Irish 2000 Guineas Big Race Verdict: Gstaad to show class but back a big run from 35/1 outsider

Gstaad odds-on to beat Distant Storm again

As 10 runners stand their ground for Saturday's Irish 2000 Guineas, the ground staff appear to be scared stiff of quick ground. They're watering the round course and it is good to yielding and good in places.

With a very short price favourite here for Aidan O'Brien in Gstaad, the balance of power looks unlikely to shift from the dark blue rose to the royal blue of Godolphin.

Charlie Appleby, now in rip-roaring form, has Distant Storm as a player and he's the second fav at 4/15.00.

Gstaad produced a sensational performance when landing the Group 2 Coventry Stakes last summer as a juvenile at Royal Ascot - running a breath-bursting 11.56 seconds at the penultimate furlong to rout a class field by 3L.

It was quick ground then and conditions will be nowhere near as fast for Saturday. It's hard to believe Gstaad has been beaten into second on four occasions since that win with his only success recorded subsequently coming in the Breeders Cup.

He had zero chance against Bow Echo, who is the superstar in waiting amongst the Classic generation, at Newmarket. But Gstaad had 8L in hand over Distant Storm in the 2000 Guineas back in third. Distant Storm will need a miracle to close such a chasm and yet the 8L is of little relevance it appears in the betting as Distant Storm is the second fav.

Burke holds the key but will his raider stay?

Karl Burke has a live contender in Alparslan - winner of the Greenham Stakes over 7f at Newbury and a traditional trial race for Classic honours.

There is the stamina doubt with him as a son of Dandy Man, not a natural source for a Classic winner. A percentage of a tick over 8% from 391 runners over 1m for the sire means we have to question the stamina.

His racing thus far has been 6f once and three times at 7f. While he does hold a win at Curragh as a juvenile last term, and handled the softer conditions well when landing a Sales race under Cliff Lee, the jockey has jumped ship and stays in the UK, which again raises a doubt.

Watching his Sales' race victory at the Curragh, near side, he destroyed the field, winning by nearly 4L. Like Gstaad, he had that devastating penultimate furlong on the clock and ran into a headwind that day too.

He was handy then in terms of tactics and made the running at Newbury last time too, and there was a point where he needed to be shaken up. While potentially holding the advantage on the stands' side rail, his final furlong was far from the strongest in the race - it was third best - and there is enough of a doubt to avoid him as a win bet.

Burke said of the stamina: "I think the key will be whether he stays. If he stays the mile well, then there's no reason why he shouldn't run a big race. I'm sure he'd be bang there at the furlong pole and then it'll be a question of how his stamina kicks in.

"He's in good shape, we're very happy with him and he'll love the ground. He's a course winner too so he's got a lot going for him and I'm looking forward to seeing him run."

Potential for a shock?

There are three places here and the possibility of front-runners playing the hare at big prices.

I can see Alparslan being the "wiseguy" horse and the price contracting by the time of the race on Saturday so I want to look elsewhere for a place punt.

Go Just Do It is 35/136.00 on the Sportsbook and is an unknown as his his win last time came in a lowly Gowran Park Maiden and rarely does a win there mean accession to a kingly place.

However, the manner of the victory was stylish. He replicated the main players Gstaad and Alperslan with a quick penultimate furlong at 11.50 seconds, which was on slow going, and he shot away.

The victory came off a steady pace over 7f and he looks the type to have no issue whatsoever with the mile. He has track experience too when runner-up in a Curragh Maiden in heavy (a race he travelled very well in) and third in the Group 2 Futurity behind Constitution River.

Watered going will help and the price looks worth a punt with the three places.

Alan Dudman's Irish 2000 Guineas 1-2-3

With Gstaad's 2000 Guineas performance at Newmarket and the fact he was so far ahead of anything else, I would not want to be laying him.

Yes he is [4/9] but there is no point trying to oppose a favourite for the sake of it. O'Brien, is in something of a mini Irish 2000 Guineas drought, with just one winner in the last nine seasons (Paddington), but he has won the race 12 times.

He said of Gstaad's Guineas run: "The winner (Bow Echo) was very good that day and was in a position to get a little more cover in the first half of the race, but that's the way they were drawn."

I am happy to go each way with Joseph and the 35/136.00 poke Go Just Do It. With Neolithic potentially on pacemaking duties for Ballydoyle, they will need to make this a test to explore the potential holes in Alparslan's stamina. I stress they are potential holes.

1) Gstaad
2) Go Just Do It
3) Neolithic

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