Timeform UK SmartPlays: Thursday March 6

We start in Cumbria, with the first of two selections over fences there coming in the 15:45. It's a weak race and Edmund is fairly short, though not short enough to put us off. His claims are outstanding in this field, progressive all winter bar a tumble at Newcastle back in January. It was only another improver that kept him from the winners' enclosure when he ran over C&D last time and here Edmund gets to try again from the same mark. Opposition this time is inferior throughout, the lurking danger of near-useful hurdler Allow Me the most obvious threat, so Edmund is a value play at anything above 2.01/1.

We switch to Wincanton and to hurdles next, for their 16:35. The market has already started to cotton on to Canadian Dreamer's impending revival, his price shorter than might have been expected for a horse with form figures of 97U this season. Still, the case to be made is stronger than even current odds imply. On his best form for Nigel Twiston-Davies Canadian Dreamer could be well above this lowly 0-100 grade, while his runs this season have provided some hints and nudges towards something better to come once the time is right. In this grade, under these conditions and back in the hands of Wayne Hutchinson having been amateur-ridden last time, it looks as though the market murmurs could be accurate: Canadian Dreamer seems poised to strike.

Temptation to refer to Carlisle's 16:45 as a de facto 0-95 has been stymied by Canadian Dreamer-like money for top-weight Big News. It's harder to see the rationale behind that plunge though and a bet on the unexposed Fozy Moss looks to offer much greater value. He won here about a month ago, coming clear with Farm Pixie who had himself been in the form of his life up to that point. Fozy Moss struggled at Musselburgh a week later, but there are plentiful excuses for that and, given more time, can be taken as an improver coming into today's race. Throw in the impression that trips beyond three miles will bring out the best in him and his case only gets stronger for this contest that will put the emphasis firmly on stamina.

Timeform UK SmartPlays

Back Edmund @ 2.1411/10 in the 15:45 Carlisle
Back Canadian Dreamer @ 7.413/2 in the 16:35 Wincanton
Back Fozy Moss @ 4.67/2 in the 16:45 Carlisle