Timeform US SmartPlays: Monday November 17

Turf Paradise 21:21 - Aerial Dancer

The fourth race at Turf Paradise, a maiden claimer over a mile on the turf, promises to be a match between Aerial Dancer and Garnisheed Wages, both of whom were plying their trade at Santa Anita back in the summer without any success. Garnisheed Wages, who was also out of her depth at Del Mar in the same period, has run twice here, hitting the frame in an allowance race before going on to finish second in a maiden claimer. She should be up to winning a race like this but preference on this occasion is for Aerial Dancer who went down by a neck to Persisting on his first start here earlier this month and given that Persisting had been beaten around 3 lengths in a Graded event on his previous turf start that form reads well in the context of this race.     

Zia Park 21:51 - P. Millers Clock

The seventh race at Zia Park represents something of a drop in grade for the forecast favourite Black N Beauty, and if he is in the same form as he was back around the turn of the year when racking up three wins on the bounce at Sunland Park then he will take plenty of beating. His recent performances have been underwhelming, however, and he might be vulnerable to P. Millers Clock who is right at the top of his game right now. The selection has a decent strike rate himself and comes from the in-form Jon Arnett stable which is operating around a 35% strike rate right at the track. He was second over six and a half furlongs on his first run here since shipping in from Albuquerque but the return to a mile is very much in his favour and he can resume winning ways. 

Zia Park 22:17 - Doms Thunder

Doms Thunder has won his last two races at Zia Park, a claimer over today's trip and a starter allowance over six and a half furlongs, and the son of Dominique's Cat looks well placed to make it three on the spin in the eighth (22:17 GMT) at Zia Park. This race if anything represents a drop in class of opponent facing Doms Thunder, and given how he stayed on strongly last time to pull clear after forcing the pace wide then his Morning Line odds of 4.5 seem to seriously underestimate his chance. Indeed, three of his last four races have seen better performances from him than his rivals today have mustered recently and he should be nearer 3.5 in our book.   

Recommended Bets:

Turf Paradise race 4 (21:21 GMT) win back #7 AERIAL DANCER @ 3.02/1 or longer
Zia Park race 7 (21:51 GMT) win back #4 P. MILLERS CLOCK @ 3.613/5 or longer
Zia Park race 8 (22:17 GMT) win back #1 DOMS THUNDER @ 3.613/5 or longer