"Up a lenient-looking 5 lb and in a race that, though competitive, perhaps isn’t as red-hot as it would appear at first glance, Lesha represents value at prices above 6.05/1."
Three Flat bets from around the country make up Thursday's SmartPlays.
We start with a fairly short-priced one at Yarmouth, though it's one that we simply must flag up as it looks as though Derbyshire (16:10) is little shy of a handicap rick. You can largely forget about his runs at two, besides the experience they afforded him, as he progressed markedly on firmer ground on his reappearance, looking as though he could even prove useful in time. Here he is in a handicap, from a BHA mark of 69 over a trip that will suit him better (bred to stay 10 furlongs at least). If Derbyshire continues to improve as looked likely here last time, he'll laugh at such a mark.
Haydock hosts a good card during the afternoon and the pick of the bests appears to come in the closer at 17:20. Lesha is another improving three-year-old from the Kevin Ryan yard. He's admittedly further along the curve than Derbyshire, though that curve has gone exponential in his last three starts, a short-head all that prevents him being on a four-timer here. He actually did well to win over this C&D last time, hampered in a messy race yet still mastering subsequent winner Voyageofdiscovery in the final furlong. Up a lenient-looking 5 lb and in a race that, though competitive, perhaps isn't as red-hot as it would appear at first glance, Lesha represents value at prices above 6.05/1.
There's another in the Derbyshire mould running in the last at Newbury this evening (21:10). Arabian Revolution is easy enough to spot, a debut winner for Godolphin pitched straight into handicaps, though weighing him up is more difficult and it strikes us that the layers have erred on the generous side. He looked a useful prospect in the first instance when winning in good style at Lingfield, the race having worked out favourably too so far as older-horse middle-distance maidens go. With this slightly longer trip at a more galloping track likely to suit, Arabian Revolution can be expected to improve on more than one score this evening and, with that considered, really should be up to overcoming a starting mark of 84.
Timeform UK SmartPlays
Back Derbyshire @ 2.767/4 in the 16:10 Yarmouth
Back Lesha @ 6.611/2 in the 17:20 Haydock
Back Arabian Revolution @ 3.39/4 in the 21:10 Newbury