-
Field reduced to nine at five day stage
-
Desert Hero has the stamina for Donny
-
Hope springs again for Tower of London
If National Rail have a runaway train that needs stopping then I am their man, as I could bring anything to a grinding halt in a mere second at the moment.
Caius Chorister and Vespertilio were the latest examples of horses that I backed finding absolutely zilch after hitting 1.121/8 in-running this weekend.
And I haven't exactly traded Saturday's St Leger ante-post market too well, either.
Or so I thought. Then the updated runners came through at just after 1pm and my heart sang with renewed hope.
As listeners of Weighed In and Racing Only Bettor podcast listeners will be aware, in the last three months I have backed Tower Of London, Chesspiece and Desert Hero, and I had pretty much gone off all of them before the good news came through on Monday. Anyway, more on those in a moment.
Nine set for Doncaster Group 1
There were 28 in the race prior to Monday's five-day stage at midday and that number has come down to a mere nine, with 20 being pulled out and, as expected, Middle Earth being supplemented.
Oh, and a bit of ground housekeeping, too. Bizarrely Doncaster say watering is on hold with rain forecast this evening and Tuesday. I say bizarrely as the St Leger course is currently good, good to soft, so why would they even be considering irrigation?
The site I use currently has a bit of rain on Monday, but 5mm on Tuesday and Friday, so make of that what you will. Maybe we are looking at a combination of good and good to soft coming Saturday, but who knows?
Middle Earth open to more improvement
Middle Earth is the horse I will start with as I was hugely impressed with him in the Melrose, and I can fully understand why owners Qatar Racing have decided to resist the big money offers from Australia for him (for now at least) and go for the Classic.
The Gozzas would have directed them on that score, no doubt with a fair bit of self-interest thrown in. This is horseracing, after all.
Firstly, let's outline the case why the owners should have sold him for what I would imagine would have been approaching, or exceeding, seven-figure bids.
I have no idea how much last year's Melrose winner (off 83) Soulcombe was sold for but he is now second favourite for the Melbourne Cup behind Vauban.
Middle Earth "only" won the Melrose off a mark of 93 and the form has hardly been advertised since.
The runner-up Denmark was soundly beaten off a mark of 102 at Haydock on Saturday when looking an awkward ride once again - very surprisingly, he was one of the nine left in the Classic on Monday and is 50/151.00 - and the fourth home, Lordship, ran even worse in the same race.
So does the 102-rated Middle Earth deserve to be as short as 13/27.50 with the Sportsbook?
I am inclined to say "yes" as he really did create a visually striking impression at York on his handicap debut (the Time Bandits were very happy with the clock, too) and his earlier defeat of subsequent winners Naqeeb and Marmara Sea has worked out well.
And this half-brother to the very smart Buckaroo is open to any amount of improvement after just four starts.
Furthermore, it is often worth rolling the dice in this Classic with relatively lowly-rated handicappers.
Last year's renewal was dominated by horses in the mid-to-high 100s going into the race (the 4 ½ length sixth was rated a mere 89) and Harbour Law was on a perch of just 102 when winning it in 2016.
Being an improving, unexposed but guaranteed stayer is a very potent mix in this race.
The Gozzas already have the St Leger favourite in 9/43.25 chance Gregory, who was sold to Wathnan Racing for a pretty penny no doubt after his Queen's Vase win at Royal Ascot, and Arrest.
John Gosden was putting on a particularly brave face after Gregory got stuffed by Continuous and Castle Way in the Voltigeur, saying in many ways the 8/111.73 favourite at York getting beaten 4 ¾ lengths was somehow the ideal Donny trial.
Stuff and nonsense obviously, but there is little doubt Frankie Dettori had a brainfreeze in front, going far too hard. So you can mark up Gregory's performance, especially as he actually stuck on pretty well in the closing stages when he had every right to fall out the back of the TV.
But that horse must have had a very hard race and at 9/43.25 he makes very limited appeal.
Neither does the wide-margin Voltigeur winner Continuous at 3/14.00 either. Aidan O'Brien had 12 of the 28 in the race before Monday's five-day stage, and he has trimmed his involvement to just four.
