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Sunday 4th October 15:05
Live on ITV Racing
Sportsbook with four places on ground far from autumn conditions
Four places up on the Sportsbook and 16 runners at the time of writing, like actors lined up besides the famous Pont Neuf.
Heavy ground horses need not apply bizarrely for this year with the going stick reading in Paris on Friday at 7.4 from 7.1 with a description good to soft good in places.
The regular missives from the wonderfully named Charles De Cordon at Paris Longchamp went as follows for Saturday: "After no racing for four weeks, the rail will be positioned at 15 metres on the final straight and 8 metres throughout the remainder of the track."
"The rail will be moved back to zero (0 metres).
"On this day, there will be a 6m Cut-away at 450m from the winning post for Sunday," said France Galop.
Daryz housed in a perfect position
Daryz, the current Arc champion bids to become the first colt to defend his title successfully since 1978 and he's been handed a great draw in five.
Eventually anyway we saw his draw, as the positions were shrouded in secrecy until late Thursday evening and announced in a glitzy bash with all the reverence of someone opening up the ark of the covenant.
It's certainly a great spot for Daryz, as last year he came from stall two with the first four home drawn 2, 1, 3, 5 and he could be the shortest price favourite since "the greatest" Sea The Stars in 2009. But of course, no one can touch STS.
He's had a near perfect run-up to this race with victories in the d'Ispahan, Ganay and Prix Foy. The one blip was the third at Ascot in the Prince Of Wales's Stakes on ground that was a bit lively.
At 7/42.75 he's a perfectly fine favourite and price, and who knows, it'll be going some to see him at 6/42.50.
Like an old jukebox that produces the same tune when the buttons are pressed, Daryz produces that tune at Longchamp with his seven from eight record here, but only four horses in history have won it twice and Alleged being the last in 1978.
Moore on Cellini but horror draw for Soumillon
Ryan Moore will ride Benvenuto Cellini and since his Epsom run, or non participation when he was treated like fine porcelain, he conquered in the Irish Derby but flopped in the Prix Niel recently behind Varandir and looked awkward under pressure.
He was turned over at 4/61.67 that day and was also beaten by Kalpana in the King George, but the draw surely has influence that price of 12/113.00 as he was 20s at the beginning of the week?
Aidan O'Brien's team must have let out a loud "zut alors" on hearing Diamond Necklace will come from stall 16. Less car park more nearer Roland Garros on the clay, and Aidan certainly didn't thank the draw person, Monsieur de Cordon, the ribbon cutter, the draw-maker, the pacemaker et al.
Diamond Necklace and her brilliance has seen her take the French Guineas and French Oaks this term before another prize against her elders in the Nassau Stakes at Goodwood. Her faultless campaign was de-railed last time by Aventure in the Romanet - beaten 2L.
A 14/115.00 shot, she'll need some miracle to overcome that position but stats are there to be broken.
Minnie Hauk has been given 10, which is hard lines on her runner-up spot to Daryz last year from trap 1. It's astonishing to think she was the 9/43.25 favourite for the race 12 months ago, and yet can be backed at 20/121.00 and she hasn't looked the same in 2026, sadly.
William Buick rides the Hauk with "Super Soumy" on Diamond Necklace.
Pace Map with Draw
FRONT RUNNERS: Bay City Roller? (15), Friendly Soul (7).
PROMINENT RACERS: Daryz (5), Saddadd? (9), Chestnut Rocket (2), Meisho Tabaru (13), Arrow Eagle (14), Bay City Roller? (15), Minnie Hauk (10).
MID DIVISION: Admire Terra (12), Varandir (4), Maltese Cross (11), Diamond Necklace (16).
HOLD-UP: Saddadd? (9), Admire Terra (12), Arrow Eagle (14), Minnie Hauk (10), Kalpana (6), Benvenuto Cellini (1), Bright Light (8), Thundering On (3).
The gurus from Halifax for Timeform have revealed that from 2000 to 2014, stalls one to four made the first three more often than chance; Daryz from two last year was lovely, and five this year is not too far behind.
Bay City Roller could be the problem in 15 as his natural run style is to go forward and he'd have to scoff in the face of convention to make all from there.
Sticking with my antepost pick
I couldn't quite understand the reticence to shorten Varandir this week with plenty in his favour. I was with Varandir at the start of the week in my antepost column, and my flames have not been dimmed.
He's taken the well-trodden Arc path with a Prix Niel victory and three-year-olds have won precisely 10 of the last 20 renewals.
In the Niel; he had the luxury of a front-runner that either set the pace or was largely ignored, it mattered little to Varandir, who got up pretty easily, and considering that was a small field race, the larger field with pace will help him as he looks a good stayer, indeed as stout as a castle keep and a reprisal of the old fashioned stayer.
Rail Link complete the Niel/Arc double in 2006 underneath the old Longchamp cloister.
There's a bit of Rail Link in Varandir. Of course he wouldn't have the acceleration of his fellow Aga Khan-owned illustrious previous winner Daryz, but he has taken in the trials well, has a good draw and will stay.
Stats do favour the fillies
As outlined making the case for Varandir, the three-year-old stat is good, but not as strong as the filly stat, with five of the last ten renewals going to a filly.
The weight allowance is a godsend, and if Diamond Necklace wasn't in 16, she'd be high on my list. While she has the weight, her form over shorter means she has to play to others' tunes and is not certain to stay.
She beat Friendly Soul fair and square in the Nassau and off a steady pace (107%) ran the fastest final furlong.
Her instant pick-up wasn't push button at a speed track but she travelled well in the Romanet last time without the ability to match the turn of foot on the inside of the winner, so perhaps the extra couple of furlongs will help?
She is a 14/115.00 shot, perhaps on stamina, more so on draw. But a filly with such class running from under nine stone has to run a big race.
And if anyone is going to be as cunning as Agrippa around Longchamp it's Soumillon, who first rode the winner of this race in 2003 with the great Dalakhani.
Zarkava came five years later and Orfervre is still coming there, one day Christophe, one day.
Back Diamond Necklace in the 15:05 at Paris Longchamp on Sunday EW
Thundering On looked a cut above in the Oaks at Epsom, a monumental display in very tough conditions but she failed to run her race in the subsequent Pretty Polly.
I am hoping the flop in the PP wasn't due to the quick ground and perhaps more to do with a fairly swift turnaround in just three weeks. She put right the wrong in the Blandford subsequently.
The ground was good officially with times indicating some yielding and if there is a scintilla of good to soft in Paris on Sunday she comes into my plans.
Alan Dudman's Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 1-2-3
1) Varandir
2) Thundering On
3) Diamond Necklace
Back Varandir in the 15:05 at Paris Longchamp on Sunday