Timeform UK SmartPlays: Wednesday December 18

We start at Newbury, in their novice handicap chase at 12:40. Plenty have room to improve, making it a competitive race of its type, though Midnight Prayer is proven to be well handicapped and could well have the measure of all of them at this stage. He won a similar event (which has worked out well) at Stratford on his chasing debut and was going best when being hampered and duly unseating at Chepstow last time. Either of those runs on their own would be sufficient proof of Midnight Prayer's ability to win from this mark, so having both is pretty conclusive evidence. With his jumping also looking assured up to now, Midnight Prayer looks a very solid opening bet.

Ludlow's 13:20 isn't a novice event, yet it's a novice we're selecting. Tornado In Milan made an encouraging debut over fences here last time, for all he was ultimately last of four, making some mistakes but still in with a chance two out. He was only beaten by less than four lengths and gets into this weaker race off the same mark. Similarly positive tactics, and hopefully fewer of the novice-like errors, should see him put up a bold showing.

Despite the small field, Newbury's 14:15 is the race most likely of those run today to have a bearing on good races down the line. Indeed, three of the four runners have already tried their hand in top handicap chases. It's the exception that we're most interested in, though. Gullinbursti is making up for lost time this season, winning in style over fences at Market Rasen before finishing a respectable fifth in the super-competitive Fixed Brush hurdle at Haydock on Betfair Chase day. Were today's race a handicap, he'd rightly be giving weight away to all of his rivals, yet the penalty structure of this graduation chase means that Gullinbursti receives weight all round. Everything looks in place for him to take advantage.

Timeform UK SmartPlays

Back Midnight Prayer @ 3.052/1 in the 12:40 Newbury
Back Tornado In Milan @ 4.131/10 in the 13:20 Ludlow
Back Gullinbursti @ 2.789/5 in the 14:15 Newbury