Trip will suit Gosdens' Arrest
Before we deal with them, we may as well chat about with the Gosdens' other entry Arrest, who went off favourite for the Derby and was back to form when a smashed-up winner at 5/61.84 at Newbury last time.
He is certainly a horse who will relish any over-watering or rainfall, and he looks a grinder who will be well suited by the 1m6f115yd trip. The stable are set to fire three very potent arrows on Saturday, with Arrest 8/19.00 with the Sportsbook.
Elsewhere at the top of the market, they have apparently always thought the world of Continuous, and it could be that he has simply been a late bloomer.
He had a setback close to his returning third in the Dante, he blew out in the French Derby and then he ran a lot better behind King Of Steel when runner-up in the King Edward VII Stakes.
So what do we make of that York win, a race in which Betfair ambassador Ryan Moore gave him an optimal ride from off the pace. Was it as good as it looked?
It might be I guess, and your opinion has to change when confronted by new evidence, but I am pretty sure they have never had this horse marked down as a St Leger type.
Indeed, I reckon they may not have even pegged him as a horse sure to stay 1m4f after the Dante, otherwise they would surely have gone to Epsom with him and not Chantilly over an extended 1m2f.
I'd have my doubts about him staying an extended 1m6f - he is also by Hearts Cry out of a dam whose sole win came over a mile - and a comment from Aidan O'Brien immediately after the Voltigeur intrigued me.
O Brien said: "I asked Ryan and he said he didn't need a mile and six but you wouldn't rule him out." That doesn't scream "sure to stay" to me.
The stable also have the big Spring talking horse Alexandroupolis in here (the Sportsbook are ducking him at 16/117.00), the aforementioned Denmark and Tower Of London.
Doncaster - Saturday 15:35: Tower of London
Right, more importantly as cash is king, back to the three horses I have backed.
This is not aftertiming before anyone asks, as it is well documented in Podland, and even if it is, it is the truth anyway. And I don't care either way.
I took an early flier on Tower Of London at 12/113.00 after his Down Royal success in June and I wasn't at all downhearted by his subsequent second in the Bahrain Trophy as I think he was comfortably the best horse there in defeat, not getting a clean shot at it.
However, I certainly was disappointed to hear rumours in recent weeks that Doncaster plans may have been shelved though, with some suggesting Australia was now the plan and not the St Leger.
I was therefore delighted to see him among the nine entries, and hope springs eternal once again. He is 10/111.00.
Doncaster - Saturday 15:35: Chesspiece
I also backed the Queen's Vase third Chesspiece at 20/121.00 after his Hamilton success over 1m3f and he too certainly lost little in defeat (bar the little matter of the £113.420 pot obviously) when a neck second to Desert Hero in the Gordon Stakes over 1m4f, seeing off all-comers from the front until the winner nabbed him close home.
I took a very positive view of that form - the front two pulled 3 lengths clear of the third - so much so that I threw my third dart at the Classic with the winner at 8/19.00.
Doncaster - Saturday 15:35: Desert Hero
The Sportsbook were keeping Desert Hero onside at 6/17.00 at the time and were right to do so as he now trades at 5/16.00. Chesspiece is 10/111.00 with the Betfair Sportsbook, though bigger on the Exchange.
None are out of the reckoning yet then, so at least I will hopefully get a run for my money, but Desert Hero is obviously my number one, not least because the Sea The Stars colt ground it out very well at Goodwood and has a stamina-laden pedigree will hopefully see him improve fore the extra 2f at Donny.
And I imagine he will be the one for the column inches through the week, being owned by Chuck and Cammy.
In short, even though they are not that much shorter now, at least I look to have two definite runners on my side - Desert Hero and Chesspiece are with trainers with just one entry - and hopefully a third in Tower Of London, but I imagine O'Brien won't firm up his runners until they work on Wednesday morning.
So fingers crossed.
With my current luck-cum-judgement though, I fully expect all three of my ante-post bets to be withdrawn on Thursday morning.
Listen to TC on Weighed-In
Horse Racing Tips: Dandy can be just fine in 55/1 Newcastle Monday multiple