Friday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin says Moon De Vega is still the best bet in the Oaks

Sometimes you just have to go with your gut as a punter, and I have been backing Moon De Vega for the Oaks ever since her luckless run in the Cheshire Oaks at the start of May.

From immediately after that race up until this Wednesday morning before the ante-post market was suspended, she has had my support.

Just chipping, rather than smashing, away - you don't have to go in that big at some of the prices she has been trading at these past few weeks in order to tee up a nice potential win - and I remain very hopeful of a big run.

So much so that I genuinely believe she still rates the bet in the race at 42.041/1 or bigger in the Oaks at 16:30 for those new to the party, even if being drawn 11 of 11 wasn't what I was hoping to see.

Desert Moon De Vega? No chance

Still, rather there than trap one I guess, and it has probably added a few points to her Exchange price - and maybe the drying ground has to (I imagine we will start Friday on good ground) - so I am not deserting her now.

Basically, very little has changed since I stuck her up at 66/1 each-way here last month.

I appreciate she is the second lowest-rated filly in here - her official mark of 95 is about a minimum 20lb below what will be required to win this - but anyone who saw her run against Thoughts Of June at Chester has to admit she is vastly superior to that current assessment.

She simply got no run through on the inner that day - she was going every bit as well as the eventual winner there before being stopped in her tracks - and her jockey had no option but to sit and suffer, switch to the outside, and let her come home in her own time.

Ralph's record a big plus

She clearly had loads left in the tank and, while it may be a stretch for most to see her winning this, the fact that Ralph Beckett trains her must be considered a positive, given his record in this race.

One name stares out at you when looking at the recent domination of this Classic by Aidan O'Brien and John Gosden, and that is Beckett.

He took it most recently with Talent, having just her fourth start, in 2013 - she went into the race rated just 96 - and Look Here, after a mere two runs beforehand, at odds of 33/1 in 2008. Both gagged up.

Look Here won the race off the back of a Lingfield Oaks Trial defeat and it is interesting to note that Beckett's Manuela De Vega finished fourth (beaten under 3 lengths) at 16/1 in the 2019 Oaks, having been easily beaten at Chester before when also suffering trouble in running.

I could be way out of line here, but Moon De Vega remains the bet in the race for me at 33/1+. Nothing in the race boasts a dominant level of form, and that includes the short-priced favourite Emily Upjohn.

Concert Hall, drawn next to the selection in 10, makes most appeal of the others at the prices. She looks all about a 1m4f horse in waiting, if one lacking in gears, and 9s each-way about her is very acceptable, as is the 13.012/1 win-only on the Exchange.

Eye-catching filly to Keep improving

I don't normally tip or bet in 2yo races but I am surprised to see Keep Bidding still trading as big as 6/1 on the Exchange in 14:00. And she is trained by that man Beckett again.

I thought she would have been too obvious in the market, but I don't think that is the case at all, and I was actually very taken aback by the Betfair Sportsbook's opening 10/1 (a quote that was mirrored elsewhere in the marketplace on Wednesday morning, too).

I clearly wasn't alone.

Simply put, this filly was a huge eye-catcher when second on her debut over 5f at Nottingham 12 days ago, and massive improvement looks to be on the cards.

Mind you, that debut run already gives her a very solid form base going into this race.

She was ridden very much with an eye to the future at Nottingham - she was also very weak in the mark, going off at a Betfair SP of 32.861593/50 - but the way she breezed into second close home stamped her down as a sure-fire improver next time.

It remains to be seen whether she has the toe for 6f around here - her dam was a decent 5f handicapper though, rated 93 at her peak - but she has a decent draw in four and the extra furlong her must be in her favour.

I thought I recognised her colours, so I checked out the owners, The Obank Partnership.

Last year, their Tamra's Rock shaped very well when a 20/1 third on her debut at Kempton before winning at odds-on at the track next time just a fortnight later - she was subsequently sold to Hong Kong by the looks of it - and maybe this has been a similar short-turnaround plan, too.

The fixed-odds 10s may have all predictably gone early doors (as did everything down to 13/2, in fact), but back her at 7.06/1 or bigger on the Exchange. There is hopefully still some price juice to be squeezed there, and she may well drift out again, I suppose.

You have to be tempted by Oh This Is Us

I was going to take two against the field, win-only on the exchange, in the 1m13yd handicap at 14:35 in the shape of Oh This Is Us and Totally Charming, but then I clocked their draws and I definitely had second thoughts about both.

Totally Charming remains on a very good mark to my eye, having been raised 4lb for her Lingfield win last time, but she has been drawn in one and William Buick will need all the luck in the world on this usually patiently-ridden filly.

He may try to gun her out, but there is probable pace in stalls two and five, and she has been defensively priced up at 11/2 on the fixed-odds front (the opening 7s was quickly taken on Wednesday, which surprised me) and it is easy to see her doubling in price after 100 yards.

