Irish Grand National Big Race Verdict: Better Times Ahead the JP pick at 14/1

---

Six places on the Betfair Sportsbook

Six places on the Betfair Sportsbook and 30 declared for the Irish Grand National at 17:00 at Fairyhouse on Monday, although my two ante-post selections from Tuesday are not in the race. I had tipped and written, nay waxed lyrical, about Holloway Queen and about 30 mins after publishing she wasn't running.

Those waiting on Paul Townend's ride of choice might be happy if they backed Kiss Will at 12/113.00 pre-Paul choice, as now Kiss Will is 6/17.00 and one of the big market movers.

Monbeg Genius was a positive on Saturday evening from 14/115.00 into 11/112.00 and heads a host of JP McManus horses that have been backed. Goraibhmaithagat 16/117.00 into 11/112.00, Showurappreciation 16/117.00 into 12/113.00, Waterford Whispers 33/134.00 into 16/117.00 were all positives late on Saturday evening.

Well done to ITV for taking up the race again too!

---

Irish Grand National Trends

- Nine seven-year-olds have won the race since 2000, and in that period of the last 25 years there have been six eight-year-olds, four nine-year-olds and only three six-year-olds.

- Willie Mullins has won the race twice in 2019 and 2023 with six-year-old Burrows Saint and seven-year-old I Am Maximus.

- Gordon Elliott last won the race in 2018 with nine-year-old General Principle.

- 19 of the last 22 winners carried 10-13 or less in weight.

---

---

The Jukebox Kid the big Pauling hope

Nicky Henderson opted the swerve move with Holloway Queen, a real shame as a National Hunt Chase winner, but his former pupil Ben Pauling is rolling the Fairyhouse dice with The Jukebox Kid - a big improving novice who has another test with a new distance of 3m5f.

No doubt he has been impressive, and with his latest Reynoldstown Novices' Chase victory at Ascot, is a worthy favourite if not a little short and dare I say hyped up. His jumping was ace at Ascot I cannot deny, and he looks the type who builds a rhythm under Ben Jones, but he beat only two rivals last time and the finish speed was pushing 108% and Monday is different ball game altogether. 

I feel his best piece of form came at Carlisle on his first run of the season when beating Grand Geste, a horse who went on to win the Tommy Whittle and Grand National Trial.

Has Townend opted for the right one?

Kiss Will finished well beaten in the Golden Miller at the Cheltenham festival last time into fifth with the ground and trip of 2m4f factors likely against him. He ran well in February in heavy going and while he is down 2lb from Cheltenham, his jumping needs to sharpen up and I think he is a poor price here.

Solider In Milan beat Kiss Will at Punchestown over 2m7f in February and subsequently was dropped in trip to 2m6f on his next start against C'Est Ta Chance with the different tactics employed in being held up not working.

He has a handicap debut mark of 142.

---

Key form lines

Better Times Ahead has a bit of history to beat as a nine-year-old as it's not exactly been the most lucrative age group but he's got experience around Fairyhouse with winning form and had a lovely prep last time out over hurdles.

That run at Naas was over 2m3f so is easily ignored, but his victory in the Porterstown over 3m6f at Fairyhouse in November was quite something. He could easily have been out of the race with the late drama with fallers, and he still had plenty to do with two fences to go.

At 29f, his time of 14.08 was miles quicker than anything else and at 30f, the final one, his sectional of 16.33 seconds versus the runner-up's 17.00 seconds, and the third's 17.87 highlights his stamina.

That came on good to soft so conditions should be perfect.

My other pick in the green and gold livery is Showurappreciation with the penalty and the choice of Mark Walsh.

He won a decent novice over the fences at Navan last time over 3m with a bit of a Mark Walsh masterclass in reeling in Kish Bank.

Showurappreciation was ridden confidently and still had plenty to do into the straight, and while his bunny hop style of jump two out wasn't exactly his most fluent, he got to Kish Bank easily and the third was 11L away.

With only five runs over fences and a low weight, he's also high on my list as the second bet. 

---

Pace map and tactics

FRONT RUNNERS: The Jukebox Kid, Soldier In Milan, Kurasso Blue, The Enabler.

PROMINENT RACERS: Better Days Ahead, Joystick, Yeah Man, C'Est Ta Chance, Flicker Of Hope, Soldier In Milan, Monbeg Genius, Shecouldbeanything, One Big Bang, Karia Des Blaises, Kurasso Blue, O'Toole, Western Walk, Born Braver, Waterford Whispers.

MID-DIVISION: Search For Glory, Argento Boy, Rushmount, Yeah Man, Shecouldbeanything, Kiss Will, Goraibhmaithagat, Better Times Ahead, Showurappreciation.

HOLD UP: Argento Boy, C'Est Ta Chance, Goraibhmaithagat, O'Toole, Sa Majeste.

---

Trainer form

Gordon Elliott: 4-39 at 10% last two weeks, 17-89 at 19% at Fairyhouse this term.

Willie Mullins: 7-31 at 23% last two weeks, 13-56 at 23% at Fairyhouse this term.

Emmet Mullins: 0-7 last two weeks, 7-54 at 13% last five seasons at Fairyhouse.

Gavin Cromwell: 7-32 at 22% last two weeks, 3-69 at 4% at Fairyhouse this term.

Jonathan Sweeney: 0-2 last two weeks.

Henry De Bromhead: 3-30 at 10% last two weeks, 1-30 at 3% at Fairyhouse this term.

Mark Fahey: 1-7 at 14% last two weeks.

Stuart Crawford: 0-3 last two weeks.

---

Alan Dudman's 1-2-3-4 Verdict

With the performances of Showurappreciation and Better Times Ahead in the Portestown, I don't want to leave them out of the first four prediction and are perfectly fine prices for each-way on the Sportsbook at 14s and 12s.

I am interested to see how Karia Des Blaises fares as a six-year-old mare and 15L winner last time and she is a massive 25/126.00. Rushmount at 40/141.00 ran in a Grade 1 last time in the Brown Advisory but he did win easily previously at Thurles by double digits might be worth a little go each-way with the six places.

1) Better Times Ahead

2) Showurappreciation

3) Rushmount

4) Karia Des Blaises

Now read more tips and previews here!