Curragh earlier in the month. He is 10/111.00 with the Sportsbook, but currently trades at a fair punchier 15.529/2 on the Exchange.
The 25/126.00 poke Cold Case is interesting, although trainer Karl Burke says he probably won't run if firm is in the going description, and at least he is consistent in this regard.
He was obviously drawn out of it on officially good to firm ground at the track bias that played out at Haydock in May, and he has twice been a non-runner on that going too (though he was withdrawn with a self-cert in the Commonwealth Cup).
He isn't an ante-post bet for the above reason but he is no forlorn hope here clearly on his Ascot win in May.
Newmarket - Saturday 16:35: Back Lezoo
I had Lezoo down as my ante-post, each-way Royal Ascot bet of the week in the Commonwealth Cup and she was clearly a huge disappointment when beaten nine lengths by Shaquille.
A more charitable soul than myself, however, would point out that she had little chance in hindsight from her draw on the near side in 14 of 14. The first five home were housed in 4.2.7,8 and 6. Lezoo went off at 5/16.00 there.
Now, the jury is still out over whether she has trained on (the trainer and owner also have Kinross in here, so will they run them both?) but I have little doubt (make that none) that I would not lay her at 27.026/1 on the Exchange.
Another worry for her would be a lot of rain I guess, as she is unproven with cut (though she ran okay on soft when a non-stayer in the Guineas on her return). But I have to stay loyal to her at the price, even if she may not even run.
Ante-post betting is all about risk and reward, so I'll take the punt. Be aware of the possibility of a no-show, though.
Her Cheveley Park defeat of Meditate (surprisingly stands her ground after a modest 11th of 12 in the Prix Jean Prat on Sunday) and Mawj obviously reads very well. Lezoo is probably unfortunate not to be unbeaten on the July course, having been carried across the track by Mawz in the Duchess Of Cambridge at this meeting last year.
Group 1 winner Emaraaty Ana ran well as a 66/167.00 chance in this race last year, while Art Power finished an excellent fourth to Starman in the 2021 renewal, while a few are still keeping the faith that Royal Aclaim can fulfil the promise that saw her win her first three races in handsome style. I am not one of those.
That leaves us to mention Brad The Brief, who shaped okay on his return at Newcastle, and the slop monster Vadream at 33/134.00. Watch the latter's price contract with every drop of rain that falls, as the ground at these heavily-watered can change a lot for very little.
But it has to be Lezoo for me win-only at 20/121.00 - unfortunately the 25/126.00 went just as this column was about to go live -and I personally would be taking anything bigger than 7.06/1 about Kinross on the Exchange. He is currently 6.611/2. I can't put him up as a bet though, with the market in its infancy.
Good luck.
Read Daryl Carter's Tips: Sole Tuesday selection is a 15/2 Wolverhampton wager
Watch this week's Weighed-In podcast