Maybe I will chance my arm in-running with her, but not beforehand at her current odds, ta.

Oh This Is Us has hardly been given a magic carpet draw in 14 either and the fact that all his best form has come in small fields - I know he finished a neck second in a 22-runner Lincoln but that is the outlier and some while ago now, too - nearly put me off, too.

As did the fact that his price has shortened from 12s to 8s since Wednesday morning.

But, boy, you have to be tempted by him off a mark of just 92 (he is set to go down another 1lb in future, in fact) as he shaped plenty well enough at Chester last weekend - his jockey could have been a touch more urgent there - and he has cascaded down the handicap.

This time last year he was winning the Group 3 Diomed Stakes at this meeting at 18/1, after which he was rated 112, and he started 2022 off 105.

The hustle and bustle could prove his undoing here, but I am going to take my chances to small stakes at 8/1 each way, five places, with the Sportsbook.

I would not go any lower than 8s, though. That is his base price for me.

I won't get involved in the Coronation Cup at 15:10, but Hukum would be my first port of call if I were tempted to throw a few quid at the race at 5/1+ on the Exchange.

I not a fan of any of these in truth, certainly not in Group 1-winning terms anyway, but Hukum looks a solid proposition and I imagine Owen Burrows will have him fully revved up here on his first outing since a close-up seventh in the Sheema Classic back in March.

The horse has a good record when fresh and his best form is on a par with shorter-priced rivals like Pyledriver and Manobo if you ask me.

Cap fits even if he is a quirky sort

Cap Francais looks an attractive bet at 7/1 each-way, four places, in the 15:45.

In short, he looks to have everything going for him and, with a fair wind, should be hard to knock out of the first four at the very least.

He can be a quirky sort but he was rated 103 at his peak when with Ed Walker a few years back - he finished second in the Blue Riband Derby trial here in 2019 - and he has not performed too far off that mark in two recent outings.

Apparently, he was going to be campaigned in Dubai earlier in the year before picking up an injury, so his Newmarket win at the end of April is all the more meritorious. You can mark up his second to an in-form improver on good to soft ground at Chester last time, as his rider took a fair while to get him organised there, by which time the winner had flown.

Off the same mark here, I rate his chances, and drying ground is just the ticket, though a bit of ease would be fine if there is still any remaining by race-time.

You have to really fear the favourite Moktasaab though, given the manner of his Goodwood win last time, and Victory Chime at 14/1+ is worth considering, which is why I am backing the selection each-way rather than a bigger price win-only on the exchange.

Impressive Goodwood winner Dawn Of Liberation was a touch bigger price than I expected at around 5/2 in the 17:10 without necessitating a tip or a bet.

Orbaan's run at York last time still niggles me - if he had made that gap 2f out, I reckon he would have gone close to winning and not been beaten 4 lengths - so I was undecided whether to stick him up in the 7f handicap at 17:45.

Very often though, those unlucky bets can tempt you in to poor ones next time, especially when no-one missed the trouble he encountered last time. And you suspect that could have been D-Day for him too, having been backed from as big as 22/1 into half those odds.

I have no doubt that he is a winner in waiting somewhere off his mark of just 87, but I think 7f around here could be too sharp for him - especially on that rapidly, presumably drying ground - and, again, it is not hard to envisage more in-running pain from stall three.

And I thought the Sportsbook's 11s only fair anyway, and that is the best price around.

Famous last words and all that.

Finish Friday with Profit

I had a second look at the race and decided I am going to have a few quid on Pocket The Profit at 10/1 each-way, five places.

He is a very decent bet, in fact. He is one of those bets that you more you looked, the more you liked his chance.

He has raced exclusively over 6f this season and, while he won at Pontefract, that came on soft ground from an advantageous stall one. I think he needs 7f when hitting these quicker conditions.

He won over the trip at Brighton last season, his only start at this distance, and Hayley Turner can hopefully plot a path home from her wide draw in 14.

I'll accept her forfeiting ground on the outside if it means her getting an uninterrupted and clean run at it, as I expect - or hope - Pocket The Profit to be coming home with a wet sail in the closing 2f.

The hood, which has been left on for the past two runs (for which he has been dropped 2lb), is back on here. All of his five wins have come in that headgear, and that strikes me as a significant signal of intent.

Pocket The Profit opened up at 16s and 14s on Wednesday, and I don't like tipping towards the end of early gambles (I hate it, in fact, as with two earlier tips), but the current 10s is very fair with the extra place, and it is simply a case of the initial prices needed ignoring, as they were bang wrong.

Good luck on Oaks day.

Profit and Loss (from March 26)

Staked: 101

Returns: 177.9pts

P/L: +76.9

Previous (April 14 2021 to March 25 2022)

P/L: + 183.1