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Sandown priced up on the Sportsbook for Imperial Cup day on ITV4
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Hobbs' hurdler can go well in big race at 16/117.00 with four places
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Alan Dudman has two tips at 20/121.00 for the 13:50
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The Betfair-sponsored Sandown card provides the perfect precursor for Cheltenham with four of the races on ITV4.
Ground-wise we could be looking at more "good" as the week is dry and only this morning (Tuesday) I was greeted with clear blue skies and a mild temperature. Rain is forecast for Friday.
The 13:50 European Breeders' Fund Betfair 'National Hunt' Novices' Handicap Hurdle Final over 2m4f looks to be a belter in terms of entries. It is a field containing all manner of improvers as you'd expect and this was the race that Dan Skelton's Be Aware finished second in 12 months ago - and the grey is firmly on my radar for this year's Coral Cup.
A maximum field of 18 is allowed and we've 24 entries with the four places and Belliano for Betfair ambassador Paul Nicholls and Meetmebythesea for Ben Pauling both prominent in the betting.
However, I am quite tempted with a big price here with the 20s on offer for Lucy Wadham's Aviation.
Wadham's enjoying a fair season with her Saturday horses including Telepathique and Terresita and, while Aviation will have to improve on his Fakenham form, he is quite a battle-hardened sort with experience. I would be surprised if his ceiling is the current mark of 116.
Front-running tactics served him well last time winning on decent ground and he had to fight there when pestered at pace. But he showed a good attitude and I thought jus jumping stood up well - quite quick and low and didn't lose any time in the air.
That qualified him for this and Wadham said of the grey in her stable tour last year: "He has been running very consistently over hurdles to date and was a bit unlucky not to win at Fakenham. We will try and win a maiden hurdle with him, and we might try and qualify him for the EBF Final at Sandown. He is a lovely horse in the making, and he will ultimately go chasing."
He's only raced on good and good to soft in his career, so it appears the trainer has been keen to keep him away from winter ground. If he can lead or be prominent in a big field, we know he stays the trip and the ground has come right for him.
Wadham won this race in 2011 too with Alarazi.
Another 20/121.00 chance is Kepler's Law for Laura Morgan - a horse who was hit with a 14lb hike following a 30L win in testing conditions at Leicester last time - and the 6yo is owned by the former-Nottingham Forest full-back Alan Rogers who was known as "Tank".
While the horse himself has yet to reach "tank" status, he looks a strong stayer having competed over 2m6f at Newcastle on decent ground earlier in the season and ran a creditable third on his debut behind the very exciting Mister Meggit at Aintree in November.
In terms of a piece of form, you'd worry about any race in deep ground over 2m4f at Leicester by such a huge margin, but Olly Murphy's Barlovento was thrashed as the 5/42.25 favourite in that and was rated 117. However, he is double entered for the weekend and holds one at Ayr for a novice in Scotland.
I am tempted to put him up as an each-way bet again at such a big price, but Ayr would be a lot easier under a penalty. However, Morgan might be tempted here for the big pot rather than resist, and I hope they have a crack to see what they've got from a mark of 128.
Back Aviation in the 13:50 at Sandown E/W
Back Kepler's Law in the 13:50 at Sandown E/W
It would be quite the story if David Maxwell won a Betfair Imperial Cup as his French buy Just Ennemi is a 16/117.00 shot for the corinthian of all corinthians.
Last year's winner Go Dante has lost his form and it would be hard to make a case for the veteran in this year's renewal, while Paul Nicholls has won the race twice in recent seasons with Iceo and Malaya. His main hope could lie with Alfadil and recent Newbury third Sorceleur.
Tom Doniphon interests me here at 16s for Philip Hobbs and Johnson White, a team rejuvenated this season
The 6yo has gone through this season very consistently and might have been undone with the brutally testing conditions last time out when outstayed at Sandown by Taita Hills.
He thrashed Sorceleur at Taunton on his previous run and bolted up Taunton in kinder conditions (good to soft) in a conditionals' race in December. That was the performance I liked, as he travelled miles ahead of his mark of 112 from the front with a lovely spin around, jumping well and going through the race strongly.
Tom Doniphon looks a horse with a bit of physical presence too. The stable's comments after his defeat of Sorceleur: "He's probably not the horse you'd like to race a week after, but we thought the 7lb pull he got was too enticing (ran off his old mark)," said White.
"He's very straightforward, again he'll get further and will be a lovely chaser next year."
I can certainly see that with the chaser comments, a big strong type and a mark of 121 with the way he travelled at Taunton (twice) could underrate his chances for a stable that last won the Imperial Cup in 2010 with Qaspal with a certain AP McCoy on board. The drop back in distance from 2m3f and 2m4f to the minimum on Saturday means he shoud apply pressure from the front.
Back Tom Doniphon in the 14:25 at Sandown E/W
The final ITV4 race on Saturday is the 15:35 Best Odds On The Betfair Exchange Handicap Chase over 3m and once again the hopes are high for a decent-sized field with a max of 18 allowed and 20 entries at the time of writing on Tuesday morning.
Shomen Uchi looks more than ready for a step up to 3m for trainer Sam Thomas, although it's been quite the wait as he returned to the track for his chase debut at Carlisle two-and-a-half weeks ago after a layoff of 701 days. Bounce factor theory lovers will be put off by that whopping absence.
As chase debuts go it was more than pleasing and Carlisle is a very good track to introduce a novice. His jumping on the whole was good - accurate and standing off a few with some big leaps. The most pleasing aspect of the performance for a rookie was, however, the way he recovered from a late error in the straight and headed, yet fought back to win going away quite easily.
He hit 11/112.00 in-running in the closing stages and, with the manner of the pick-up over the stiff 2m4f at Carlisle, I can see the quick succession of fences at the Esher course suiting him. Certainly 3m will be of great benefit as he scored as a hurdler at Chepstow over the trip and stayed strongly.
Thomas is enjoying some big Saturday winners and he couldn't have had a more emphatic winner than last weekend's Katate Dori success by 15L in the Ladbrokes Trophy at Kempton.
We'll ride the Sam train for a bit longer.
Back Shomen Uchi in the 15:35 at Sandown