Antepost Racing Tips: Sandown duo appeal with a 16/1 Musselburgh outsider

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• Sandown and Musselbrugh priced up on the Sportsbook ahead of ITV cards on Saturday

• Alan Dudman is looking to Mr Vango at the weekend as one of three tips 

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Sandown and Musselburgh under the cosh with weather

The quality of the Sandown mud is likely to assert itself on Saturday, more so for the hurdlers, as the course is currently soft, heavy in places on the chase part and heavy, soft in places on the other. The ground is also saturated on the hurdles track and rain is forecast for three of the days in the build up this week.

Five of the races from, as it always known, "The Esher venue" feature for the weekend cameras, and three from Musselburgh. I was told at the weekend that a person from a very well to-do family came from the "rough part" of Esher. The only rough parts is the going, and hopefully no holes appear for the gilded overclass there.

Musselburgh's trio of races are very good but snow is forecast in Scotland and it will be a key week for the home team from Kinross, with Lucinda Russell and Michael Scudamore set to fire some guns at the weekend, but prior to racing on Tuesday were one winner from 29 runners and were hopelessly out of nick.

Another trainer with runners on Saturday is Venetia Williams, who is faring even worse and is without a winner in 43 days.

Sandown - 12:55 Novices' Limited Handicap Chase: Back Lightningupourdays @ 6/17.00

Soft conditions seem to appeal for Alistair Ralph's Lightningupourdays and he looks on a reasonable mark of 119 from what we have seen so far.

He ran well at Newbury last winter over hurdles behind Bucephalus - not run in Alexandria by the way, and Neil Mulholland's Bucephalus is now rated in the 130s.

After that, Lightningupourdays had almost a year off and returned at Hereford last month with a third at Hereford over 2m4f in soft. It was a 0-140 and looking at the first and second - Came From Nowhere has since beaten Tripoli Flyer at Ascot from 124 and bolted up and Good To Be Alive scored on Monday from 126 over hurdles. The form could hardly have a more glowing endorsement.

The problem here is the dreaded double entry, as Lightningupurdays is also in potentially for Wetherby on the same day, but we are somewhat used to this scenario now.

He warrants a serious interest for his chase debut as soft conditions over 2m4f could well be his best, or certainly bring out more improvement.

Sandown - 15:42 Virgin Bet Masters Handicap Chase 3m: Back Mr Vango @ 9/43.25

Sara Bradstock has said Mr Vango won't be running on ground softer than good to soft in the future, and the trainer to Sandown on Saturday will reach the celestial city of mud. The problem for us bettors is that Mr Vango is doubly entered with an entry over hurdles on the card.

Not much difference between the two as he'll be off top weight in both and the 15:10 Handicap Hurdle looks a brute of a race, but it will likely be in heavy.

I am looking to the 15:42 over fences, as he was doughty and stoic as ever at Aintree finishing as the runner-up in the Becher Chase giving the winner Twig a stone in weight.

He'll be off 155 here, and next in the weights is Nassalam, who seems to be entered in every staying race and never runs. His form is also made of matchsticks, icing and sprinkles and you'd be keen to take him on from 145 wherever he goes.

Fortunate Man, the favourite here at 2/13.00 has some good novice form and was an easy winner at Aintree last time by over 3L and a rise of 4lb is hardly punitive. He only beat Kelce that day, who is 117, so he has to improve a fair bit and while I respect Jonjo is back in a bit of form (he could trumps his worse from earlier in the season) but I struggle with runners from that yard and am not keen on playing at 2/13.00 despite the fact he will be getting nearly two stone, but Mr Vango is used to the weight.

Musselburgh - 14:20 Scottish Champion Chase 2m4f: Back Breizh River EW three places @ 16/117.00

Nothing stands out too much at this stage for Musselburgh and I am somewhat fearful when the word "snow" appears in the forecast and rain also for the Friday and Saturday.

The Scottish Champion Chase has a grand title, and my tip here is rated 119 with Breizh River, so he hasn't got a champion rating for anything, but he was a good winner at Musselburgh last time over CD, from the front, and on good to soft.

With three places at 16/117.00 and the chance for potentially one or two to come out, he might not be 16/117.00 on the day.

Now he clearly has to improve a ton here as JPR is rated about 40lbs superior, but of the others, Tommy's Oscar looks past his best at eleven years of age, Insurrection from 139 was behind Breizh River last time and might have got closer had it not been for a bad blunder late on, and likewise The Kalooki Kid even further back in the same race.

Traprain Law is a 6/17.00 shot but as mentioned previously, backing anything from Lucinda Russell's yard at the moment has to be a worry purely as the stable cannot buy a winner.

He is a nimble little jumper Breizh River with barely a foot wrong in that victory, and one by one they tried to have a crack at him in front, and he kept finding more. He was rated 133 just 12 months ago (when well beaten on the New Year's Day card) but is well treated from his current figure of 119, hopefully he can hang on for a place. 

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