Timeform UK SmartPlays: Wednesday October 23

We start at Worcester, in the novices' event at 14:40. It's a good race of its kind, as you might expect at this time of year, so taking a chance mightn't be the obvious route, but such is Trafalgar's potential that he still rates as the bet. Runner-up in an Irish point, he then had three quick-fire starts over hurdles for Nigel Twiston-Davies in autumn 2011, having some strong form to his name from that time. Trafalgar hasn't been seen since, which brings in the risk, but he promises to make a better chaser, is temptingly handicapped and comes from a yard which is well capable of getting one ready after a break. Take the chance: he could be streets ahead of the rest of these.

Next we pay a visit to Fontwell, where the unique chase course makes part of our case in the 14:50. The figure-of-eight track lends itself to producing specialists, and that's just what Venetian Lad is. Admittedly, he seldom races anywhere else these days, but his record at Fontwell last May stands at four wins, two seconds and two thirds from 12 starts. Compare with favourite Kind of Easy, who it's acknowledged has more scope from a handicapping perspective but has been haphazard with his jumping on all four starts over fences, including two around here (unseated three out when last seen in February). At current prices, there's more mileage in siding with Venetian Lad.

We're back at Worcester come 15:15, and we're taking something of a chance again. The pattern here is well established, however. Around the time Trafalgar was running in novice hurdles, Christopher Wren was an improving sort over timber, winning a handicap from a BHA mark of 120. He's yet to hit those heights over fences, but has hinted that the ability is there on several occasions and he comes here following a spin on the Flat. The way he was ridden that day suggests it was a pipe-opener, so this return to fences is keenly-anticipated. The market has it about 5.04/1 that today will be the day Christopher Wren reveals his true worth as a chaser. We think it's more likely than that.

Timeform UK SmartPlays

Back Trafalgar @ 5.59/2 in the 14:40 Worcester
Back Venetian Lad @ 4.47/2 in the 14:50 Fontwell
Back Christopher Wren @ 5.04/1 in the 15:15 Worcester

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